What if Poland attacked Germany first?

[King Thomas]

Poland between the wars had a very effective secret service. What if it found Germany was to attack them on September 1st 1939 and attacked Germany in August, taking Germany by suprise? Do they have any hope of success?

 

[Valdemar II]

Poland between the wars had a very effective secret service. What if it found Germany was to attack them on September 1st 1939 and attacked Germany in August, taking Germany by suprise? Do they have any hope of success?

No, but they've just insured that France and UK stay neutral.

 

[Markus]

No, but they've just insured that France and UK stay neutral.

I could hardly concur more!

 

[General Zod]

I concur that the main effect of the PoD would be France and Britain breathing a huge whisper of relief and letting Poland out to dry when the inevitable successful German counterattack wipes her out. Of course, this would butterfly WWII massively as France and Britain would be bereft of a casus belli against Germany and will eagerly stay out of the war in Europe.

Most likely, there will just be an isolated war between Germany and Russia. It is possible that this war might just erupt in 1939 if Germany and Russia clash over Eastern Poland. But it is moe likely that they are able to walk away from the brink (since both countries and their leaders would be unprepared and hence unwilling to fight this war in 1939) and agree to a last-minute partition scheme of Poland, so Barbarossa would still occur on schedule in May 1941.

As it concerns the war in the Pacific, it is possible that Japan would eschew attacking an intact Britain and France (and Britain would most likely enter the war if Japan attacks the Dutch West Indies). This might butterfly away Pearl Harbor and USA in the WWII. If a German-Soviet war does occur, the easiest target for the Japanese becomes the USSR. Id' say that in this situation, Northern and Southern stretegies become equally likely.

As it concerns the PoD itself, I'd reckon that a true reversal of OTL, Poland making a true unprovoked pre-emptive war, is possible but politically not very likely. I would propose a different IMO more likely scenario.

It assumes a somewhat more politically savy German leadership realizes that outright aggression of Poland would goad the British into war, so it sets up a trap for Warsaw. Germany covertly arms and finances a sucessful grass-roots insurrection of the German population in Danzig. The rebellion seizes the territory of the Free City and asks for annexation of Danzig to the Reich. German troops enter the city, but not Polish territory. Poland mobilizes and sends troops to the border of the Free City, threatening war if the Germans do not withdraw. Germany, of course, refuses. Polish troops attack Danzig. German troops counterattack over the whole border. Britain declares that her garantee to Poland is not valid given the circumstances.

 

[King Thomas]

You should do a timeline of that, General.

 

[Fletch]

Poland between the wars had a very effective secret service. What if it found Germany was to attack them on September 1st 1939 and attacked Germany in August, taking Germany by suprise? Do they have any hope of success?

They didn't attack first in OTL?



I'm not being serious.

 

[General Zod]

OK, here's a very rough outline:

April 1939: After Britain has given a garantee of independence to Poland, Goering successfully talks Hitler into reluctantly agreeing that an excuse for the Britsh to "save face" must be given and Poland should be goaded into giving Germany a casus belli. Plans are drafted about Operation Tannenberg: Nazi Germany organizing a nationalistic uprising in the Free City of Danzig and its annexation to Germany by a "revolutionary situation". Alongside with fomenting unrest in Polish areas inhabited by German minorities, it is expcted that Poland will react to the situation by escalating military confrontation and give Germany an excuse for war.

May-June 1939: many weapons, SS operatives, and Nazi agitators are smuggled into the Free City of Danzig by Germany.

July-August 1939: Repeated street demonstrations of increasing size occur in Danzig calling for national self-determination and union with Germany; clashes with Polish customs police are frequent. Similar demonstrations also occur in border areas of Poland with German minorities, such as the Corridor and Upper Silesia.

Germany makes increasing requests for a border revision, pointing out to disorders among the German population in Danzig, the Corridor, and Upper Silesia. A plan asking for the reincorporation fo Danzig into the Reich and a plebiscite in the Corridor and Upper Silesia by the 1918 population is presented. Secretely, territorial compensation in Belarus and Ukraine are promised. The Polish government refuses.

Secret talks between Germany and the USSR led to the Molotov-Ribbentrop treaty. A secret protocol provides for the partition of Poland and Eastern Europe in German and Soviet spheres of influence: the URSS is granted the right to eastern Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland. Germany reserves the right to control Lithuania, western Poland, and Romania.

