What if?: No Tuck Rule

Yesterday the NFL officially eliminated the infamous "tuck rule." Infamous for its role in helping decide the 2002 AFC Divisional Playoff Game between the New England Patriots and Oakland Raiders, the tuck rule has achieved somewhat mythical status. That call, and that game, have had significant ripple effects in the years since. The Patriots went on to beat the Raiders and start a dynasty, winning three Super Bowls in four years. Meanwhile out west, Oakland looked to be in good shape the next year. New Head Coach Bill Callahan took the Raiders to the Super Bowl before they were destroyed by Tampa Bay. An old (aging would be an understatement) team fell apart, and has yet to make the playoffs since.

So, what would have happened if the tuck rule wasn't invoked, Tom Brady lost the ball, and Oakland made their way to a second straight AFC title game? I'll divide my questions into the short and long-term.

Short Term:
-Who would have won the AFC in 2001-2002?: The title game would have been between Oakland and Pittsburgh. The Steelers were the top AFC team in the regular season with the league's best defense. But with a banged-up Jerome Bettis and an inconsistent QB in Kordell Stewart, this team was very vulnerable. Could Oakland's high-flying West Coast offense score enough points to score a second-straight road win?

-Does the "Greatest Show on Turf" win another?: The St. Louis Rams were arguably the best team in the NFL in 2001. Led by MVP Kurt Warner and Offensive Player of the Year Marshall Faulk, the Rams offense was one of the all-time greats. After winning the Super Bowl in a cinderella season in 1999, St. Louis returned to the big game two years later as the favorites. A Rams-Steelers matchup would be a story of polar opposites, while a showdown with Oakland had the potential for a high-scorring affair.

-Oakland, Tampa Bay, and a crazy coaching carosel: Following the 2001 season, Raiders Head Coach Jon Gruden was essentially traded to the Tampa Bay Buccanneers for draft picks. This was due to Gruden's decision not to accept a contract extension with the Raiders past 2002. Al Davis decided to get what he could and move on. But if the Raiders got past the Pats, and potentially to the Supere Bowl, would Gruden have decided to stick around and finish what he started? If Chucky stays with Oakland, Tampa Bay will have to find someone else after firing Tony Dungy. Two options that were talked about at the time were Bill Parscells and Steve Mariuci. Both were rumored to be offered by the Head Coach and General Manager positions. Parscells turned the job down, but Mariuci was Tampa Bay's fallback-fallback option. If Gruden stays in Oakland, does he take the offer and end up in Tampa? Who do the 49ers hire, and how does it impact the TO-Garcia relationship?

-Tom Who?: The 2001 New England Patriots story is tied directly to the rise of Tom Brady, arguably the greatest quarterback of the past decade. But if the Pats lost in the playoffs in January of 2002, would his legacy have been different? The first question is what to do with Drew Bledsoe? The Patriots ended up trading him to the Bills for a first round pick in that offseason. Do they follow the same course here, or does Belichek decide to head into 2002 with a QB controversy on his hands (I doubt it). Even if Brady is handed the reigns, does he put up the same production? Can he become anything more than a game-manager?

Long-Term
-The Patriots Dynasty: Without their Super Bowl ring in 2002, can the Patriots become an NFL dynasty? Their 2003 and 2004 teams built on the core of 2001, adding and subtracting as necessary to make even better teams. The obvious answer is no, the Patriots wouldn't be a dynasty without that first big win. The team chemisty wouldn't have been the same and they would have been bested by other teams in the AFC. The more nuanced answer is maybe. Unlike some franchises, New England never went for the big-name free agents, who are often attracted to getting a shot at a title. Signings like Roosevelt Colvin and Rodney Harrison still could have happened even if the Patriots weren't the top team in the NFL. My personal opinion is that New England would not have been a dynasty, but still could have won a title during the 2000s.

