WI Citadel was postponed again? Hitler was informed that the 200 Panthers would not be ready in time for an offensive in July. Problems with the drive the main reason. Citadel postponed to August. While working on Panthers Germans modify Elefants to include MG as IOTL post Kursk. Operation Husky takes place as IOTL. Would Hitler still go ahead? Would Stalin keep waiting or attack?
I think Stalin would end up attacking after Husky once German troop transfers happen. His forces would suffer then much worse due to intact German defenses, ammo stockpiles, and extra time to fortify and actually being in those fortifications. IOTL the Soviets attacked Orel while the bulk of AG-Center's panzers were fighting at Kursk, but still suffered very heavily against the forces left in the bulge. AG-South after Citadel was cancelled maintained positions ahead of defenses that had been prepared in winter-summer around Belgorod, because Hitler wanted to maintain a jump off point for an offensive later and to have room to fall back if needed, which left forces depleted during Citadel, deprived of Panzer support as those had been sent to Italy and the Mius Front, left holding a 200km longer line without prepared fortifications as they would have had at the much shorter prepared Belgorod position in July pre-Citadel. Plus they burned through most of their artillery stockpiles during Citadel, firing 3 rounds for every 1 the Soviet's fired. So when the Soviets attacked Belgorod-Kharkov in August the German defenders ran out of ammo by late August during 4th Kharkov.
If the Soviet attacked then without the Germans burning themselves out during Citadel, even with transfers to Italy the extra time would give the Germans time to fortify, plus they'd have full stockpiles of ammo intended for the offensive, be in their shorter prepared defensive positions that had been built up for months, and have their full infantry and panzer complements instead of being worn down. The Soviets despite having not suffered their 170k casualties would find German defenses a much tougher nut to crack than they were IOTL after Citadel. The Mediterranean plays out roughly the same, the Soviets suffer worse and may well not be able to exploit like they did that Summer-Autumn, so German forces are far more intact come winter, which then makes the Eastern Front a bloodier proposition into 1944 and much slower going.