September 1-2, 1939: an insurrection by Nazi sympathizers and German nationalists takes place in the Free City of Danzig. Well-armed and supported by plainclothes SS operatives, the insurgents are quickly able to gain control of the city. Resistance by Polish agents is overcome. The Parliament of the Free City, overwhelmed by the insurgency and spurred by Nazist members, proclaims annexation to Germany by the two-thirds majority required to alter the Consitution of the Free City.

September 3, 1939: following the proclamation by the Free City's Parliament, the German Army enters the Free City. Armed conflict ensues with the Polish garrison at the Westerplatte and armed Polish postal workers.

September 4, 1939: Poland threatens war if the preexisting situation and the League of nations control is not restored in the Free City. Germany refuses to withdraw, declaring the reunification with the Reich irreversible and restating her plan for a plebiscite in contended areas.

September 5-6, 1939: Britain and France call for direct talks between Germany and Poland over disputed areas, reaffirming their committment to safeguard Polish independence. They also warn Poland that they might not be willing to fight to preserve Poland's territorial integrity or the status quo in Danzig. Italy proposes an internatinal conference on the issue akin to the Munich one. Poland is hesitant to committ to a conference, fearing to be cornered into territorial concessions. An impatient Hitler orders to step up the campaign of agitation among the German minority in Poland and to stage covert mobilization of German forces.

September 8-9, 1939: clashes between the Polish police and German nationalists occur in border areas of the Corridor and Upper Silesia.

September 11, 1939: Alarmed by Nazi agitations in the Corridor and Upper Silesia, and hoping to catch Germany unprepared, Poland mobilizes and sends an ultimatum asking for the withdrawal of German forces from Danzig. In Berlin, Hitler sees the chance to goad Poland into acting rashly and fulfill the Tannenberg Plan, and sends a flat refusal, asking for a border revision. Unbeknowest to Poland, Germany has already concentrated her forces on the Polish border.

September 12, 1939: Polish troops enter the Free City and mass on the German border. Combat quickly erupts in the Free City and quickly expands to the whole border between Poland and Prussia.

September 13, 1939: Combat expands to the whole German-Polish border.

September 15, 1939: Hitler declares a state of war exists between Germany and Poland and orders the Wehrmacht to begin a general counterattack across the border.

September 16-17, 1939: Anglo-French calls for mutual withdrawal fail as both sides refuse them. Poland asks for German withdrawal from Danzig and secretly pressures France to heed the mutual defence treaty and exploit "German weakness". Hitler states in a speech that Germany is fighting to defend German Volk in Danzig, the Corridor and Upper Silesia from the "Versailles tyranny". He sends a note to the British government stating that after "Polish aggression", the war aim of Germany is restoration of the 1914 borders and destruction of Polish "hostile forces".

The UK government delivers that in the light of Poland's actions in Danzig and Prussia, British garantee to Poland is no more automatically valid, and the stated war aim of Germany does not require an immediate intervention by Britain. France agrees to heed the same policy.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

King Thomas, no chance of success nor of trying this sans the weeks needed for full mobilization, which did not take place in OTL largely due to Anglo-French meddling.



In Zod's scenario Great Britain has apparently decided to forfeit all credibility in the face of a FOURTH case of German territorial aggression so we can confidentally predict the fall of Chamberlain by late September. Nor is France interested in forfeiting yet another ally, and Germany's behavior is too blatantly repetitive of actions in Czechoslovakia for blaming Poland to have any credibility.

What DOES happen is that Poland has time to fully mobilize, hand out all of the UR anti-tank rifles, and finish deploying the second armored brigade, possibly even finishing the acquisition of 5-6 squadrons of fighters from Romania and elsewhere.

German losses are more than doubled, war proceeds as OTL.

 

[General Zod]

In Zod's scenario Great Britain has apparently decided to forfeit all credibility in the face of a FOURTH case of German territorial aggression so we can confidentally predict the fall of Chamberlain by late September.

I think you are grossly underestimating the political consequences of Poland shooting first here. OTL, there was a very clear case of German naked aggression. In my scenario, things are nowhere so black-and-white. Poland has started a war to retain her control over a German city which has showed clearly its willingness to shed the Versailles status quo. British garantee was to defend Polish independence, not territorial integrity nor the Danzig status quo, and it was defensive anyway. Why British boys should rush to die in order to defend Polish rights over Danzig or the Corridor, when Poland has unwisely fired the first shot ?

