What if no 1750s Diplomatic Revolution?

raharris1973

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Prussia stays aligned with France , Britain stays aligned with Austria. How does the remainder of 18th century geopolitics play out?
 
Considering the French and Indian War was started by colonials and Amerindians under Washington attacking Frenchmen under Jumonville and that Austria under Maria Theresa was very eager to retake Silesia I'd assume a 7YW-like war would still start.

Since the Jumonville Glen attack already occurred the war has already in essence began by OTL Diplomatic Revolution and TTL's lack thereof.

What would be interesting is Russia and Spain in this situation. Russia under Elisabeth most likely would join the war on the Anglo-Austrian side or would stay out of the war and instead use the distraction of the other powers to make gains in the Ottoman Empire. Meanwhile since she was bad health she could easily die earlier and we'd see Peter III inherit early. He'd join the war on the Franco-Prussian side most likely, in return for later help in reclaiming Schleswig (Peter III was Emperor of Russia and Duke of Holstein-Gottorp). Spain is also interesting because the current ruler Ferdinand could really go either way, he OTL kept out of the war because of his Portuguese wife and British hints at the possible return of Gibraltar. But TTL he might demand a concrete return of Gibraltar and if the British refuse he could then go to war. Meanwhile if Ferdinand dies early, which I doubt (he was in good health, but you can always use smallpox), Carlos III will inherit and he is more favorable towards war.

Speaking of Carlos in OTL the British tried to form an Italian Anti-Austrian league during the war but failed as the Italian states saw this as folly, France and Austria were allies and they were the northern neighbors of the Italian States and Spain was a French ally and she controlled the seas to the west of the Italian States. TTL I could see the French trying to form an Italian Anti-Austrian League and I think they'd find success. This would lead to an Italian theater of the war.

How the war plays out is dependent on what I said above.
 

raharris1973

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what if things fall into place so Russia sides with Austria and lives the same as OTL while Spain joins France but only if the war continues into the 1760s and Netherlands remains neutral? align Sweden, Bavaria, Saxony, Denmark, the Ottomans and Portugal to your taste.
 
what if things fall into place so Russia sides with Austria and lives the same as OTL while Spain joins France but only if the war continues into the 1760s and Netherlands remains neutral? align Sweden, Bavaria, Saxony, Denmark, the Ottomans and Portugal to your taste.

Sweden is fighting on the Russian side, their ruler was put in place by Elisabeth and is related to her heir Peter. Also Sweden could make some territorial gains on Prussia.

Bavaria fights for France, they could make some territorial gains on Austria and Austria has their own ambitions on Bavaria.

Saxony fights on Austria's side, Austria helped put the Saxon Elector in place as the King of Poland-LIthuania and Prussia has natural ambitions on Saxon lands.

Denmark fights on the Russian side, Denmark and Russia have naturally been aligned for a while and right now I believe they have an alliance. But Denmark doesn't have much to gain in this war.

Ottomans fight on British side to try and regain land from Russians, right now attacking the Austrians doesn't have much to offer as they already took back a bunch of land in the previous war with the Austrians.

Portugal fights on the British side due to Windsor and natural alignment against Spain, but Portugal wouldn't join the war until Spain did.
 

raharris1973

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Ottomans fight on British side to try and regain land from Russians, right now attacking the Austrians doesn't have much to offer as they already took back a bunch of land in the previous war with the Austrians.

I see what you mean for all of them, except this one. The Russians and Austrians are both allied to the British here, so Britain is not helping them get territory from either. If they want revenge on either one, they side with the traditional French ally, if they feel too vulnerable in the face of an Austro-Russian-British coalition, they sit the war out.
 
I see what you mean for all of them, except this one. The Russians and Austrians are both allied to the British here, so Britain is not helping them get territory from either. If they want revenge on either one, they side with the traditional French ally, if they feel too vulnerable in the face of an Austro-Russian-British coalition, they sit the war out.

Oh shit sorry forgot that Russia was fighting on Austria's side, yeah the Ottomans are sitting this one the fuck out unless the Austrians are getting hammered
 

raharris1973

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the Ottomans are sitting this one the *bleep* out unless the Austrians are getting hammered

Thing is, I would say the odds are on the Austrians getting hammered, with them dealing with the French, the Prussians and the Bavarians. The Prussians are all the more formidable because they are not fighting any serious opponent to their west. What Savoy is doing and whose side it is on is probably relevant to this equation as well.
 
Thing is, I would say the odds are on the Austrians getting hammered, with them dealing with the French, the Prussians and the Bavarians. The Prussians are all the more formidable because they are not fighting any serious opponent to their west. What Savoy is doing and whose side it is on is probably relevant to this equation as well.

Hannover is in serious trouble caught between France to the west and Prussia to the East but you might see a joint British, Holstein, Danish, Hannoverian army fighting in North West Germany, in fact that would be a key theatre of the war.
 
Austria would not try to get back Silesia if they faced a Franco-Prussian-Russian alliance. They would have to be sure of allying with either France or Russia first. IOTL they got both.

The War of the Austrian Succession was in many ways a reversal of the Seven Years War. Everyone gained up on Austria except Britain, who stuck with them for balance of power reasons. They did well to limit their losses to Sliesia, and were not going to get into that situation again.
 
