What if Poland, Yugoslavia and Turkey join Axis Powers?
1938, France goes to war over the annexation of slovakia that has Poland as a co-beluggerent, but Britain declines to participate. France is defeated, Yougoslavia never gas its coup. With a german-Poland Hungary, yugoskavia, alliance there is no molotov-ribbentrop pact and when Stalin nevertheless invaded bessarabia, Turkey is scared and joins the defence pact....
Not the mist plausible ever, but it is a tough task.
Not the mist plausible ever, but it is a tough task.
nbcman
Donor
At what time? When the term was coined in 1936 between Italy and Germany? With the signing of the Anti-Comintern Pact in 1936/7 with Germany, Italy and Japan? With the signing of Pact of Steel with Germany and Italy in early 1939? Or some other time? It would have to be prior to the Anglo-French guarantee of Poland.
EDIT for an unlikely sequence of events: The Anschluss goes hot: Germany invades Austria. Italy declares war on Germany. Yugoslavia fears Italian irredentism and joins Germany. Czechoslovakia declares war on Germany. Poland joins Germany to gain slices of Czechoslovakian territory. Turkey could join Germany if Greece decides to enter the war against the Axis or, less likely, if the Soviets enter the war.
EDIT for an unlikely sequence of events: The Anschluss goes hot: Germany invades Austria. Italy declares war on Germany. Yugoslavia fears Italian irredentism and joins Germany. Czechoslovakia declares war on Germany. Poland joins Germany to gain slices of Czechoslovakian territory. Turkey could join Germany if Greece decides to enter the war against the Axis or, less likely, if the Soviets enter the war.
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Deleted member 1487
I have no idea how Poland would, Yugoslavia did and the government was overthrown for their decision, while Turkey refused to join either side and would likely only join once it was clear that the Allies would lose. So I really don't see how it could happen short of Hitler being a lot more pragmatic. Also the Axis alliance, officially the Tripartite Pact, didn't happened until September 1940 for the first time and was aimed at the US. In the case of Poland I'd think first you'd need Hitler to not declare war on September 1st 1939 and let Goering work on Chamberlain to get him to work on the Poles to give up Danzig. As it was Chamberlain seems to have been on board with that and did get Poland to demobilize prior to the German invasion. So if that route is chosen, then WW2 is delayed until at least through 1940, as Germany then uses it's leverage with access to Danzig's port to get the Poles to knuckle under and effectively sign on to deals like an ATL Axis pact to avoid having their economy strangled by lack of access to Baltic via the Vistula river shipping route, which terminated at Danzig. Assuming that happens in 1940-41 then there is really no reason left for the Allies to get involved in a war with Germany; it also makes the Allies look weak, so perhaps then Yugoslavia will join in with Germany's pact for fear of her neighbors and lack of belief in Allies willingness to help them. Turkey is the tricky one in the trifecta though, likely they'd only join the Axis once the USSR was defeated. I'm thinking that an invasion of the USSR would be possible in 1941 if Poland joins the Axis in 1940-41 and the Allies would sit back, because they wouldn't fight to defend the USSR I'd think, though the circumstances in Europe would be so drastically different, who knows?
Slovakia was not annexed in 1938. Not even in 1939. On other side. After Munich and Vienna, Slovakia proclaimed independence in March 1939. With Czechoslovakia broken up, Czech lands become German Protectorate with their own
Government, President and even Army. This way Hitler could technicaly claim he didn't break Munich agreement.
Turkey is not going to join either side, regardless of what is said to them, until literally the last second. Period.
EDIT: Okay, maybe you could have an irredentist regime come to power in Turkey, however implausible this might be.
Poland and Yugoslavia did historically almost join the Axis, so that shouldn't be too hard.
Depending on when they all join the Axis, the Balkan Front will be a lot easier to manage for the Germans, and Operation Barbarossa will have both Turkey as a new base of operations, and a position much closer to Moskva in he form of Poland. It just might cause the Soviets to collapse in 1941, but I just don't see it happening. Maybe later. In Turkey, the Allies will probably launch an attack that is initially very successful, but then gets bogged down in the Anatolian mountains in a Messina-like fashion.
EDIT: Okay, maybe you could have an irredentist regime come to power in Turkey, however implausible this might be.
Poland and Yugoslavia did historically almost join the Axis, so that shouldn't be too hard.
Depending on when they all join the Axis, the Balkan Front will be a lot easier to manage for the Germans, and Operation Barbarossa will have both Turkey as a new base of operations, and a position much closer to Moskva in he form of Poland. It just might cause the Soviets to collapse in 1941, but I just don't see it happening. Maybe later. In Turkey, the Allies will probably launch an attack that is initially very successful, but then gets bogged down in the Anatolian mountains in a Messina-like fashion.