-Oakland Resurgent: The Raiders were one of the best teams in the AFC when they lost to the Patriots in the playoffs. Jon Gruden and Rich Gannon led a veteran offense that put up big points, while a stout defense always kept them in the game. If Oakland beat New England, they would have reached back-to-back AFC title games. If their 2002 season went a similar way than they could have made three in a row, with the possibility of two Super Bowl appearances. This all came to nought IOTL, as the Raiders age and poor front office management caused them to fall apart. Would this have happened with Gruden at the helm, or with another Super Bowl appearance?

-The Greatest?: Peyton Manning's career has been defined in large part by failing to achieve in the playoffs. The Colts did reach two Super Bowls under Manning, but too many times fell short in the early rounds. This was often at the hands of the Patriots defense and Tom Brady's arm. But if the Colts don't run into those tough New England teams in Foxboro, does Peyton get a ring earlier? Does he get multiple titles? And if Tom Brady doesn't become as great a QB, is the record-breaking, title-winning Manning viewed as the greatest of all-time?

-Filling in the gaps: This may be the toughest question, but if the Patriots don't make that first Super Bowl, and don't become a great dynasty, who win the Lombardi Trophies in the early 2000s? This is an impossible question because of butterflies that involve draft picks, coaching changes, and the very random nature of the NFL. But we can speculate! After all, that's what we do best!
 
As a Raiders fan, I've often wondered about this myself. Assuming Oakland did go on to win that game vs. the Patriots, this is how I speculate your short term scenarios would turn out:

I think the Raiders probably win the AFC in 01-02 and advance to play the Rams in the Super Bowl, aka the "teams that recently left LA Bowl." I think a Rams vs. Raiders Super Bowl would be a potentially excellent matchup, possibly as good as the Rams/Titans game two years earlier, which I consider to be the best Super Bowl ever. The Rams/Raiders matchup seems like a tossup, but I think the Rams probably have a slight edge. Most likely, the Rams win their second SB in three years.

This will prove interesting for the Rams' future too, because the "greatest show on turf" team started to crumble after losing to the Patriots IOTL. The start of the Patriots' dynasty prevented the possibility of a Rams dynasty, and the Rams have never really been the same since. If they win another SB, and Warner stays healthy, and the key players stay with the team, it's possible they could win one more before either Warner or Faulk decides to retire.

Gruden probably stays with the Raiders for the next season at least. They should be the favorite to make it back to the Super Bowl from the AFC in 02-03. If they do, I think they'd probably win, but it depends on who they play (almost certainly not Tampa Bay).

I think that even without winning the title that first season, Tom Brady had earned his place as New England's starter. It's been a long time, so my memory may not be great, but IIRC Bellicheck was never that enamored of Bledsoe anyway; Bledsoe is probably still out at New England. I think the Bellicheck/Brady-led Patriots will win at least one title before the 2000's are over; but maybe no more than one. And it's quite possible that without the legacy of the early 2000s dynasty surrounding them, one or both of them is gone from New England by now.

Long term, as you say, is hard to guess. I think, unfortunately, the Raiders will still decline in the later part of the 2000's. Most of that decline, since Gruden left, was driven by Al Davis' poor decision making (see: Russell, JaMarcus). Since I doubt Gruden is going to stay in Oakland forever, eventually Davis will get more decision-making power back and make mistakes accordingly. Hopefully it won't get as bad as OTL, but who knows? Simply finding a better replacement for Gruden than Bill Callahan would help a lot, and a couple more drafts with Gruden at the helm would leave the Raiders in better shape to rebuild when Gannon, Rice, and Tim Brown inevitably retire.
 
But Gruden took Dungys team to the Superbowl. I am thinking if TB knew they were not going to get him they may of kept Dungy. Dungy was let go late in the off season.
docfl
 
OK, first of all, I'm a Colts fan, so I'm going to be a little biased. But I'll try to make this as even-handed as possible. But there are indeed an enormous amount of butterflies resulting from this.

