What If Otto I never became King of Italy?

I was pondering this question for a while, and thought it may make an interesting timeline. What if Otto I didn't intervene in Italy in the mid 900's, and thus never became Holy Roman Emperor? Could this lead to an alternate Kingdom of Germany, free of Italian politics and could possibly establish a longer lasting dynasty under the Ottonians?

Just wanted to hear what all of you had to say before I started to write.
 
Well, if not for Italy, Otto I would still need to reinforce his power trough a regeneration of the royal authority.
IOTL it meant intervening in an anarchic Italy, with a Kingdom of Italy rotting alive, with a papacy weakened and threatened, and raiders all over the place.

Would it be only trough sheer opportunism, Italy would have been the perfect target. But it also held a serious legitimizing power for an Otto who had to deal with rebellious nobles and the episcopal reorganisation.

A more problematic situation in Western Francia, critically if late Carolingians managed to keep Lotharingia? That could be another focus for Otto (admitting he's not butterflied away) but would eventually only delay things.

I'd tend to think that Otto dying between 952 and 957, Berengar still king of Italy, would be a good "as late as possible" PoD there. Liudolf of Swabia, still alive ITTL, would have a great legitimacy issue and couldn't focus on Italy for a time.
It would only delay things as well, there, and you'd have to cook something up to prevent Ottonians to establish a direct control over Italy, tough.

What may be probable, in an Italy-less Ottonian rule, would be less important Ottonian reforms on political and religious structures, a more important focus on Northern Europe (especially Western Francia) and a weakened Papacy.

It would imply, more or less short-term, either a strong kingdom of Italy (which may be hard to have), or another hegemon(s) in the peninsula (Provencal, Byzantine, Lombard, all of these,...?)
 
So, basically what you are saying is that while I may be able to -delay- the Ottonian (Or really German) conquest of Italy, I will not be able to completely stop it. I recognize that Italy provided a huge boost to the royal authority of Otto I, So I'm not sure where Germany would be without the interventions. However, I would like to think that without the Iron Crown being claimed, many future issues with the Pope and the Italian city states could be butterflied.

Could a Byzantine campaign into Italy do anything? I do not know much about the Byzantine empire in these later years, so I'm not sure if they are strong enough at this point to invade Italy, and possibly assert a greater influence in the region, enough that Otto I couldn't claim the crown of Italy. Just a crazy thought, but I'd like to hear what you think.
 
Indeed, I don't think that a PoD under Otto I (or even his father)'s reign would be early enough to definitely prevents this possibility.
While taking over Italy caused a lot of long-term issues, it also made Ottonian beneficing from a lot of really interesting things, whom the least weren't legitimisation, as you said, but also restructuration of Ottonian power over its nobility and clergy.

Without the crown being taken, papacy would be essentially reduced to Italy when it would come to temporal power, so it would certainly reduce problems on this regard. However it would cause several other issues, for exemple, the lack of clear legitimity from Ottonian to intervene on Germanic bishopries. Without Ottonian Reforms, no "Pontifical Monarchy" but more important nobiliar control over the clergy (rather than then pontifical/imperial/royal).

I'd think Constantinople would have the means to hold Southern Italy, as IOTL, but I wonder about its possibilities to go much further North, part because of the local resistance, part because of focus in Danube and Anatolia. That said, with another PoD...Well, why not a Byzantine hegemon in southern Italy?
The North, as in Lombardia or Liguria, however...As I said, a stronger Kingdom of Italy (from Provence to Friul) may appear, but it would ask for several changes. At least Western Francia is in no shape to takeover.
 
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