What if no action of 29 November 1811

What if, on 29 November 1811, a French convoy of an armed storeship escorted by two French frigates had not met a British squardon off Vis island in present day Croatia and avoided the battle? Or what if the French won?
This is actually an important pod because the loss of the convoy gave Napoleon the impression that he could not control the Adriatic Sea, which was vital to the shipping of supplies from France to the Balkans. The loss of the armed storeship plus one frigate meant that, as well, meant the French had 200 cannon less, dealing a serious blow to the French army in the Balkans and it contributed to Napoleon's decision to invade Russia instead of the Ottoman Empire with Russia in 1812. So, this must be a surprisingly important naval battle that changed the course of history.
 
Anybody else? And even if Napoleon still invades Russia [still very likely], a longer campaign against the Ottomans would have butterflies when the invasion starts.
 
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