I don't think you understand the butterfly effect. The butterfly effect means that a small effect (like a butterfly clapping its wings in Asia) can create a large effect somewhere else (like a storm in the Americas). This is a pretty large effect. A lack of Iceland Faroes and Greenland will mean major changes within Danish politics. Beacause of the Schleswick-Holstein wars this can have major influences on German unification, which could lead to a different Germany in whicg there will never be a Nazi party (or even no first world war or Franco-Prussian/German war).
In particular, the chances of any particular sperm hitting an egg is miniscule, and pretty darn random.
Just 'replaying' the universe with NO changes will start getting different people pretty soon. After a PoD, you will very quickly get 'new' people. Cultural changes (absent a Great Man), are not going to happen much on the far side of the world until people/ideas start moving around, but immediately after the PoD, different sperm start hitting eggs, and your people are different. If your PoD is in Australia (pre-contact), Europeans will start being conceived with different genders, e.g., within seconds. If 'Charlemagne' is born as Charlotte, she won't be great, and history will be hugely different - even if there's no chance of cultural diffusion from Australia at that point (which there wouldn't be).
So, ya. Within months or years, you pretty much have to assume that EVERY person conceived is a different person in the ATL than they would have been in OTL.
With significant national changes, you're going to get people moving around in different ways, and that will make other changes.
So, ya, ANY change in the 1300s is going to mean no Nazi party and no Hitler.