This is basically a massive French and Prussian wank.
Then there will be butterflies preventing the American Revolution and possibly the French Revolution. But even if those manage to crack through, the German State OTL will not come about and there will be an inter-Germanic war for the control of central Europe. Would make a very interesting timeline on a global scale. Effects in the realm of colonial imperialism would include many SABs (Scary Ass Butterflies) I am reminded of an old joke. There's a history conference, and a question is posed: What was the effect of the French Revolution on your country? A French historian leaps up and says My God, there are a hundred books on the subject! We French discuss it daily! I myself would never have been born! An American historian says, oh my, my country would surely be a different place. A Chinese historian comments, saying, you know, that's an interesting question, but frankly, it's too soon to tell.
 

raharris1973

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everybody keeps forgetting Russia under elizabeth was aligned against fredericks prussia not with it. what would the austrians dor or not do vis a vis silesia if they had russia and britain on their side but france against them
 
Not convinced Russia, Austria, and Britain can get it done?
Things might be different in the colonies,but the French and the Prussians are gonna dominate the battlefields of Continental Europe.IOTL,the Prussians were able to punch well above it's weight against a coalition of Russia,Austria,Saxony,France despite very limited British support.If the French are fighting on the Prussian side,this is gonna tilt the scales on the Prussian and French side heavily.
 
I would like to raise some ignored point:
OTL the french performed horrible during 7YW. So instead of british money the prussians get useless franch troops. IIRC OTL except for Troppau the prussians really didnt have to deal with them. The might of France was held in check by Hannover and some other small west german principalities and very few prussian troops. So im not sure the Prussians are not better off with the british.

It was largely because of this horrible performance of the army that they reformed the army after it. In this reform the cooperation with Austria played an important role for example regarding the artillery. And this army played a very important role a bit later during the revolution. So this might change the revolutionary wars and Napoleon fundamentally. If they win this war that might butterfly the reform and even if it doesnt they wont have the austrians helping them with the reform of the artillery.
 
I would like to raise some ignored point:
OTL the french performed horrible during 7YW. So instead of british money the prussians get useless franch troops. IIRC OTL except for Troppau the prussians really didnt have to deal with them. The might of France was held in check by Hannover and some other small west german principalities and very few prussian troops. So im not sure the Prussians are not better off with the british.

It was largely because of this horrible performance of the army that they reformed the army after it. In this reform the cooperation with Austria played an important role for example regarding the artillery. And this army played a very important role a bit later during the revolution. So this might change the revolutionary wars and Napoleon fundamentally. If they win this war that might butterfly the reform and even if it doesnt they wont have the austrians helping them with the reform of the artillery.
Important thing is would Duke Ferdinand of Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel be in Hanoverian service if Prussia's allied with France?He was a close ally of Frederick the Great.I was under the impression that the man played a large role in the British-Hanoverian victory and that the general performance of the main British army was far from stellar as well as indicated by their record in North America.
 
I would like to raise some ignored point:
OTL the french performed horrible during 7YW. So instead of british money the prussians get useless franch troops. IIRC OTL except for Troppau the prussians really didnt have to deal with them. The might of France was held in check by Hannover and some other small west german principalities and very few prussian troops. So im not sure the Prussians are not better off with the british.

It was largely because of this horrible performance of the army that they reformed the army after it. In this reform the cooperation with Austria played an important role for example regarding the artillery. And this army played a very important role a bit later during the revolution. So this might change the revolutionary wars and Napoleon fundamentally. If they win this war that might butterfly the reform and even if it doesnt they wont have the austrians helping them with the reform of the artillery.

Vergennes seems to have wanted to continue the

Until 1758, the war seemed to be going in France's favour, they captured Minorca in 1756, the British wasted something like £1 million on amphibious landings along the French coast, ending at Saint Cast. They quickly occupied Hanover, after Hastenback when Hanover signed the capitulation terms at Klosterzeven with the Army of Observation retreating to Stade. After news of the Prussian victory at Rossbach, George II disavowed the treaty and continued to fight. With Prussia and France allied, the war might end much sooner by late 1757, or 1758.

In North America too, things seemed to be going well for the French and their Indian allies up until the summer of 1758, so if the war is concluded earlier, the ante-bellum status quo would probably be preserved. Hanover and Britain might make peace.

The question is if France and Austria are not allied, then Austria's performance will be worse, however the course of the Netherlands theatre will change many things. Austria will require troops in the Austrian Netherlands and Britain would probably have to send an army there or recruit German mercenaries there. This will likely draw the Dutch into the war as they would want to stave off the French.

One of the things that tied up the French war effort was having to promise 129,000 French troops along with an annual subsidy of 12 million livres to Austria until the return of Silesia. However, the subsidy will likely have to go to Prussia. The Brits paid Prussia £670,000 per year, which was a huge sum, but more economical in the long run.

The question might be what happens with Russia as they could go either way. In 1746 Russia had signed a defensive alliance with Austria in 1746 and they both were united in a desire to expand at the expense of the Ottomans. Empress Elizabeth was incensed by the invasion of Saxony, so I am apt to believe that they would side with Britain and Austria. However, Catherine II was a francophile, so a volte face might take place if she still ascends to the throne in 1762.

The failed coup in Sweden in 1756 resulted in the riksdag retaining with power. Also, Baron von Hopken, the chancellor remained wary of France. Sweden seemed to be most interested in subsidies, and in the end the French won out in that regard, so I imagine them allying with the French in this scenario.

Throughout the war, France was paying the Danes a subsidy and though Sweden and Denmark signed a defensive pact in July of 1756, Denmark might be persuaded to join. The Danes were fearful of Russia's claims upon Holstein and if Peter III accedes to the throne and a war is still ongoing by 1762, Denmark might be at war with Russia.

The Saxons resented the Prussian tariff policy and therefore I imagine Saxony siding with Austria. Britain might try to push Sardinia into the war to put pressure on France, while Bavaria traditionally a French ally, they might side with Austria.
 
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