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While the armies of Antiochus III and Ptolemy IV were feeling each other out at Raphia, a former Ptolemaic officer under the name of Theodotus planned to murder Ptolemy IV. He went to the King's tent one night just before the battle, but found that Ptolemy was not there, and thus his plan was foiled. Instead of being assassinated, Ptolemy IV would win a great victory at Raphia, and would rule Egypt until his death twelve years later in 205 BC. My question that I pose to AH.com is simple: what if Theodotus had succeeded in killing Ptolemy before Raphia? What happens at Raphia now - does Antiochus III press on, taking advantage of dynastic turmoil (like he would later on IOTL) in hopes of conquering Egypt? And how does this effect the nativist factions within Egypt who hope to drive out the Macedonians and set up their own Pharaoh again?

Of course the obvious thought is that this throws the Ptolemaic dynasty into turmoil. Ptolemy IV upon his ascension to the throne conducted great purges to wipe out possible claimants to the throne, including all of his younger brothers. Ptolemy himself, at this point, was childless. The heir seems to have been the second son of Ptolemy II, Lysimachus, whom I suppose was not deemed close enough to the throne for Ptolemy IV to have included him in his initial purge. Or perhaps more likely Ptolemy needed to keep an heir alive while he didn't have a son to succeed him; besides Ptolemy IV, he seems to be the last surviving Ptolemaic male.

An important factor that I wish I knew the answer to but don't is whether Lysimachus at the time was with the army at Raphia or if he was in Alexandria. The answer to that question could be very significant.
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