What if Philippines 'permanently' gained their independence 1898?

But suppose that instead of ignoring Filipino homegrown political institutions and setting out to impose wholesale colonialism, the Americans had negotiated and won the right to big bases and some concessions in the Philippines, in return for a guarantee of Philippine independence from all comers?


While that might lead to a better outcome, it's also anachronistic. Such an option wasn't available, wasn't even conceivable, to the 1898 mindset.

You're also overlooking the fact that guaranteeing Philippine independence would mean guaranteeing Philippine independence against both foreign and domestic threats.

The Philippines isn't monolithic and was even less so in 1898. A Luzon-based government would face basically the same insurrections the OTL US and would have far less of an ability to suppress those insurrections. The US would quickly find itself putting down insurrections beyond Luzon in order that the Luzon-based government the US is allied with doesn't fall.

Remember, any instability in the region will give other imperial powers a ready made, and often used, excuse to intervene with the end result being the balkanized Philippines discussed in the thread I linked.
 
The Philippines isn't monolithic and was even less so in 1898. A Luzon-based government would face basically the same insurrections the OTL US and would have far less of an ability to suppress those insurrections.

Good point. The Moros are going to want their own country, aren't they? They were fighting the US into the 1910's IOTL IIRC.
 
What if this happened?

Andres Bonifacio managed to gather enough funds to buy firearms and munitions from Japan. Within plot-driven luck the weapons managed to reach them in time for the August 1896 Battle of San Juan Garrison which is quite important to Intramuros Bastion of the Spanish Colonial Government in Philippines.

After a string of hard fought victories from the Provinces North of Manila, Like Bulacan, Pampanga and Manila. Bonifacio marshals his forces back to the San Juan Garrison, so they could prepare storming Intramuros which is now having supply problems as the revolutionaries had cut-off most of the supply-lines.

At January 1, 1987 Andres Bonifacio's forces bolstered with the rebels from the Magdiwang faction, lay siege on the walled city of Intramuros. After a few day of fierce fighting, the southern wall of Intramuros is falls, the Magdiwang group is ordered into the breech.

On the 10th day of January year 1897 thirteen days after Jose Rizal was executed at manila. The Bastion of Spanish colonial government falls to the hand of Andres Bonifaio's revolutionaries.

One year, Eleven months before the treaty of Paris, the Spanish government had lost their control in Intramuros and effectively their hold on the Philippines. Andres Bonifacio continues to militarizes his Katipunan faction with the gold taken from Intramuros.

For the coming months A.Bonifacio will be fighting a short and decisive civil war against Emilio Aguinaldo leader of the Magdalo from Cavite.
 
Good point. The Moros are going to want their own country, aren't they? They were fighting the US into the 1910's IOTL IIRC.


Exactly. As I noted in the earlier thread, the Philippines as a nation-state is as much an artificial European construct as any of the "nations" of sub-Saharan Africa.

Any nominally independent, Luzon-centered, post-colonial nation is going to require significant support from it's Great Power patron to suppress the inevitable revolts that will follow Spain's withdrawal. Support so significant that the Great Power in question will be doing much of the actual fighting.

This is 1898. The Great Powers aren't as squeamish as they are today. They don't need the fig leaf of "plausible deniability" and won't hide their land grabs behind some cynical patronage relationship. What they want they take and only the concerns of the other Great Powers figure into the equation.

A Great Power isn't going to fight an ALT equivalent of the OTL's very nasty 4 year war just to gain brownie points with their new Philippine "allies". They'll either fight that war to impose their control over their new colony or they'll draw a line on the map, tell their new "allies" those are the borders they'll help them maintain, and they better get used to not owning the rest.

An independent Philippines is going to balkanize because an independent Philippines cannot control the archipelago and any power which could control the archipelago isn't going to do so merely to be friends with an independent Philippines.
 
from the looks of things the country will be spiraling into dozens of mini-civil wars here and there. Which would be good in the long run, their going to have an identity. Hey it worked in america and japan, why not Philippines? But the pretty thing about it whether or not the colonial powers intervene. That the guys with the biggest gun and largest war-chest would win.

