What if Operation Pike went into effect?

After Nazi Germany signed a non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union, the British and the French were understandably frightened of this alliance, especially since the Soviets were now funneling the Wehrmacht with resources such as oil.

With this in mind, they drew up plans to deal with the Soviet Union by bombing Soviet oil fields in Azerbaijan, which would've crippled the Soviet oil industry and cut off the Nazis from receiving any more oil. This plan was called Operation Pike. According to the report by General Gamelin submitted to the French Prime Minister on 22 February 1940, an oil shortage would cripple the Red Army and Soviet Air Force, as well as Soviet collective farm machinery, causing possible widespread famine and even the collapse of the Soviet Union,

Preparations were made such as the transfer to the Middle East Command of aircraft from both France and Britain to be outfitted with incendiary bombs. They concluded that several installations at Baku and Batum were vulnerable to an air attack.

However, this plan never went into effect because France was invaded by the Nazis in May 1940 and conquered in June.

What if in between September 1939 and May 1940, the British and French went through with this operation?
 
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Well France would have to survive for this first. So the question becomes: in what scenario in which the Wallies manage to defend France(long enough) do they have the time, resources and willpower to spare to execute the operation? Or when would the Germans delay their attack long enough for it to happen?
 
Would the bombers available in 1940 be able to find and hit these targets in any strength and accuracy? If they could how long would it take to repair the damage and how much capacity was there to make alternative arrangements for refining the oil?
 

Archibald

Banned
French bombers allowed to this operation were Glenn Martin 167F based in Syria (or what amounted to Syria at the time). I'm not sure these aircrafts entered service before spring 1940.
 

Deleted member 94680

Would the bombers available in 1940 be able to find and hit these targets in any strength and accuracy? If they could how long would it take to repair the damage and how much capacity was there to make alternative arrangements for refining the oil?
French bombers allowed to this operation were Glenn Martin 167F based in Syria (or what amounted to Syria at the time). I'm not sure these aircrafts entered service before spring 1940.

So with the airframes available within the POD (pre May 1940) are we basically saying it'll be the RAF flying from French airbases?

Well France would have to survive for this first. So the question becomes: in what scenario in which the Wallies manage to defend France(long enough) do they have the time, resources and willpower to spare to execute the operation? Or when would the Germans delay their attack long enough for it to happen?

The OP says between September 39 and May 1940 i.e. before the invasion of France.
 

Archibald

Banned
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pike

Looks like Farman F-222/2 heavy bombers were also part of the plan (24 of them). There was to be 65 Glenn Martin and it seems a squadron was already in Syria by May 1940, so the aircrafts were available.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farman_F.220

The Farman was quite a big aircraft, only a little smaller and slower than early B-17s. It could have make some hefty damage to the oil fields.

https://www.aviafrance.com/aviafrance1.php?ID=29&ID_CONSTRUCTEUR=501&ANNEE=0&ID_MISSION=0&MOTCLEF=
 
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Would the bombers available in 1940 be able to find and hit these targets in any strength and accuracy?

Baku is hard to miss from the Air,
440px-Baku%2C_Azerbaijan%2C_satellite_image%2C_LandSat-5%2C_2010-09-06.jpg
and that's without the gas flare pipes burning 24/7
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
For one thing, the entry of the USSR as an active Axis partner could conceivably have opened up an "Afghan Front" between the Soviets and the British in India. Considering the tense situation of India at this time, that could make things interesting, indeed.
 
Would the bombers available in 1940 be able to find and hit these targets in any strength and accuracy? If they could how long would it take to repair the damage and how much capacity was there to make alternative arrangements for refining the oil?

Given the deficiencies of bomber command and their French counterparts and the limited amount of tonnage and aircraft devoted to the mission, it is not likely. They'll probably be able to find the general region of Baku, as the map shows it's quite distinctive, but that's a different order from finding and hitting the actual oil fields specifically. The strikes against Grozny and Maikop are likely to be even less successful. The Soviets were quite experienced in dealing with oil fires in the region and the nature of the fields made repair pretty easy. The planners of Pike may have thought it was easy, but the same planners historical record on other strategic bombing operations, particularly in the early and mid-war, is downright horrendous.
 
The very fact that this idea was seriously considered has always been mystifying to me.

By all accounts, there was enough skepticism in the idea that the actual decision to bomb was never given. WAllied strategic thinking in '39-'40 may have been myopic, but they weren't irretrievably up the creek like the Germans and Japanese were...

IIRC, it had gone well past the planning stage. Aircraft were being deployed to bases in Syria to undertake the bombing.

One can find all sorts of plans which preparations were made for but were never in the end actually implemented.
 
IIRC, it had gone well past the planning stage. Aircraft were being deployed to bases in Syria to undertake the bombing.

I wasn't able to find anything about aircraft being deployed, although discussions about which type of bombs to use were apparently continuing during the fall of France which would imply that planning wasn't complete.
 
Given the deficiencies of bomber command and their French counterparts and the limited amount of tonnage and aircraft devoted to the mission, it is not likely. They'll probably be able to find the general region of Baku, as the map shows it's quite distinctive, but that's a different order from finding and hitting the actual oil fields specifically. The strikes against Grozny and Maikop are likely to be even less successful. The Soviets were quite experienced in dealing with oil fires in the region and the nature of the fields made repair pretty easy. The planners of Pike may have thought it was easy, but the same planners historical record on other strategic bombing operations, particularly in the early and mid-war, is downright horrendous.

Yep, I wouldn't have thought so. Nor would such a pitiful force of bombers be able to sustain a 3 month offensive against a defended target, even a low 2% loss rate would see maybe 1/4 of the force lost within a couple of weeks.
 
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