Yes how about a Crimean War in which Austria, Prussia and Sweden join in against Russia and the Russians are crushed and driven out of Poland, Finland, Basarabia and the Baltic lands?
That is the point, and it was true in 1815, in 1860 and in 1918: if 1918 went in a different way it was because Russia, Germany and Austria were in chaos.Who actually wants a free Poland, at least among the victors?
I was making a list but I realized the same answer went for all of them. Even if Poland was carved out of territory owned by [some other nation], it would be a lightning rod for Polish unrest in their own lands. No one wanted to give the Poles delusions of grandeur.
That is the point, and it was true in 1815, in 1860 and in 1918: if 1918 went in a different way it was because Russia, Germany and Austria were in chaos.
If the neighbors of Poland had seen the benefit of buffer state, they would not have partitioned Poland after all.
Why would Prussia side against Russia in the 1850s? They didn't really have any conflicting interests while sharing the desire to keep Poland off of the map. They aren't looking for Liebensraum as their eventual successors would and, if anything, they'd side with Russia if it meant keeping Austria from getting too strong (they threatened to join the Ottomans during the Austro-Turkish War a few decades prior to keep the Austrians from getting too much of a foothold in the Balkans). The Prussians at this point are far more interested in German dominance than Polish lands and Austria's a greater threat to that than Russia was at that point.
None of the Partitioners are going to want to let Poland be resurrected, not during the 1850s. Finland, meh, but there's not enough interest in the Baltics by the Great Powers, compared to the Balkans, at least, to have the peace touch that region. The rest of Bessarabia might go to Moldavia if Russia loses hard enough.
Well, not only Prussia never made a move to go against Russia in 1854 but even if they had wanted they could not have done anything helpful: this is the same Prussia which in 1853 had been utterly cowed by Austria-Hungary at the punctuation of Olmutz, and whose army (which had underperformed during the 1st war of Schleswig-Holstein was in the worst possible shape. OTOH when the new Polish insurrection came about in 1863, Prussia was the only European nation to support the harsh Russian repression and after it was put down kept her friendship for Russia which got the cold shoulder from Paris and London and was more or less in the dog-house. It was not a surprise that Russia and Prussia were in very good relations in both 1866 and 1870.It's the dog pile effect. If everyone else is beating on Russia why shouldn't Prussia join in and get something? Russia's clearly going to lose, you may as well get something from the massive geopolitical realignment.