Oh surely had not Poland taken the bait Hitler would have eventually lost patience and ordered to attack, but Poland attacks first ITTL, and it changes everything.

Nor is France interested in forfeiting yet another ally,

1930s France will never go to war without Britain, the old French-Polish alliance utterly pales to insignificance in comparison.

and Germany's behavior is too blatantly repetitive of actions in Czechoslovakia for blaming Poland to have any credibility.

Czechoslovakia never did choose war on her own nor made a preemptive attack (and had she chosen to do so, Britain and France would have immediately thrown her to the wolves, they would never accept a minor erstwhile ally bringing them into a major war against their advice and prior consent).

German losses are more than doubled, war proceeds as OTL.

Maybe somewhat higher losses, very doubtful a doubling, since the Polish war plan was crap anyway, even more so if they go on the offensive and overextend themselves even more, but a worthy sacrifice if Germany can avoid war with the Western Democracies.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Zod, do you even bother to read your own posts any more?

You have Germany blatantly seizing Danzig after sending in arms and men to foment a 'native' revolt, then doing the same on a larger scale in the Polish Corridor and Silesia. All this on top of Austria, Czechoslovakia, the utter violation of Munich in 1939 AND the seizure of Memel.

Under these circumstances no one is going to believe Poland started the war, barring an all-out invasion of Germany which Poland has neither the ability nor the intention of launching.

 

[General Zod]

You have Germany blatantly seizing Danzig after sending in arms and men to foment a 'native' revolt, then doing the same on a larger scale in the Polish Corridor and Silesia.

Still quite different from sending the whole Wehrmacht across the Polish border in an unprovoked attack.

However, I've slightly reworded the TL to tone down the severity of incidents in Polish border areas a bit.

Under these circumstances no one is going to believe Poland started the war,

But she still precipitated it by reckless escalation. Clever German provocation puts it before the choice to give up Danzig after it was lost to German nationalistic takeover, or rush to war. Anglo-French casus belli is much more dubious here, from their PoV it is quite questionable that safeguarding Polish access to Danzig or territorial integrity of contested areas is worth a major European war. Oh, had Germany invaded Poland first, it would have been all different.

barring an all-out invasion of Germany which Poland has neither the ability nor the intention of launching.

Ahh, they had not the ability, but they were sufficiently overconfident in their army and stubborn over Danzig to rush into attacking the Germans first to keep the Free City. Here's the cleverness of the German trap in this scenario. They do not shoot first along the German-Polish border. They simply stir up agitation among German minorities and a "native" revolution in Danzig, then enter Danzig peacefully after the insurrection has won and has called them in, then wait for the trap to spring. Demonstrations by German nationalists in the Corridor and Polish Silesia is simply more red for the Polish bull. The Poles go over the Free City with guns blazing and the fighting quickly spreads to the whole Prussian border and eventually the whole frontier. The Wehrmacht waits a couple days of combat before crossing the border en masse.

If you wish a comparison, it's transplanting the 2008 Georgia War scenario in 1939 Poland.

 

[Blue Max]

If you wish a comparison, it's transplanting the 2008 Georgia War scenario in 1939 Poland.

Chamberlain's government is gone.

The point is that everyone knows that Germany wanted this war, and let's not forget that "Atrocities against Sudenten Germans" was the listed reason for territorial concessions from the Czechs. The World already knows that Germany can not be trusted after the occupation of Bohemia and Morarvia--given another 'incident' would the world really buy this crap?

I doubt it.

OTL, Germany created an incident of its own, furnishing several dead criminals with Polish Army Uniforms outside a radio station in Eastern Germany. The World saw through that lie--and it would see through this one.

Frankly, all the goodwill was gone after the Occupation of Bohemia--and how is the UK going to react to Germany's efforts here? Probably the same way they did OTL--launch furious complaints and then set an ultimatium for a withdrawal from Poland. Hitler won't withdraw and the Allies will go to war--and all that's happened is that the outbreak of war is somewhat murkier than OTL. But, fundamentally, little has changed.

Poland's attack against Germany in this case is an attempt to enforce civil order within its own borders from efforts fomented by Nazi Germany. Sure, you've extended the Nazi Propaganda machine and given Leni Riefenstahl a great story to embellish but the world is not going to stand for this.