Short-Term:
2001: I think the Raiders are the team to beat here. Gruden can beat the Steelers, especially since Kordell Stewart was so shaky, so it's Rams-Raiders in Super Bowl 36. That's going to be very high-scoring, but I think that the Rams will pull it out. So the Rams have two Super Bowls in 3 years, and they are discussed as the new dynasty. This also effects whether or not Kurt Warner gets released later on.

Gruden probably stays with the Raiders here, getting an extension, while if Dungy is fired, Mariucci steps in to bring a more offensive mind to Tampa. Parcells might be interested in taking the San Francisco gig, following in the footsteps of Walsh and Seifert to achieve another title. Now, assuming not too many changes, assuming that Mariucci is somewhere on Gruden's level offensively. Oakland and Tampa both reach the Super Bowl in 2002. Who wins that is more of a debate now, but I think that ultimately, Tampa Bay would still would bring home their first Lombardi Trophy.

Brady and Bledsoe are probably going to have to fight it out for the starting spot in training camp, and it will be a lot more bitter this time around-Brady is younger and stepped up well, but at the time, the Pats had committed to pay Bledsoe a huge amount of money (10-years, $103 million, which was unheard of at the time). Whoever loses is likely to get traded again, either to Buffalo as with Bledsoe IOTL, or somewhere else desperate for a QB.

Long-Term:
It's unlikely that the Patriots become a dynasty, or manage to build the reputation of infallibility. They're good enough to contend for a title, and likely even win one, but I doubt that they can reach the level they once possessed. Belichick will be regarded as a decent coach, but not as the Dark Wizard of Football that he current is viewed as.

The Raiders.....They fell apart, and I don't think that Gruden's presence could have changed that. Likely they would have won a few more games, and burnished Gruden's reputation some, but that's a losing proposition.

Peyton Manning, Undoubted Greatest Quarterback of All Time? I love it!
The Colts are the natural successors of the lack of a Patriot dynasty. 2003 is a good year, they're likely the #2 seed, and only have to go to Kansas City, assuming the Chiefs don't lose earlier, in which case, they would have all games at home in the Dome. So if the Colts win the AFC, they're off to the Super Bowl against the Panthers. I still think that the Colts would have won, though it would have still been quite close, as the Colt D was nothing to speak of at the time. As a Colt fan, if it had come to a final kick from the Colts to avoid OT, with Vandershank on the field-It would have gone to OT. But the Colts would win, the first trophy for Peyton, as well as Dungy's first trophy (Might him winning so early lead to more black coaches in the NFL?).

After that....It's up in the air as to what happens, butterflies have made tornadoes. The Colts will win another trophy soon enough, and if they claim titles in '04 (Peyton's 49-TD season), '06 (Super Bowl 41), and '09 (Super Bowl 44), they will be regarded as the dynasty of the age. They were contenders in '05, and in '07, with nobody to go 19-0, they look good there as well. Manning is very likely called the greatest QB of all time, especially if he can tie Montana in ring count with his stats, and given those records, it's quite unlikely that he gets released, or that Bill Polian is ousted at the end of '11 as well.

As for who else might win....The Steelers were pretty consistently good throughout the decade, picking up two titles and a SB appearance. The Eagles might show up on the NFC side, and it's possible Tampa Bay might be able to hold their own. The Chargers could get their act together and have a chance. Eli might not be sent to the Giants, which would butterfly their title run in '07.
 
I want to back up to a game early in the 01 season that happened after Bledsoe got hurt, but before the tuck rule.

Brady took over during their second game, a loss to the Jets that dropped them to 0-2.

They won their next game against Indy in a romp, but lost at Miami 30-10, and were down by 10 against SD midway through the fourth quarter at home the next week.

The Patriots were able to force OT, and they won it on a Vinatieri FG after they got a big pass interference call.

If they didn't have that comeback, they are 1-4, and maybe the vibe on that team is a bit different. Maybe Bledsoe gets his job back when healthy, and Brady and Bledsoe duke it out in camp the next year after the team finishes around 8-8 or 7-9.

And, with Bledsoe staying in NE, maybe a team like Buffalo trades up for the #1 overall pick and the right to select QB David Carr.
 