For Turkey to join the war they would demand massive military aid to assist in the defense of their eastern border against British (and possibly) Soviet attacks. Turkey would be a rather valuable ally to Germany as Turkey was where they got shipments of Chromite Ore, a vital component in Stainless Steel production so they would likely be willing to send military aid just to make sure that those shipments don't stop. Speer had a comment to the attune of "Without those shipments, production would halt within six months". I can't find the exact quote right now. Will provide a link when I have more time to dig through some sources.
Turkey had a peace time army of 174,000 men which didn't start seeing increase until the start of 1940, at that time they mustered ~230,000 men, one armoured brigade, and three cavalry brigades with four corps stationed in the eastern "frontiers" of the nation, one corps in Thrace and one in reserve. But almost all of the equipment was pre-WW1 with rifles like the Lee Enfield, Lebel, Masuiers etc. being used, this could easily be remedied with Italian or German made weaponry but it is still something to consider. They had fortifications along the Dardanelles and along the outer regions of the country to the East, including heavy works at Erzurum, Kars, Adana amoung some others. The airforce was 370 planes of all type with only about half of them being modern even though they had over 8,000 men in their airforce.
Depending on when Barbarossa takes place, this could potentially spell an interesting picture for the med. theater. The Turkish and Romanian navy could both possibly come to bare against the British, especially if a campaign in Greece and North Africa takes place. So long as the Soviets don't get involved, that would add two (albiet weak) navies to aid the Italians in action. The Turkish navy consisted of the outdated battle cruiser Yavuz (ex-Goeben), 4 destroyers, 5-6 submarines, 2 light cruisers, 3 mine-sweepers, 2 gunboats, 3 motor torpedo boats, 4 minelayers and a surveying vessel. The Romanian navy consisted of four destroyers, twelve torpedo boats, four gunboats, six minelayers, three amphibious landing self-propelled barges, four submarine chasers, three submarines and five midget submarines.
It could also allow the Black sea to be under "axis control", with Italian and German ships (as well as the Turkish and Romanian navy) to defeat Filipp Oktyabrsky and prevent the vital aid the fleet gave to important sieges like Odessa in 1941 (evacuating 86,000 soldiers and over 150,000 civilians), Sevastopol that could make the city fall at the end of 1941 instead of mid 1942. This would also prevent the counter-attack at Kerch and (possibly) allow the Germans to cross over the straight themselves or be able to have the 11th army properly act as the flanking guard for AGS at the start of 1942 like they were instructed too and allow an additional 600 aircraft (including a heavy mix of Medium bombers, and dive bombers) to be deployed elsewhere. Wiking or ObssesedNuker would know much more regarding that then me though.
For Yugoslavia it wouldn't make much a difference all-told. The nation had about 4,000 artillery pieces, many were aged and horse-drawn, around 1,700 of these were relatively modern, including 812 Czech 37mm and 47mm anti-tank guns. There were also about 2,300 mortars, including 1,600 modern 81 millimetres pieces, as well as twenty-four 220 millimetres and 305 millimetres pieces each. Of 940 anti-aircraft guns, 360 were 15 millimetres and 20 millimetres Czech and Italian models. All of these arms were imported from different sources, which meant that the various models often lacked proper repair and maintenance facilities. The only mechanized units were 6 motorized infantry battalions in the three cavalry divisions, six motorized artillery regiments, two tank battalions equipped with 110 tanks, one of which had Renault FT models of World War I origin and the other 54 modern French Renault R35 tanks (which out-performed Panzer III's to a large extent) plus an independent tank company with eight Czech SI-D tank destroyers.
Fully mobilized, the Yugoslav Army could have put 28 infantry divisions, three cavalry divisions, and 35 independent regiments in the field. Of the independent regiments, 16 were in frontier fortifications and 19 were organized as combined detachments, around the size of a reinforced brigade. Each detachment had one to three infantry regiments and one to three artillery battalions, with three organised as "alpine" units."
Turkey had a peace time army of 174,000 men which didn't start seeing increase until the start of 1940, at that time they mustered ~230,000 men, one armoured brigade, and three cavalry brigades with four corps stationed in the eastern "frontiers" of the nation, one corps in Thrace and one in reserve. But almost all of the equipment was pre-WW1 with rifles like the Lee Enfield, Lebel, Masuiers etc. being used, this could easily be remedied with Italian or German made weaponry but it is still something to consider. They had fortifications along the Dardanelles and along the outer regions of the country to the East, including heavy works at Erzurum, Kars, Adana amoung some others. The airforce was 370 planes of all type with only about half of them being modern even though they had over 8,000 men in their airforce.
