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Given the results of the 2016 election, it may appear as if the Republicans have an Electoral College advantage. However, in 2012 Obama could have lost the popular vote and still won the Electoral College, and the Democrats held an Electoral College advantage. This scenario already occurred in my TL A Different Path where a Democrat is the beneficiary of a PV-EV split, but 2012 was another opportunity for this to occur. Barack Obama won the popular vote by 3.9% but he won the tipping-point states(Colorado by 5.37%, Pennsylvania by 5.38%) by a margin of 5.4%. So your challenge is to find a PoD that eliminates Obama's 3.9% PV margin but preserves his Electoral College victory. Here is my alternate 2012 map: President Barack Obama/Joe Biden-Democratic: 272 EV 48.51% Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan-Republican: 266 EV 49.65%
There is a 5% swing, with 2.5% of the vote going from Obama and that 2.5% going to Mitt Romney. Obama loses the popular vote by over 1% but narrowly wins the election nonetheless. Check out the 2012 results link. How could such a result occur? What would be the effects of this result on US politics? How would Obama's second term be altered by a less legitimate victory and less of a mandate? I think Democrats would still maintain the Senate but would be in a worse position down ballot. Would there now be a bipartisan movement to abolish the Electoral College, since both parties have been screwed by it in recent memory? Could a constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College or the NPVIC pass TTL? Or would the Democrats, thinking they have an Electoral College advantage, become defenders of it, saying how it is more representative etc etc, and we would be seeing more articles like this one from Slate after the 2012 election? How would the 2016 election be effected? What would be the effects of this scenario? What if?