Throw in the Soviet Movement into Eastern Poland, and I think you've got all the evidence that allies could ever want. If Germany is truly innocent, it would not have made protocols with the Soviet Union of how to divvie up Poland--which is obviously provocative.

Germany is still clearly planning a war and forcing one on the world. Even if Chamberlain gets ejected, the resultant government will declare war on Germany perhaps three days later. Owing to the lack of effort France and the UK put into the conflict 1939-40, I doubt this does much of anything.

 

[Michele]

Chamberlain's government is gone.

The point is that everyone knows that Germany wanted this war, and let's not forget that "Atrocities against Sudenten Germans" was the listed reason for territorial concessions from the Czechs. The World already knows that Germany can not be trusted after the occupation of Bohemia and Morarvia--given another 'incident' would the world really buy this crap?

I doubt it.

OTL, Germany created an incident of its own, furnishing several dead criminals with Polish Army Uniforms outside a radio station in Eastern Germany. The World saw through that lie--and it would see through this one.

Frankly, all the goodwill was gone after the Occupation of Bohemia--and how is the UK going to react to Germany's efforts here? Probably the same way they did OTL--launch furious complaints and then set an ultimatium for a withdrawal from Poland. Hitler won't withdraw and the Allies will go to war--and all that's happened is that the outbreak of war is somewhat murkier than OTL. But, fundamentally, little has changed.

Poland's attack against Germany in this case is an attempt to enforce civil order within its own borders from efforts fomented by Nazi Germany. Sure, you've extended the Nazi Propaganda machine and given Leni Riefenstahl a great story to embellish but the world is not going to stand for this.

Throw in the Soviet Movement into Eastern Poland, and I think you've got all the evidence that allies could ever want. If Germany is truly innocent, it would not have made protocols with the Soviet Union of how to divvie up Poland--which is obviously provocative.

Germany is still clearly planning a war and forcing one on the world. Even if Chamberlain gets ejected, the resultant government will declare war on Germany perhaps three days later. Owing to the lack of effort France and the UK put into the conflict 1939-40, I doubt this does much of anything.

Just to say I agree.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by General Zod

Ahh, they had not the ability, but they were sufficiently overconfident in their army and stubborn over Danzig to rush into attacking the Germans first to keep the Free City. Here's the cleverness of the German trap in this scenario. They do not shoot first along the German-Polish border. They simply stir up agitation among German minorities and a "native" revolution in Danzig, then enter Danzig peacefully after the insurrection has won and has called them in, then wait for the trap to spring. Demonstrations by German nationalists in the Corridor and Polish Silesia is simply more red for the Polish bull. The Poles go over the Free City with guns blazing and the fighting quickly spreads to the whole Prussian border and eventually the whole frontier. The Wehrmacht waits a couple days of combat before crossing the border en masse.

Poles were overconfident in their army, but not that much. They believed they were able to hold their own against Germany till western allies start their offensive. They were wrong.
Poland had an Intervention Corps prepared just for the scenario you describe (2 infantry divisions, 1 cavalry regiment and tank batalion) and it would have been more than enought to crush any Danzig revolution in a day - without Wehrmacht support. I'd like to remind you that all Germans had in Danzig was units of police, SS Heimwehr Danzig and SA. And at that time those forces weren't exactly the best. They weren't even able to capture Polish Post Office without military help. So if (and that is a big IF) Poles enter Danzig, German rebelion is stopped very quickly - we're talking about over 25,000 of well armed and probably better trained soldiers, with Danzig Poles as guides. German Army would have needed to enter Danzig before Poles - and their howling about Polish aggression would have been ignored, since it would have been them to break the peace. If Poles get into Danzig first, they can say they simply protect their rights given to them by the League of Nations. They also have support of High Comissioner of LN, who confirms, that Danzig Germans fired first shot. Poles were quite happy with status quo, Germans wanted to change it. Who's breaking the peace here?
As far as German nationalists in Corridor and Silesia goes, they were definitively minority there (we're talking 1939) and their rebellion would have ended quickly and badly for them. And the western allies would have said nothing against Polish repressions (unless Poles go much too far), since every country has the right to punish its traitors - and those Germans were Polish citizens.

