What if Obama lost the popular vote in 2012 but won the Electoral College?

Towelie

Banned
That will mean that Obama wins the Presidency. It might also mean that the Republican Party does not engage in an ugly civil war in 2013 over immigration reform and the budget. The failure of the Obamacare Rollout in 2014 galvanized the party, and without it, things could have gotten really bad. The party probably will not see any reason to undertake immigration reform in this scenario because back then, everyone laughed at Sean Trende when he said that the GOP could go all in on whites and win. In this scenario, people won't be laughing at that concept.

A Republican Party that wins Florida and Virginia but loses Iowa and Pennsylvania is a party that needs more white voters, and you might see more trade skepticism and immigration restrictionism find support among establishment wings of the party.
 
Not really. Everyone assumed that HC would be the nominee since 2008.
The scenario will be totally different. Sure, Clinton and trump could run, but all the variables and events surrounding them will be very different and t changed.
 
I think something interesting to consider is if 2012 happens this way and the EC is NOT abolished (I think a safe assumption), but 2016 occurs and you have a similar result where Hillary wins the popular, but Trump wins the EC. With two back-to-back non-popular vote winners in the White House (for three out of the last five elections), the general public will be particularly enraged and there may be pressure from BOTH parties to support abandoning the EC.
 
Wouldn't Romney be able to run an effective "buyer's remorse" campaign in 2016 if he wins the popular vote but loses the Presidency narrowly in the electoral college? After all, unlike Hillary and 2020, he'd still be young enough to do it.
 
There wouldn't be sufficient impetus to change the constitution, which is what would be necessary to get rid of the electoral college. Getting a two-thirds majority in Congress is near impossible these days, and getting three-fourths of the states to ratify is really unlikely.
 
I think something interesting to consider is if 2012 happens this way and the EC is NOT abolished (I think a safe assumption), but 2016 occurs and you have a similar result where Hillary wins the popular, but Trump wins the EC. With two back-to-back non-popular vote winners in the White House (for three out of the last five elections), the general public will be particularly enraged and there may be pressure from BOTH parties to support abandoning the EC.

I suspect that the general public does not give a damn unless the EC hurts their party's *most recent* candidate. If the EC helps Trump in 2016 the fact that it elected Obama in 2012 will suddenly become ancient history to most Republicans, who would assume (very likely wrongly!) that it would continue to work in their favor in the future. At the most, they would simply cite 2012 as a rebuttal to any claims that Trump's victory was "unfair" because he lost the popular vote.
 
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