What if no French takeover of Laos?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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What if the Franco-Siamese war of 1893 is avoided, and French Indochina remains limited to Vietnam and Cambodia? I would think Laos would be under Siamese vassalage going into the 20th century.

Not sure what the simplest PoDs for avoiding the Franco-Siamese war of 1893 are.

An alternative PoD could be there still is a Franco-Siamese war, but France is uninterested in collecting Laos as a prize. Instead it finagles a larger indemnity or some form of greater economic concessions from Siam. It might find the Kra Isthmus an interesting alternate territorial gain, but I think the British would veto that as it is too close to comfort for the Burma and Malaya colonies.
 
Hard for the French to get into the war without getting Laos since it was their main objective. Best way to avoid the conflict would be the British for some reason to guarantee Siamese against France, maybe Siam cedes the claim to the Shan states and some territory in the Malay peninsula in exchange.
Thai dominance in Laos was as you said vassalage, so for Bangkok to successfully integrate the region they need tact as the Lao may find some convenient protectors in the French (Britain can't babysit Siam forever).
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Hard for the French to get into the war without getting Laos since it was their main objective. Best way to avoid the conflict would be the British for some reason to guarantee Siamese against France, maybe Siam cedes the claim to the Shan states and some territory in the Malay peninsula in exchange.
Thai dominance in Laos was as you said vassalage, so for Bangkok to successfully integrate the region they need tact as the Lao may find some convenient protectors in the French (Britain can't babysit Siam forever).

That could work. Maybe the Siamese cede up to the narrowest part of the Kra Isthmus.

Also, if the French went to war basically to get Laos maybe you could have the French just not be interested because they realize that the Lao lands do not really give them unique access to any part of populated China that they do not already have by using Tonkin and the Red River.
 
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