What if: No Bay of Pigs invasion?

RousseauX

Donor
The Bay of Pigs invasion was a disaster based on faulty intelligence about a potential of a massive uprising in Cuba once an anti-Castro force landed. What happened in reality was that the population was either apathetic or supported Castro when the US backed Cuban exiles landed. The event was key factor in Castro and Khrushchev's decision to put missiles in Cuba which started the Cuban Missile Crisis a year and half later.

What if the invasion never occurs? Let's say Kennedy looks at the plan and decides it's too politically risky and vetos it. Does Castro still swings to becoming a firm Soviet ally? If there is no Cuban Missile Crisis, does that mean another similar nuclear standoff occur somewhere else later?
 
One possible result: Khruschev lasts longer in power. If I'm not mistaken, the missile crisis was one reason for his ouster a couple of years later.
 
If Kennedy calls it off, the best he can hope for from Castro is to stay neutral and out of the way, kind of like Spain did to the Nazis in WWII. And perhaps Kennedy uses his diplomatic skills to make that happen, meaning the US still can keep missiles in Turkey barring a Soviet-backed coup somewhere else in the Americas.
 
IMHO Castro was drifting towards the USSR before the Bay of Pigs. IMHO best case scenario is Castro becomes more like Tito, internally communist but truly neutral on the outside - no Soviet facilities/personnel on Cuba. One reason I doubt this would happen is that the Cuban economy needed external support once US trade/investment went away. I very much doubt the USSR would cough up rubles without expecting something in return - the listening stations they built, naval facilities at Cienfuegos, etc. Nuclear missiles might not come about absent the Bay of Pigs, but IMHO Khruschev's logic for putting them there would remain, the issue is would Castro still accept them in this scenario.
 
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