What if No Genghis Khan?

[Dyranum]

If I recall correctly, the Song had a sort of proto-industrialisation going on before the Mongols came and smashed that. Would be interesting to see how that would turn out.

 

[mosodake]

There were many migrations of people from Northern China to the south during times of significant upheaval. The Hakka were one group of people that fled to Southern China following the establishment of the Yuan Dynasty. No Genghis Khan might butterfly away the migrations of several Chinese ethnic groups or at the very least change where they ultimately settled. Given the importance of groups like the Hakka in Chinese, Taiwanese, and some Southeast Asian history, culture, and politics, this would significantly alter the course those nations take.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

I don't think China would stay divided in the long run--China had been unified for quite a long time before that. There is some thoroughly massive cultural inertia here.

Not actually true.

China was unified under the Han Dynasty (206 BCE-220) and the Tang Dynasty (618-907). But note the 400 year gap between.

From 907 to 960, China was again disunited.

The Sung re-established unity in 960, but in 1127 Jurchen invaders seized the capital and all northern China, as the Chin Dynasty. The division continued until 1234, when the Mongols conquered the Chin. The Mongols conquered the Sung in 1279.

So - as of 1234, when the Mongols invaded, China had been united for 882 of the previous 1,430 years - and disunited for 548 years, including 160 of the last 327 years.

Since the Mongol conquest of the Sung, China has been continuously united, and imperial unity of China has become a sacred principle it Chinese culture.

But that's now - after over 600 years of continuous unity. In 1234, it was not so well established; and it is possible that a division of China could have persisted and become permanent.

 

[Fabilius]

Are the mongol conquests completely avoided by wiping out Genghis Khan or are they a ticking time bomb?

Surely they could have united at a later point. They maybe less effective of course. Genghis really was a unique man for his time, rewarding talent and making intelligent decisions.

 

[Fabilius]

But that's now - after over 600 years of continuous unity. In 1234, it was not so well established; and it is possible that a division of China could have persisted and become permanent.

True. I wonder how people would view China in such an ATL. Or the idea of a unified China.

The southern part would probably become the powerful one I assume.

 

[Elfwine]

Are the mongol conquests completely avoided by wiping out Genghis Khan or are they a ticking time bomb?

Surely they could have united at a later point. They maybe less effective of course. Genghis really was a unique man for his time, rewarding talent and making intelligent decisions.

They might have united at a later point, but it is unlikely they would have accomplished nearly as much, especially given that they seem to have hit at the right time to break things as well as they did.