What if no Taiping revolt?

So after lurking on this site for years I've decided to make my first thread. Please be gentle with me.

The Taiping revolt was one of the most bloody wars in human history killing in excess of 20 million people and devastating large areas of China.

But what would have happened if Hong Xiuquan never launches the Taiping rebellion? I assume that the fragemention of the Chinese military is averted or at least slowed down but would an absence of the revolt help or hinder China’s first steps in modernizing?

What about the other (Nian, Dungan etc.) revolts happening at the same time? Would any of these be butterflied or dealt with a lot more rapidly without the distraction of the Taiping revolt?

What other cultural and political effects would there be?
 
Hong Xiuquan was a symptom of, rather than a cause of the political situation. China at the time was ripe for rebellion. If it wasn't the Taipings, it would be someone else, possibly someone more competent and able to win over Western support too. The French, British, and American governments were all keen on the Taipings at first and even sent diplomats to engage with their government in Nanjing, but the Taipings proved too fanatical and bad at diplomacy. In the end, the Western powers were either neutral or actively sided with the Qing government against the Taiping and other rebellions (such as the Nian), which was crucial to the central government's victory. A series of rebellions that are more accommodating towards the West have a good chance of succeeding, though as ever it's hard to imagine a Southern rebel group uniting China (accomplished only by the Ming and KMT IOTL). More likely would be a period of North-South division with the Northern government eventually driving south to unite the country, as often happened IOTL.
 
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