 

[General Zod]

I gladly acknowledge the fundamental political difficulty that Hitler's breach of trust over the terms of Munich created. Indeed, that is the main problem about avoiding a general war over the Polish issue. Invasion of Bohemia-Moravia was Hitler's first catastrophic political blunder on the path to defeat.

However, the PoD asked for a scenario where the positions of Germany and Poland would be to some degree reversed, and I find Poland going for a true preemptive war rather unfeasible, without PoDs way back in the 1930s (not entirely impossible, given the degree of bullheaded nationalistic overconfidence widespread in the Polish leadership of the time). On the contrary, I do believe a scenario is quite politically feasible where Poland escalates to extensive use of military force in an attempt to preserve Danzig status quo. And this would be the least-extensive PoD to fulfill the scenario.

I'm still persuaded that in the absence of the invasion of Bohemia-Moravia and consequent British lack of trust in Hitler would most likely not intervene if a polically savy German leadership foments a successful irredentist insurrection of Danzig and Poland escalates to war as a result.

Of course, the true interest of such a scenario is the lack of Anglo-British intervention since I think we can all agree a TL where the Anglo-French enter the war an handful of days later causes no real perceivable historical divergence and hence lacks interest.

I would therefore propose a more extensive PoD. Taking inspiration from another current WWII thread, assume that Hitler is assassinated on November 8, 1938 (PoD: lone gunman assassin Georg Elser decides to kill Hitler one year earlier, in mid-late 1937, so he is able to set up the bomb in the 1938 commemoration of the Beer Hall Putsch, there is no fog in Berlin and the bomb goes off as planned, killing Hitler). Goering takes over and enforces a more moderate agenda for expansion in Central Europe. After the Slovaks break out and become an independent German satellite in March 1939, he uses less blatant threats of blockade to get the encircled Czechs to accept economic satellization and military alliance with Germany, but never invades Bohemia-Moravia. With Poland, after attempts to reach an agreement for alliance and cession of German claims in exhange for compensations in Lithuania, Belarus, and Ukraine fail, he pursues the scheme described upthread.

With lack of the invasion of Bohemia-Moravia, greater overall popularity of Goering among British elites, and clever provocation of Poland in Danzig, I really do not see the UK and France intervening in the German-Polish-Soviet war.

 

[General Zod]

Chamberlain's government is gone.

The point is that everyone knows that Germany wanted this war, and let's not forget that "Atrocities against Sudenten Germans" was the listed reason for territorial concessions from the Czechs. The World already knows that Germany can not be trusted after the occupation of Bohemia and Morarvia--given another 'incident' would the world really buy this crap?

Very good point. See a workaround PoD for this upthread.

OTL, Germany created an incident of its own, furnishing several dead criminals with Polish Army Uniforms outside a radio station in Eastern Germany. The World saw through that lie--and it would see through this one.

Honestly, an handful of fake dead Polish soldiers outside a radio station would be entire degrees of magnitude different from Poland sending a whole invasion army of genuine Polish soldiers to reestablish the Versailles status quo by force after a sucessful irredentist insurrection of the Danzig population. The whole huge difference between obvious fabrication and genuine escalation.

Frankly, all the goodwill was gone after the Occupation of Bohemia

I see the problem, so let's extend the PoD and remove the invasion of Bohemia.

Poland's attack against Germany in this case is an attempt to enforce civil order within its own borders from efforts fomented by Nazi Germany.

True for the Corridor and Upper Silesia, false for Danzig. Besides, the rights of Germany to those areas were rather questionable as self-determination goes, Danzig was 95% German and Poland had no legitimacy there but Versailles diktat, which the Anglo-Franch public was exceedingly hesistant to die for in the 1930s.

Throw in the Soviet Movement into Eastern Poland, and I think you've got all the evidence that allies could ever want.

Heh, if the Anglo-French wait until the URSS invades Eastern Poland, I'm rather doubtful that they will enter the war afterwards. Restoring Polish independence by that point would require to DoW both Germany and the URSS.

If Germany is truly innocent, it would not have made protocols with the Soviet Union of how to divvie up Poland--which is obviously provocative.

Please, neither Germany nor the URSS are any likely to make those partition protocols any public. The URSS will merely express strong support of Germany's position against "warmongering" Poland.

And even if Stalin and the German Fuhrer had the gall to make a public partition agreement, that would instantly make it very dubious any intention of the UK and France to help Poland. Are they are going to war both great powers for the sake of Polish independence ???