If i'm playing this like a game, as the Filipino Faction (no outside help by the way) that defeated the Spaniards we would be seen as Saviors by the people. Thats a huge boost in morale. Since transporting troops to Philippines would take a considerable amount of time. The Brown people will have time to train their armies and instill the mentality screw-you-white-,-get-out-of-my-land!

The country would then go down south when it attacks muslim mindanao claiming it the will of the god. With luck their going to have some-sort of vacitan sanction without sponsor of course and work their way down to borneo. This would piss off the British-crown but heck, world war 2 is coming they would probably be busy dealing with Hitler.

When the dust settled the Philippines might be sitting on top of Malaysia, Indonesia. While Japan is having a jolly god time in main-land china because the Philippines supplied their oil addiction, saving them from the huge mistake of declaring war to America. Since Japan didn't threaten the south pacific, but Philliy's fault on instigating revolts island after island the European powers would be cut off from their source of power and Hitler might just pull it off. Also Philippines might cut a deal with the American that instead of helping the allies they could do a massive island stealing campaign against the european powers.

Worst, if it happened during WWI, the entente might win?
 
If i'm playing this like a game, as the Filipino Faction (no outside help by the way) that defeated the Spaniards we would be seen as Saviors by the people. Thats a huge boost in morale. Since transporting troops to Philippines would take a considerable amount of time. The Brown people will have time to train their armies and instill the mentality screw-you-white-,-get-out-of-my-land!


This isn't a game of Risk. :rolleyes:

Manila doesn't equate the Philippines and, if the rebels you mention in your earlier post do take the Intramuros, they still haven't taken the archipelago.

Removing the Spanish colonial apparatus on Luzon doesn't do anything to the Spanish colonial apparatus on Leyte, Mindanao, Cebu, and elsewhere. The various Spanish military and civilian officials in the rest of the archipelago aren't going to hear of the rebels' success on Luzon, shrug their shoulders, pack up their stuff, and sail home any more than various successes by Cuban rebels made the various Spanish military and civilian officials there, pack up their stuff, and sail home.

Just as importantly, a success by local rebels on Luzon doesn't mean that locals on other islands with differing languages, cultures, and religions automatically join the revolution.

In the OTL, the Spanish forces surrendered Manila to the US to avoid being captured by the local rebels and the US bought the rest of the archipelago at the peace table. The US then had to fight a very nasty war to convert the nice words on the peace treaty to reality on the ground. That war officially lasted three years and, in the case of the Moros and others, unofficially has never ended.

Assuming that a rebellion on Luzon is going to make the Spanish quit the islands and/or make the rest of the archipelago join the rebellion ignores the reality of the situation.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Which in turn brings the French and British on the plan to prevent this.

Anyway, it's difficult to see who would get the Philippines, but if they get independence, they'll soon loose it to a colonial power.

You're describing another Siam, basically. I don't quite remember Siam being colonized.
 

Markus

Banned
Fifth, Japan isn't yet viewed as "worthy" of inclusion in European deliberations. In 1898, only two years have passed since the European powers directly intervened in the aftermath of the First Sino-Japanese War and rewrote the peace treaty to limit Japan's gains from the war. Japan in 1898 is treated pretty much like the little old ugly guy on The Benny Hill Show; they're barely tolerated, treated condescendingly, and patted rapidly on top of the head.

Point taken. While UK/French and German interests nullify each other, the USA carried far more weight than Japan. So, in order to get an independant PI the USA needs to back that idea. ... PI-US (sort-of) alliance? Aguinaldo´s men do better PR in the US, pointing out the obvious similarities of both nation´s wars of independance and offer the lease of the spanish naval bases for 99 years. It´s not like the PI is going to have a navy that can use than any time soon, isn´t it?
 
