What if Operation Spark succeeded?

We have heard a lot about Operation Valkyrie and the July 20 Plot.

However I havent seen here discussed an operation carried out by the same people earlier, which in my opinion was way more dangerous to Adolph and had a chance of success: Operation Spark.

In March 1943 Major General Henning von Tresckow, successfully smuggled a bomb in Hitler's plane, disguised as a cognac box, under the pretext of handing the cognac to an officer as payment to a bet.

The bomb was carefully set so that it exploded when the plane was the nearest to the frontline. This would have the effect that, if the resistance wanted, the killing of Hitler could easily be attributed to Soviet planes.

In short, there was no way to link Hitler's death with the resistance unlike Valkyrie.

The bomb also was way more dangerous than one placed in the wolf's lair. Simply put, had it exploded, it would had been impossible for Hitler to survive.

Once the Hitler was dead, Tresckow would use the replacement army to take over Berlin and Germany and fight the SS. It also helped that Army Group Center was pretty much waiting for Hitler's death to join the plotters.

The assassination attempt only failed because the cold temperature pretty much froze the bomb.

So my question is, what if the bomb exploded? Would Tresckow had succeeded in defeating the SS? How would the allies react?
 
Last edited:
.
Operation Spark
It's usually translated as FLASH.
So my question is, what if the bomb exploded? Would Tresckow had succeeded in defeating the SS?
Had it succeeded; AFAIK the Schwarz Kapelle did not have plans for a coup afterward. Tresckow was CoStaff of AGC; he did not control the Replacement Army.

AIUI, they figured that getting rid of Hitler (untraceably) would clear the way for a broadly supported coup against the Nazi regime. That is, many generals and other figures who had been holding back would now be receptive. Many generals felt themselves bound by their sworn oath of loyalty. Other possible conspirators were intimidated or captivated by Hitler. Thus a stronger coup could be organized, but it would take a few months.

Goering would succeed as head of government, per Hitler's designation made in 1939. He was bitterly resented by rival Nazi potentates, such as Himmler. I would expect Goering to cut funding and other support for the SS and expand the Luftwaffe Field Divisions instead. So when putsch comes to shove, the SS won't be fighting for Goering.

He will not be a popular figure. He was discredited with the public. He had once bragged that "if a single enemy bomb falls on Berlin, you can call me Meyer." (A name associated with dorkiness, not Jewishness.) By 1943, Allied air raids were continual, and the air raid sirens were called "Meyer's hunting horns".

However, it will take a few months to "get all the ducks in a row." Goering will try to make peace, and be flatly rebuffed: no peace with Nazis. That result will encourage recruitment by the SK.

In strategy - I don't think Goering will be as tempted to override the generals as Hitler was. ZITADELLE had been agreed on by early March, though it was postponed several times. By June, Manstein at AG South, Guderian, and Model had all become opposed. So I think it gets cancelled.

The extermination program might stop. Goering wasn't emotionally committed to it. It might be a useful club to beat the SS with.

How would the allies react?

The death of Hitler would be applauded, but there would be a lot of rhetoric emphasizing the alleged deep-rooted nature of German militarism, aggression, and brutality.

The U.S. and Britain had already committed to "unconditional surrender". That wouldn't change. Possibly Stalin might try harder for a separate peace, behind the scenes.

If there is a later coup later in 1943...

The post-Nazi regime will stop the extermination program, but probably seek to erase the evidence. Eliminate all surviving prisoners - and all of the Totenkopf SS and Einsatzgruppen, too. (The latter can be sent to the Eastern Front, and used in frontal attacks.)

Another big question would be: how would Axis allies react? Firstly to Hitler's death, then to the anti-Nazi coup. Mussolini is going down, and IMHO neither Goering or the post-Nazis would bother rescuing him. It's going to be pretty clear that Germany is now interested in getting out of the war ASAP, and will sacrifice its allies to that end.

How the entire TL plays out, I don't know.

One ugly possibility. Germany is no longer Nazi, and could make peace a lot sooner than OTL, perhaps in 1944. In which case, many of the scientists at the Manhattan Project will balk at continuing. They were never happy about creating such a dreadful weapon, and got into it because of the threat of a Nazi Bomb. With that threat gone, they would want to stop. OTL, they were almost done when Germany fell; if the Bomb is a year off, that's very different. (One might add that the Communists among them would probably be ordered to stop the Project.) Besides a "mutiny", the opposition of these scientists would make it much harder to sustain the enormous budget of the Project. A small quasi-academic project, directed at building power reactors, could continue.

But... Soviet scientists and Stalin himself knew about the possibility of the Bomb. When the war in Europe ends, the USSR will start its Bomb project. The U.S. having dropped out of the race, the Soviets would get the Bomb first.
 

Insider

Banned
The U.S. and Britain had already committed to "unconditional surrender". That wouldn't change. Possibly Stalin might try harder for a separate peace, behind the scenes.
WAllies would reconsider situation and act upon it. If there is a reasonable peace offer then it is taken.

But... Soviet scientists and Stalin himself knew about the possibility of the Bomb. When the war in Europe ends, the USSR will start its Bomb project. The U.S. having dropped out of the race, the Soviets would get the Bomb first.
So? do you really think that a few years of having the bomb, would give USSR so big advantage?
 
WAllies would reconsider situation and act upon it. If there is a reasonable peace offer then it is taken.

There was very broad feeling in both the U.S. and Britain that Germany was intrinsically dangerous and had to be crushed. The Treaty of Versailles was then regarded as a botch because it left Germany independent and didn't completely and permanently abolish the German armed forces.

There was also a demand for doing justice on German warmongers and war criminals - lots of them.

In addition the Allies were committed to restoring Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Austria.

These were the minimum Allied requirements, none of which any of the the Germans could accept.

So? do you really think that a few years of having the bomb would give USSR so big advantage?

Umm, yes. It would certainly embolden Stalin to be a lot more aggressive. Even if that aggression did not succeed, it would be a Very Bad Thing.
 

Pomphis

Banned
So? do you really think that a few years of having the bomb, would give USSR so big advantage?

Historically the western allies demobilized pretty fast after the war ended. The USSR did only to a much smaller amount. But the US had the bomb. In this scenario either the western allies do not demobilize as historical (IMO extremely unlikely both for domestic reasons and becasue they do not know about the soviet bomb for some time) or the USSR will have both a overwhelming conventional superiority plus a nuclear monopoly.
 
I think the allies would consider a reasonable peace offer.

The coupers would start demanding conquered lands, sure but that is just the starting point, I could see them eventually agreeing to pre-1938 borders and handing non-coup war criminals.

They could use the Holocaust in their favor and arrest the entirety of the SS then hand them to the allies as war criminal fodder. Himmler and Heydrich would be worth an army of criminals.

Also given how Churchill despised the Soviets and was more anti-Hitler than anti-Germany, I can see Unthinkable happening, where the war would be directed at destroying the Soviets instead. Given how the Wallies would be just warming up for the war, Unthinkable would look as just the same war rather than entering another conflict.

Wallies making peace with Germany would leave Stalin 2 options:

1) Accept peace too

2) Dont accept and look as the aggressor, giving Germany the excuse to say "we agreed to end the conflict and stand down on territorial gains, but Stalin keep attacking us! He wants to break into Germany and kill us!" At which point I could see Unthinkable happening. Where a non-Nazi Germany joins UK and US in fighting communism.
 
Last edited:
Top