Hmm, that is another interesting 1939 Poland PoD: politically not too likely (the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement was daring enouhg as it was), but fascinating. Germany and Russia sign an open anti-Polish alliance in August 23, 1939 and/or invade POland at the same time.

Germany is still clearly planning a war and forcing one on the world. Even if Chamberlain gets ejected, the resultant government will declare war on Germany perhaps three days later. Owing to the lack of effort France and the UK put into the conflict 1939-40, I doubt this does much of anything.

I agree this outcome would be utterly trivial, as historical divergence goes.

 

[General Zod]

Poles were overconfident in their army, but not that much. They believed they were able to hold their own against Germany till western allies start their offensive. They were wrong.

True to a degree, but they were also genuinely persuaded that their Army could have a fair match with the German one, on their own. They expected to go on a offensive and be successful.

Poland had an Intervention Corps prepared just for the scenario you describe (2 infantry divisions, 1 cavalry regiment and tank batalion) and it would have been more than enought to crush any Danzig revolution in a day - without Wehrmacht support.

Polish soldiers shooting up German insurgents in Danzig does not look very much like a nation defending their country from invasion.

I'd like to remind you that all Germans had in Danzig was units of police, SS Heimwehr Danzig and SA. And at that time those forces weren't exactly the best. They weren't even able to capture Polish Post Office without military help.

Please, take the PoD into account. Here Germany spends several months arming, training, and organizing Danzig insurgents, and sending plainclothes operatives to buffer them. Please assume that the rebellion is completely successful and the Danzig Parliament (which had a Nazi majority anyway) seizes the chance to denounce the Versailles treaty and ask annexation to Germany by the legal majority for constitutional changes.

So if (and that is a big IF) Poles enter Danzig, German rebelion is stopped very quickly - we're talking about over 25,000 of well armed and probably better trained soldiers, with Danzig Poles as guides.

If they do not enter, Germany eventually goes with the OTL invasion plan and nothing changes.

if they do, however, it's Poland using force to quell a popular insurrection in an area that they only have limited rights upon. Not very defensive.

German Army would have needed to enter Danzig before Poles - and their howling about Polish aggression would have been ignored, since it would have been them to break the peace.

Invitation from popular insurrection AND the legitimate government hardly qualifies as breaking the peace.

If Poles get into Danzig first, they can say they simply protect their rights given to them by the League of Nations.

Hardly a case of genuine defensive war.

They also have support of High Comissioner of LN, who confirms, that Danzig Germans fired first shot.

And the government of the Free City denounces Polish aggression and publicy calls for German help. And the people of the Free City is blatantly supporting them.

Danzig gets picked as the focus of the crisis here precisely because their political legitimacy here is most questionable. Nothing but Versailles diktat.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by General Zod

True to a degree, but they were also genuinely persuaded that their Army could have a fair match with the German one, on their own. They expected to go on a offensive and be successful.

Polish Army intended to counterattack only after allied offensive in the west, with bulk of German army sent against the French and the British.

Please, take the PoD into account. Here Germany spends several months arming, training, and organizing Danzig insurgents, and sending plainclothes operatives to buffer them. Please assume that the rebellion is completely successful and the Danzig Parliament (which had a Nazi majority anyway) seizes the chance to denounce the Versailles treaty and ask annexation to Germany by the legal majority for constitutional changes.

OK, I suppose I have to assume that Polish intelligence (quite good, BTW) didn't notice any of that. Not very probable, but possible. In that case yes, it could work. Only...I forgot to mention it in my previous post. The Intervention Corps was dissolved at the end of the August 1939 - Polish commanders decided that full war was the most probable threat.
Frankly, I have my doubts about Poles falling for German provocation. In August 1939 mobilized part of Polish Army was quite close to German borders and had very strict order not to shoot unless attacked. They were forbidden to cross the German border under any circumstances. However, at least theoretically your scenario is plausible.
In that case I think Poland would have been on her own. IOTL Britain and France waited 2 days with declaration of war in face of full invasion. Appeasement faction would have claimed that Poles wanted to involve them in conflict with Germany which could have been avoided, so now they should suffer the consequences. And since you erased invasion of Bohemia, the appeasement policy is not as discredited as it was IOTL. OTOH, with German army pushing onto Warsaw I think even France and Britain would have become quite suspicious, that invaded country responed so quickly and with such power.

