What if PQ17 hadn't scattered

Infamously concerned about the threat from the Tirpitz the Admiralty scattered convoy PQ17 to Russia


24 merchant ships totalling 48,218 tons were sunk . 210 bombers , 430 tanks , 3350 vehicles and a little under 100 000 tons of ammunition, explosives and raw materials was lost.

Not all of this would have arrived if convoy hadn't scattered as some ships would still have been sunk but a lot more would have got through.

This convoy soured Allied Russian relations and left merchant seamen feeling betrayed and sapped the morale of the naval crews .

What if the convoy hadn't scattered .

what impact would those extra supplies have had on the Eastern front ?
 
The coolest outcome would have been a sortie that continued by Tirpitz and Hipper+Scheer and 6 destroyers fighting an action against the covering force of Duke of York, Washington, the aircraft carrier Victorious, 2 cruisers and 9 destroyers. A sort of Battle of the Denmark Strait on steroids.

Unlikely to happen as the Germans were under orders to run if they faced battleships but its possible.

If PQ17 hadn't scattered and made it through mostly intact then the decision to halt lend-lease convoys in the Summer months would not have been taken and the chance of a PQ17 style debacle might remain if the convoy system continues throughout 1942. On the flipside you could probably add another 2 convoys in 1942 to Russia so you are looking at three times the materiel you listed reaching Russia - this might significantly advance the counter-offensives against Case Blue, depending on the weather - which I think was ok that autumn.
 
Finnish signal intelligence had relatively little cooperation with the Germans, but they did intercept the signal traffic about PQ18 and ultimately opted to transfer the information to B-Dienst . The information allowed the Germans to prepare well in advantage and sink 13 ships from the convoy, stopping the convoy traffic via the Northern Route for three months as a result.
Edit: The Finns had intel on the Allied supply convoys even before PQ18, but Hallamaa opted to keep that information from the Germans. A potential POD related to the OP could be an instance where PMRadP keeps their secrets, leaving the Germans in the dark and allowing the convoy to pass with less effective German countermeasures.
 
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Interesting I wasn't aware of the Finnish involvement. They were rather between the devil and the deep blue sea .
Hallamaa had rather free hand in his intel efforts, and he never dealt with Germans unless he felt that they had something useful in return.
He received an Iron Cross after Finnish SigInt had informed Germans where their own encircled armored spearhead located near Tihvin, based on decrypted Soviet signals. This enabled the Germans to send in air supply and allowed their forces to conduct a successful breakout. After Hallamaa was presented with EK 1, he reportedly asked out loud: "I wonder how much this is worth in money after the war is lost?"
 
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