What if Poland became independent in 1815?

What if Britain, France and Austria got their way and Poland stayed independent in 1815? How would this affect events such as the Crimean war, Italian and German wars of unification and the German-French war of 1870?
 
Russia hardly accepts that. And hardly Austria and Prussia too. Them has too much losing to allowing any kind of independent Poland.
 
It will just get conquered again. Russia will invade it, or Prussia will. Both of which are far stronger.

For Poland to exist, it has to be much stronger than its neighbours (Medieval Poland through PL-Commonwealth time), or have good allies for neighbours (USSR in the cold war). Else it ends up dead.

- BNC
 
IMHO you are making a reference to the Saxon crisis in late 1814 (Prussia backed by Russia wanted to annex all of Saxony). None of the Powers made a noise about the possibility of a Polish independence: Prussia, Russia and Austria had carved up Poland and it would be very strange if one of them would back-step without any reason. UK had other interests, and anyway they were backing Austria. France (or better Talleyrand) was looking to come out of the revolutionary and Napoleonic war in the best possible shape, and were backing Austria and UK
 
My understanding is that Poland had plenty of potential strength to ensure its independence, but due to its failure to centralize and empower their government they were never able to actually use all the resources at their disposal. What it essentially takes is an earlier POD that takes at least some power from the Sejm, or at least change the rules so that a single vote cannot veto even something passed by an overwhelming majority, which made it far too easy for foreign powers and even internal ones to neuter Polish attempts to modernize its military and raise troops to respond to invasion.

Of course I am no expert on the time period so correct me if I'm wrong, but the reading I have done indicates that the only reason Prussia, Austria and Russia were able to partition Poland in the first place was because of this internal political failure in Poland. Only rarely did they "team up" or coordinate in any meaningful manner to partition Poland. At the risk of repeating myself I'd say that they likely would have stayed independent if they could only form a strong central government and make use of all that was available to them.
 
Poland already got the best deal it could realistically get, becoming an autonomous state with it's own constitution, just the problems is that the Russians didn't care about it's existence much.

I think we should first find a way to have Russia honor the OTL deal on Congress Poland and only then move on to independence.
 
Poland already got the best deal it could realistically get, becoming an autonomous state with it's own constitution, just the problems is that the Russians didn't care about it's existence much.

I think we should first find a way to have Russia honor the OTL deal on Congress Poland and only then move on to independence.

Didn't Poland begin lost its autonomy due several revolts?
 
Didn't Poland begin lost its autonomy due several revolts?
Yes, but even before the uprisings, the Tsar blatantly disregarded the constitution of Congress Poland, most notably by appointing Grand Duke Constantine as the ruler of the region, despite the constitution saying that Poland and Russia are united in a personal union and it thus should be ruled directly by the Tsar.
 
De iure Kingdom of Poland was independent state in personal union with Russia until idiotic November Uprising.

De facto, Poland was a russian colony and the majority of poles were serves for polish or russian noble landlords.

So for them, de jure independance was a sad joke.
 
De facto, Poland was a russian colony and the majority of poles were serves for polish or russian noble landlords.

So for them, de jure independance was a sad joke.
There were no Russian landlords in Congress Poland. And the fact that most of would-be Poles (peasants at the time don't have national identity yet) are serfs is irrelevant-the same could be said about Russia.
Britain, France and Austria would be interested in full Polish independence only if restored Poland is strong enough to serve as counterbalance to Russia (that's mean more or less 1772 borders) and it is possible only if Russia is screwed.
 
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There were no Russian landlords in Congress Poland. And the fact that most of would-be Poles (peasants at the time don't have national identity yet) are serfs is irrelevant-the same could be said about Russia.
Britain, France and Austria would be interested in full Polish independence only if restored Poland is strong enough to serve as counterbalance to Russia (that's mean more or less 1772 borders) and it is possible only if Russia is screwed.
What about as a smaller buffer state between Russia and the German states?
 
Yeah, but that was de jure independence that didn't mean anything. It pretty much was a part of the Russian Empire in all but name.
Not exactly, just like post ww2 Poland was not part of Soviet Union. It was far from full independence but better than nothing. And without November Uprising Russo-Prussian relations would be worse than OTL. It is likely that instead of uprising there will be war with Prussia around the time of Spring of Nations or alternate Crimean War.
 
So no chance for an independent Poland in 1815? How about later in the 19th century?

Perhaps with very different Crimean War where Prussia might make Poland buffer state. But even this is bit difficult. Or then with some way there is Great War at least twenty years earlier. But even this scenario Poland probably ends as part of Germany, depending what kind of politics Germany has.
 
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