 

[General Zod]

Polish Army intended to counterattack only after allied offensive in the west, with bulk of German army sent against the French and the British.

In a strategic sense, yes, but they were also persuaded they could stop and counterattack any German forces since the beginning (otherwise, putting the whole Army on the way extended border would have been
even more foolish).

OK, I suppose I have to assume that Polish intelligence (quite good, BTW) didn't notice any of that. Not very probable, but possible.

Stranger things have happened in WWII, such as the URSS being caught pants down by Barbarossa despite the massive amounts of warning from various sources.

Frankly, I have my doubts about Poles falling for German provocation. In August 1939 mobilized part of Polish Army was quite close to German borders and had very strict order not to shoot unless attacked. They were forbidden to cross the German border under any circumstances.

Well, let's say the possibility of Poland seeing through the provocation definitely exists but we need to choose the TLs where they do not since as we discussed, the alternative surely defaults to OTL with Hitler at the helm, as they eventually unleash the invasion.
With Fuhrer Goering, there is a tiny possibility that Germany temporarily accepts ownership of Danzig alone as a barely acceptable result. And they redouble their efforts to either bring Poland to accept a junior partner status against the URSS or they renew and intensify their agitation campign in contested Polish areas which most probably again defaults to OTL, although a possibility exists that without the invasion of Bohemia, Germany is able to persuade Britain to a Munich-like settlement about the Corridor and Upper Silesia.

Whether a more moderate Fuhrer would honestly acknowledge this as a truly acceptable solution, is a fair guess. Hitler never would: no control of Poland, no open path to Lebenstraum. OTOH, Goering's expansionist agenda was much more limited. But any German sphere of influence in Central-Eastern Euriope is critically deficient without satellization of Poland.

In other words, this scenario is not mostly about superior plausibility, but about selecting the historically divergent outcome with decent plausibility.

OTOH, with German army pushing onto Warsaw I think even France and Britain would have become quite suspicious, that invaded country responed so quickly and with such power.

Very true, but you see, first what the appeasement faction only needs is the Polish case appearing questionable enough and the Poles looking like sharing enough fault for the conflict that it does not look like a worthy cause for British blood, not Germany blatantly on the side of the angels

Yep, they might become more than a bit suspicious but IMO there would be no overwhelming casus belli either. Clear examples of the aggressor or the part sharing similar blame for the conflict biting more than he thought and being handed their butt on a plate abund in history (ask Jefferson Davis, Napoleon I and III, William II). IMO the issue that would influence the long-term attitude of the British about the outcome of the conflict is the final fate of Poland. If any residual autonomy is suppressed and the Germans go for total occupation like OTL, the UK shall be agnered and most likely shall pursue a "Cold War" containement of Germany. If however, a moderate German leadership goes for annexation of the pre-1914 territories and restores some kind of autonomous Polish satellite state in Congress Poland (mirroring the satellization, not invasion, of Bohemia-Moravia), I can see the appeasament policy remaining dominant.
The key issue here is whether the Soviets would accept this latter settlement, but I suppose they would likely regard the Germans free to do as they please with their slice.

Anyway, the critical period for Anglo-French intervention only lasts until the Soviet invasion of Eastern Poland. If they have not intervened by then, most likely they never will, as Soviet intervention truly settles the fate of Poland beyond any possibility of UK or France to help, barring a DoW on both powers, which with the appearance of Poland having started the war, becomes quite unlikely.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by General Zod.

In a strategic sense, yes, but they were also persuaded they could stop and counterattack any German forces since the beginning (otherwise, putting the whole Army on the way extended border would have been even more foolish).

No. Polish Army was developed along the border because Polish politicians were affraid that if Germans had invaded only some parts of Polish territory (i.e. the Corridor, Great Poland and Silesia) and met no resistance, France and Britain would have tried to weasel out of their obligations claiming that if Poles themselves weren't willing to fight there was no reason for them to do so. Poles suspected, that had Germany occuped Pomerania without a shot and then proposed peace, western allies might have accepted it. Polish strategy was to bleed Germans in frontier battle, then withdraw to central Poland to the line of rivers Narew-Vistula leaving Great Poland and Pomerania on their own. Poles seriously underestimated mobility of German forces and influence of Luftwaffe on their own mobility, not to mention thousends of refugees escaping from Germans. Any bigger counterattack was considered possible only after allied offensive in the west.