I mean, that’s not a bad point. But I think getting kicked is a pretty major threat against this guy and he’ll understand to keep his damn mouth shut from now on. And aside from that, most everybody on this site seems to be pretty intelligent people who aren’t going to be swayed by this guy, so I don’t think it’s a significant threat.
What if Osama bin Laden died in the Soviet-Afghan War?
- Thread starter Reflection
- Start date
I don’t know. I think there’s still a chance something like Al Qaeda still gets founded. It isn’t an organization of a single man and Al Zawahiri was a member from the beginning. Their attacks may be different and they may be called something else, but theres a good chance an Al Qaeda still exists.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Yeah, I did a poor job.
Now, if I peg addressing middle-class jobs to a particular time and person, such as Phil Gramm in 1996 or John McCain in 2000, does that make it appropriate (and potentially interesting) for our “After 1900” forum?
It does. However there is always the danger that other posters will drag the thread kicking and screaming into current politics (I'd say the chance of this are above average) which could result in either actions against specific posters or a thread lock.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Then I feel it would be incumbent on me as OP to make it really clear that the thread comes to a screeching halt before the present.
And I’ll try to do a good job at this.
mial42
Gone Fishin'
Of course. While an important organizer, Bin Laden did not create the conditions for Al Qaeda, and there will still a large number of radicalized, armed, and trained fundamentalist Muslims with a grudge against the United States and funding from wealthy patrons. Thus we could still expect a certain degree of Islamic terrorism. However, the 9/11 attacks specifically were unprecedented in terms of scale and psychological impact (and, despite predictions of 5th generation warfare theorists, are still by far the largest single foreign terrorist attack in the developed world), and the US response uncontroversially radicalized a much greater segment of Muslims. A few small scale shooting or bombings like the 1993 World Trade Center bombing would not produce the same sort of response (which we know because, OTL, they didn't). Since the 9/11 attacks really were a unique and one-of-a-kind event, it's quite likely that the death of their main organizer and planner will butterfly them away without any comparable attack taking their place.
Call this idealism here if you insist but again, assuming that NATO is disbanded and the United States takes a more isolationist stance in world affairs a decade after the collapse of the USSR and no 9/11 under a Perot Presidency hypothetically speaking, the military budget could be reduced significantly, say only two carrier groups and potentially no more strategic bombers (i.e. B1s, B-52s) due to not needing the capability and take a defensive approach only militarily.
And with the funds available, they could be earmarked for rebuilding infrastructure or pay off the government debt.
While I doubt the American military would downsize that much, wasn't the Clinton administration on the way to pay off government debt? And wasn't that changed because of the War on Terror (not that Bush or any following administration couldn't issue debt for other stuff, though)
The United States on Track to Pay Off the Debt by End of the Decade
clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov
probably scores of them in terms of ideological commitment but do they have such deep pockets and connections
Well, there is some stuff we can draw upon:
- From what I think has been discussed here before, a lot of politicians, especially the neoconservatives wanted to invade Iraq to oust Saddam and the War on Terror provided casus belli for them.
- Bush was not doing too well before the September attacks. His tax cuts weren’t well liked, he was the victor of a close race decided by Supreme Court and didn’t win the popular vote.
- Without 9/11, everything else going on at the time would be the big news. The big thing would be the Enron scandal. Enron scandal was big because of some ties with Bush and was part of a series of bankruptcies and issues of big companies at the time. This would become the dominant narrative and likely turn people more suspicious against corporate interests.
- Bush would be vulnerable in 2004 since he lacks the rush of patriotism he gained in OTL to keep him afloat. A sluggish economy mired with corporate chicanery means the Dems have a chance if they run someone who can appeal to people. John Kerry I don’t think would win the Democrat nomination in this scenario if he would run. John Edwards would be sunk by controversy so maybe Howard Dean would win the nomination and choose Wesley Clark as his running mate. They could likely beat Bush, but not sure how well they’d do, though they may be able to lessen the effects of the 2008 economic problems.
- Iraq would still be a time bomb that would likely erupt in the Arab Spring and Iran might exploit that. That or Iraq ends up in war/conflict with Syria. That may necessitate intervention, but Unsure how.
- The Iraq War, War on Terror and the damage it did to the Americans’ reputation isn’t seen here in OTL.
So Saddam still stays in power, at least until the Arab Spring.
Anyways, what would happen to Afghanistan? Referring to the Taliban and the other groups of the former Mujahadeen (for example, HIG).
How this will affect other militant jihadist groups such as Boko Haram?
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My memory of that time period was a lot of discussion about what to do with the budget surpluses. Bush wanted tax cuts. Others wanted to pay down the debt so that there was more money available for the private sector. Others wanted to take the surplus and use it to shore up Social Security and Medicare. With no War on Terror, you would have seen more discussions on that in 2004. Even if the decision was made to keep the tax cuts, without the sudden massive upswing in defense and homeland security spending, the deficit would not have been as high.
There could have been some type of spending bill to address roads, bridges, water/sewage systems, natural gas systems, and the electric grid.
Also the military was downsizing and many good people were being let go mid career. There was a employment agency in Texas that specialized in helping military personnel being pushed out find jobs in the private sector. Their specialty was helping private sector companies understand what the different MOS translated to in private sector job posting.
I do miss the time before 9/11 as a better time.
There could have been some type of spending bill to address roads, bridges, water/sewage systems, natural gas systems, and the electric grid.
Also the military was downsizing and many good people were being let go mid career. There was a employment agency in Texas that specialized in helping military personnel being pushed out find jobs in the private sector. Their specialty was helping private sector companies understand what the different MOS translated to in private sector job posting.
I do miss the time before 9/11 as a better time.
I hope you learned from not saying conspiracy theories, Shehryar.
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The budget was balanced in the Clinton administration and Bill personally hoped to pay off the country’s debt according to his memoirs. Bush pushed tax cuts that got rid of that and then 9/11 took it from there. By getting rid of OBL there’s a chance that the balanced budget could be maintained longer but it would likely require Gore winning in ‘00.
Getting Gore in the White House might not be too hard in such a scenario. Butterflying away the embassy and USS Cole attacks without similar attacks may not make some consider Clinton and those associated with him to be weak on foreign threats which could be enough to o swing the election.
We wouldn’t see the PATRIOT Act in such a world and of course there wouldn’t be the attitude of, “if you’re not with us then you’re against us” at least not nearly as prevalent. It would really be just a continuation of the 90s... Not gonna lie, kinda wish I lived in that world.
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Don't come in a month after the fact to one liner somebody.I hope you learned from not saying conspiracy theories, Shehryar.