What if Prohibition Ended Early?

Hey there,

So I'm writing a big research paper for my history class and I want to do something on the gangster era. I figured because prohibition was the driving force behind organized crime I wanted to write my paper on what I think would have happened if the government decided to remove prohibition after just a few years instead of the 13 years it was really in effect for. Any ideas?

Thanks
 
In the 1932 of our time line, opposition to Prohibition gave Democratic Party presidential candidate Franklin D. Roosevelt a considerable advantage over his Republican rival, Herbert Hoover. If, however, Prohibition had already been repealed, Roosevelt would lacked this advantage. Moreover, if Prohibition had ended sometime between 1921 and 1932, its end would have taken place during a Republican administration, thereby giving Republicans much of the credit for its repeal. Taken together, these two factors might have been strong enough make Hoover the winner of the presidential election of 1932.
 

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Just as it is not easy to enact constitutional amendments, it is not easy to repeal them. The Great Depression made repeal much easier because the US government was running a massive deficit, and the idea that taxing a legalized liquor industry would help make up for it (without unpopular tax increases elsewhere or drastic spending cuts) became attractive. (The Depression also helped to discredit the argument--made quite seriously by a great economist, Irving Fisher-- that Prohibition was helping to keep America prosperous by improving worker productivity.)

Another reason repeal was unlikely much earlier than in OTL: Al Smith's defeat in 1928 was seen as a victory for Prohibition. This was probably wrong; prosperity, religion, Hoover's good reputation, and the fact that the Republicans were the majority party were almost certainly more important in Hoover's election than Prohibition. Montana provides an illustration: its voters rejected a state prohibition enforcement law by 54.09%-45.91%. http://tinyurl.com/o6ystyw On the same day, they also voted for Herbert Hoover over Al Smith 58.4%-40.5%. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1928.txt Nevertheless, Hoover's election did temporarily strengthen the prohibitionist ofrces in Congress, and only the Democratic gains of 1930 and especially 1932 made repeal plausible.

Making the 1928 election a true referendum on Prohibition without other issues like religion may help, but that would require the Democrats to nominate a strong Protestant anti-Prohibitionist, and I can't think of one who could beat Hoover. (The most prominent anti-Prohibition Protestant Democrat in the 1924 race, Oscar W. Underwood of Alabama, had retired from politics in 1926--he faced a tough re-election fight against the Klan-supported Hugo Black--and would die in 1929.) It's also unlikely that there will be a "dry Democrat vs. wet Republican" race. Both Hoover and his leading potential opponents--Frank Lowden of Illinois and Charles Curtis of Kansas--were "dry." So as usual it's hard to make the presidential race into a referendum on a single issue.

All in all, it is much easier to see Prohibition never enacted in the first place than repealed much earlier than it was.
 
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