Depending on when Barbarossa takes place, this could potentially spell an interesting picture for the med. theater. The Turkish and Romanian navy could both possibly come to bare against the British, especially if a campaign in Greece and North Africa takes place. So long as the Soviets don't get involved, that would add two (albiet weak) navies to aid the Italians in action. The Turkish navy consisted of the outdated battle cruiser Yavuz (ex-Goeben), 4 destroyers, 5-6 submarines, 2 light cruisers, 3 mine-sweepers, 2 gunboats, 3 motor torpedo boats, 4 minelayers and a surveying vessel. The Romanian navy consisted of four destroyers, twelve torpedo boats, four gunboats, six minelayers, three amphibious landing self-propelled barges, four submarine chasers, three submarines and five midget submarines.
It could also allow the Black sea to be under "axis control", with Italian and German ships (as well as the Turkish and Romanian navy) to defeat Filipp Oktyabrsky and prevent the vital aid the fleet gave to important sieges like Odessa in 1941 (evacuating 86,000 soldiers and over 150,000 civilians), Sevastopol that could make the city fall at the end of 1941 instead of mid 1942. This would also prevent the counter-attack at Kerch and (possibly) allow the Germans to cross over the straight themselves or be able to have the 11th army properly act as the flanking guard for AGS at the start of 1942 like they were instructed too and allow an additional 600 aircraft (including a heavy mix of Medium bombers, and dive bombers) to be deployed elsewhere. Wiking or ObssesedNuker would know much more regarding that then me though.
For Yugoslavia it wouldn't make much a difference all-told. The nation had about 4,000 artillery pieces, many were aged and horse-drawn, around 1,700 of these were relatively modern, including 812 Czech 37mm and 47mm anti-tank guns. There were also about 2,300 mortars, including 1,600 modern 81 millimetres pieces, as well as twenty-four 220 millimetres and 305 millimetres pieces each. Of 940 anti-aircraft guns, 360 were 15 millimetres and 20 millimetres Czech and Italian models. All of these arms were imported from different sources, which meant that the various models often lacked proper repair and maintenance facilities. The only mechanized units were 6 motorized infantry battalions in the three cavalry divisions, six motorized artillery regiments, two tank battalions equipped with 110 tanks, one of which had Renault FT models of World War I origin and the other 54 modern French Renault R35 tanks (which out-performed Panzer III's to a large extent) plus an independent tank company with eight Czech SI-D tank destroyers.
Fully mobilized, the Yugoslav Army could have put 28 infantry divisions, three cavalry divisions, and 35 independent regiments in the field. Of the independent regiments, 16 were in frontier fortifications and 19 were organized as combined detachments, around the size of a reinforced brigade. Each detachment had one to three infantry regiments and one to three artillery battalions, with three organised as "alpine" units."
thaddeus
Donor
Poland invades Lithuania in 1938 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Polish_ultimatum_to_Lithuania they discover they've fallen in with a bad crowd (too late.)
Germany-Poland-Japan was the Phantom Alliance that was very feared in USSR
Germany-Poland-Japan was the Phantom Alliance that was very feared in USSR
The 1938 ultimatum was never meant for war. Poland didn't want to go to war with Lithuania. It was meant to force Lithuania to accept the occupation of Vilnius and it did that job.
If Poland is in the Axis, Lithuania will just accept losing Vilnius and that's it.
For Poland the only scenario I can envision in which it joins the Axis is:
1. Sudety crisis ends in a German-Czechoslovakian war
2. USSR decides to get their forces to Czechoslovakia no matter what and at the same time use a convenient excuse and invades Poland. And declares war on Germany as well.
3. France declares war on Germany.
So you end with effective German-Polish Alliance against USSR-Czechoslovakia.
But Poland is not going to declare war on France. Both the common people as well as government were too francofilic for that to happen.
And I don't see why France would declare war on Poland either.
And delivery of that ultimatum was agrred beforehand between both governments.
1. Sudety crisis ends in a German-Czechoslovakian war
2. USSR decides to get their forces to Czechoslovakia no matter what and at the same time use a convenient excuse and invades Poland. And declares war on Germany as well.
3. France declares war on Germany.
So you end with effective German-Polish Alliance against USSR-Czechoslovakia.
But Poland is not going to declare war on France. Both the common people as well as government were too francofilic for that to happen.
And I don't see why France would declare war on Poland either.
And delivery of that ultimatum was agrred beforehand between both governments.