A major reason the USA did take and hold the Philippines--at some considerable cost, which everyone who assumes some European colonial power or Japan would just swoop in and own it outright is discounting implicitly here--was that the Navy, and American business interests, wanted an outpost to get at trade and hold strategic positions. In other words, just as with the original Spanish conquest centuries before, the idea was not to obtain and profit from the islands themselves so much as to get access to more valuable goals--particularly China. Centuries before, Spain needed a foothold near China that could be approached from the east, because they were barred by the Papal-mediated Treaty of Tordesillas with Portugal from coming from the west--that was in the Portuguese hemisphere. The Philippines were on the Spanish side of the great circle the Pope had selected to separate and settle Spanish and Portuguese spheres. The Spanish never were able to greatly develop China trade as they hoped but they did have some, from Chinese merchants who sailed to and sometimes took up residence in Manila. The Yankee goals were largely an echo of that same sort of calculation; developing the Philippines themselves was an afterthought.

Thus, I think there was another option available besides either trying to conquer the islands completely and wholesale or sailing away and letting them take their chances with all the colonial sharks circling around. Those colonial powers, had they tried to take the islands themselves, would surely have run into the same buzzsaw of resistance the Americans did--but to be sure, the Americans did eventually win peace in the Philippines, and I guess with the right combinations of ruthlessness and judicious co-option of locals the Germans, Japanese, French, or British might have been able to settle matters. Just saying it would not have been a cakewalk; the Filipinos had been waging revolutionary war against Spain for some years and Spain was in some danger of being thrown out anyway.

But suppose that instead of ignoring Filipino homegrown political institutions and setting out to impose wholesale colonialism, the Americans had negotiated and won the right to big bases and some concessions in the Philippines, in return for a guarantee of Philippine independence from all comers? Basically the right to develop Subic Bay as a naval base, plus a good shot at capitalist investment in Philippine development across the board.

My impression from some rather lengthy studies I did on the Philippines is that the locals might well have come up with a fairly decent government, and the USA would be spared a lot of costs, economic, political, and in lives if we didn't try to own the country outright but let them run their own affairs their own way. In practice I imagine the USA would wind up being very dominant, but that moreso perhaps than other places Filipinos would manage to turn the semi-colonial situation to their own advantage even so. There might have been fair chances for profit for all, enough to go around, and the American military presence there could concentrate on their more grandiose missions knowing that the Filipinos valued the deterrent effect of a large American presence there and therefore their home port would be safe as long as the Americans could keep any strong foreign powers from invading. Until 1941 no one would want to bring the full power of the USA down on them even if they could overwhelm the fractional American power actually present in the Philippines plus whatever resistance the Filipinos could muster on their own behalf.

Which, I want to stress against, was surprisingly much.

From what I recall in my (limited) studies of the SAW this was basically the plan until at the "last minute" someone in the US Gov't decided the Filippinos were incapable of self-governance for the foreseeable future and the US decided to do the "fatherly" thing and take over until the little brown savages could be properly civilized for self-governance. Since the independent "protectorate" pattern is basically what the US did with Cuba it seems a probable ATL outcome...possibly moreso than OTL's de facto control.
 
From what I recall in my (limited) studies of the SAW this was basically the plan until at the "last minute" someone in the US Gov't decided the Filippinos were incapable of self-governance for the foreseeable future and the US decided to do the "fatherly" thing and take over until the little brown savages could be properly civilized for self-governance.


That's basically it and the "someone" in the US government was McKinley.

I mentioned in the other thread that McKinley never really had a chance to explain his decision. He released a public statement mentioning the US' "Christian" mission but I seriously doubt he was too stupid to know that most Filipinos were already Roman Catholic.

Since the independent "protectorate" pattern is basically what the US did with Cuba it seems a probable ATL outcome...possibly moreso than OTL's de facto control.

A protectorate is a very good possibility, but we're overlooking the fact that Aguinaldo's faction didn't represent the all of the rebels on Luzon let alone the whole of the Philippines.

If the US eschews the colonial route and sets up the Aguinaldo faction as the Philippine national government, that government is going to quickly face almost uprisings of varying sizes and levels of violence across the islands. Because the Aguinaldo government won't be able to deal with those uprisings, the US as the protecting power is going to be forced to put those uprisings to support it's protectorate and prevent the islands' balkanization just as it did in the OTL.

And, the more the US fights the internal opponents of the Philippine national government, the more the US cannot help but assume more of the powers of that Philippine national government.

Protectorate or colony, there's no real difference. We're simply looking at the same results as the OTL wrapped up in a different label. :(
 
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