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Here's my probably unlikely, hopefully not too unrealistic, predictions for what might have been

2001: Raiders @ Steelers (AFC Title Game): Oakland narrowly defeats Pittsburgh, due in large part to the injury of Jerome Bettis (who plays but gets limited carries) and an overreliance on the arm of Kordell Stewart. Rich Gannon plays well and leads the game-winning drive, culminating with a field goal by Sebastian Janikowski.

Rams vs. Raiders (Super Bowl): In an offensive dream matchup, the team of destiny (Oakland) takes on the team that everyone picked at the beginning of the year (St. Louis). This is a true battle of style, as the black-and-blue Raiders square off against the proficient, finessee, and All-American Rams. The game itself is a shootout, with Gannon and Warner trading points. The key matchup is Charles Woodson against Torry Holt. Woodson, who gained fame after his game-clinching forced fumble against Tom Brady in the divisional round, largely takes Holt out of the game. However, Marshall Faulk proves to be too much, and the Rams pull away in the 4th Quarter, winning 35-21. Warner wins his second MVP and the Sports Illustrated Cover reads "Dynasty: How the St. Louis Rams changed the game and became the best team in the NFL."

Off-Season: The Oakland Raiders sign Jon Gruden to a three-year extension through 2006. He becomes the highest paid coach in the NFL and is a fan favorite due to his emotional style and solid offensive playcalling. Steve Mariuci is hired by the Buccaneers who hope that his West Coast offense will take the defensive minded team to the next level. San Francisco hires defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell to lead the team after a long coaching search. He will be forced to balance the ego of star Wide Receiver Terrell Owens with the concerns of QB Jeff Garcia.

2002: The 2002 NFL season ushers in a new era with the reorganization of the league. Each conference now has four divisions, with the Seahawks moving to the NFC and Houston getting an expansion team. It is also an era of parody. In the AFC, the top teams are the Raiders, Titans, and Steelers. The New England Patriots manage to win the AFC East with a 10-6 record. Quarterback Tom Brady has an impressive season, while Drew Bledsoe puts up a pro-bowl year in Buffalo. In the NFC, Philadelphia and Green Bay take the top-two seeds, with San Francisco and Tampa Bay winning their respective divisions. Rich Gannon wins the MVP award, Priest Holmes is Offensive Player of the Year, while Brian Urlacher is Defensive Player of the Year. In the playoffs, the Patriots defeat the Colts in the Wild Card round after a strong defensive performance shuts-down QB Peyton Manning. The Steelers defeat the Denver Broncos despite the ongoing struggles of "Slash" Stewart, whose inconsistencies led to him being benched several times during the season. In the divisional round, the Raiders torch the Steelers through the air, while the Titans win a close victory over the Patriots. QB Steve McNair manages to lead a game-winning drive, hitting RB Eddie George on a screen pass for 6 in the last minute. After the game, McNair calls Brady "one of the toughest guys I've seen in a long-time." The Raiders defeat the Titans in the title game, their third straight, and head to San Diego for the Super Bowl. In the NFC, the Buccanneers defeat the Giants in the first round. Their elite defense, which carried them all year, makes up for an offense whose personel is still built around the power run, yet run a West Coast scheme. The 49ers-Falcons game is different, as QB Michael Vick runs all over the San Francisco defense. The tension between Garcia and Owens boils over late in the game, as the two almost come to blows before being brocken up by Cottrell. In the divisional round, Philadelphia narrowly defeats the Falcons, while Vick shows the limitations in his passing game, throwing three interceptions. The Packers defeat the Bucs, due to a strong game by Brett Favre in the freezing Lambeau weather. In the NFC title game, Donovan McNabb outplays Favre, with the Eagles defense forcing several key stops to put away the game. In the Super Bowl, the Eagles and Raiders square off as a pair of physical, veteran teams. But it is the experienced Raiders, led by Rich Gannon and an improved defense, that pick up the win. Gannon throws for three touchdowns and is named MVP, winning 28-20.McNabb is criticized for his lack of production late in the game, though much of that is due to several big drops by a lackluster receiving core. With the Raiders victory, it appears that a new era of offense has overtaken the NFL.

More to be continued...
 
Here's my probably unlikely, hopefully not too unrealistic, predictions for what might have been

2001: Raiders @ Steelers (AFC Title Game): Oakland narrowly defeats Pittsburgh, due in large part to the injury of Jerome Bettis (who plays but gets limited carries) and an overreliance on the arm of Kordell Stewart. Rich Gannon plays well and leads the game-winning drive, culminating with a field goal by Sebastian Janikowski.
One that should be taken into account here is that this is at Heinz Field. A lot of kickers had trouble making field goals there that year (including Pittsburgh's own kicker). In that sort of situation, Janikowski missing the field goal isn't unlikely.
 
Prediction List for 2000-2012 Super Bowl, No Tuck Rule Edition*:

2001, Super Bowl XXXVI: Oakland Raiders V. St. Louis Rams. Winner: Rams. Final Score: 45-43. Super Bowl MVP: QB Kurt Warner

2002, Super Bowl XXXVII: Tampa Bay Buccaneers V. Oakland Raiders. Winner: Buccaneers. Final Score: 37-28. Super Bowl MVP: DE Simeon Rice.

2003, Super Bowl XXXVIII: Indianapolis Colts V. Carolina Panthers. Winner: Colts. Final Score: 34-33. Super Bowl MVP: WR Marvin Harrison.

2004, Super Bowl XXXIX: Philadelphia Eagles V. Indianapolis Colts. Winner: Colts. Final Score: 35-21. Super Bowl MVP: QB Peyton Manning.

2005, Super Bowl XL: Seattle Seahawks V. Pittsburgh Steelers. Winner: Steelers. Final Score: 21-10. Super Bowl MVP: WR Hines Ward.

2006, Super Bowl XLI: Chicago Bears v. Indianapolis Colts. Winner: Colts. Final Score: 29-17. Super Bowl MVP: QB Peyton Manning.

2007, Super Bowl XLII: San Diego Chargers V. New York Giants. Winner: Giants. Final Score: 24-21. Super Bowl MVP: QB Eli Manning.

2008, Super Bowl XLIII: Arizona Cardinals V. Pittsburgh Steelers. Winner: Cardinals. Final Score: 30-27. Super Bowl MVP: WR Larry Fitzgerald.

2009, Super Bowl XLIV: Indianapolis Colts V. Minnesota Vikings. Winner: Colts. Final Score: 42-35. Super Bowl MVP: QB Peyton Manning. 19-0 Perfect Season.

2010, Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers V. New York Jets. Winner: Packers. Final Score: 49-10. Super Bowl MVP: QB Aaron Rodgers.

2011, Super Bowl XLVI: Baltimore Ravens V. New York Giants. Winner: Giants. Final Score: 24-18. Super Bowl MVP: QB Eli Manning.

2012, Super Bowl XLVII: San Francisco 49ers V. Baltimore Ravens. Winner: Ravens. Final Score: 34-31. Super Bowl MVP: QB Joe Flacco.


*This list will be arbitrary, based on nothing but my own instincts of what I think would be a neat matchup, and more than a little biased.
 
Off-Season: The Oakland Raiders sign Jon Gruden to a three-year extension through 2006. He becomes the highest paid coach in the NFL and is a fan favorite due to his emotional style and solid offensive playcalling. Steve Mariuci is hired by the Buccaneers who hope that his West Coast offense will take the defensive minded team to the next level. San Francisco hires defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell to lead the team after a long coaching search. He will be forced to balance the ego of star Wide Receiver Terrell Owens with the concerns of QB Jeff Garcia.

I agree with you about Gruden. That butterflies away the Callahan and the Art Shell II eras.

However, in the 2001-02 offseason, Mariucci wouldn't have been going to Tampa because he had one season left in San Francisco.
 
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