What if Nixon not send the supplies over to Israel during Yom Kipper war

Jason222

Banned
For all those hoping for Israel us the nuclear bomb hate disappoint you guys but we must take hard core facts. Israel knock Syria out the war before the USA send supplies over while Israel might recapture the Sinai. This might have well push Egypt future war Israel after all maybe regain the land by force.
 
The Nixon administration couldn't get permission from any of our European allies to airlift supplies over their territory; they didn't want to get embargoed by OPEC for helping Israel. Portugal finally agreed to let us land and refuel our cargo planes in the Azores. If Nixon hadn't been able to pull that off, it would have been weeks before the supplies could arrive on ships.
 
Last edited:

Jason222

Banned
If Nixon doesn't send aid then Israel probably takes down Syria and Egypt during the war.
On October 9 the Syria army force to leave the Golan Height. The first US aid planes came on October 14. That matter battle change basic over night instead reinforcement Syria getting beaten badly. For that matter if Nix supplies not arrive Israel would used longer USSR tanks that they capture Syrians sued against Egypt not saying done as well. Egypt well held piece Sinia as far Syria real make real different.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War
 
If the Nixon administration does not resupply Israel promptly, the Israelis will feel obliged to go further to hold more territory as a buffer/negotiating card because they will take longer to rebuild numbers. IMHO they will only stop if/when the Russians make believable threats about intervention, although no matter what Nixon can't allow the Russians to intervene with actual forces. All the supplies in the world won't help the Egyptians & Syrians because by that point their militaries are in disarray & there capability to actually use even large amounts of the same gear (let alone any new gear) is limited. They have lost too many highly trained individuals - pilots, technicians, etc - either as actual casualties, POWs, or simply wandering about to have the gear do more than just sit around unless lots of Russians arrive to work it (not just a few).

Failure of the USA to resupply will result in LESS leverage for the USA to moderate any Israeli military advances or postwar policies. Also, the Israelis will strive to become even more self-sufficient in armaments, not holding back on development of their own jets etc.

Overall this is not good - and this scenario could escalate in to a nasty US_USSR confrontation if the USSR sends troops etc to Egypt, an action which will certainly provoke a US reaction.
 
For all those hoping for Israel us the nuclear bomb hate disappoint you guys
I don't think many of us here (or I should hope not) would actually have liked Israel to attack Arab nations with nuclear weapons.

As for the main question itself, it all depends on how much the Israelis are willing to risk, and if the Arabs behave as OTL. Syria is in all probability going to be knocked out, but the question is in Egypt. The Israeli penetration of the Egyptian lines in the Sinai, although actually being a success as opposed to the utter failure of earlier counter-attacks was still relatively costly. Would the Israeli cabinet approve Elazar's plan for the attack if they didn't know supplies were on the way?
 
IMHO the Israelis would get to (not into) Damascus, taking out any military installations in the region & the airports/airfields. As far as Egypt goes they would cross the canal and probably secure both sides although no city fighting - so probably not all the way to the Med, though all the way to the southern end. Definitely no entry into Cairo - just like Damascus city fighting would be a disaster for the IDF with casualties and untold civilian deaths laid at their doorstep.

Absent quick resupply the Israelis need to get as much depth as they can and do as much damage to military infrastructure as they can. It will be a race between how fast the Israelis can resupply either through their own resources and where they can get stuff vs the Arabs getting "stuff", but needing to totally rebuild their militaries - so space, disruption w/more military casualties, disorganization, trashing facilities more important.

You may see the Israelis being more selective on prisoner releases, holding lots of ordinary soldiers to trade for the few Israelis taken, and holding on to skilled personnel (pilots, technicians, etc) as long as possible. Don't know how many Israelis the Syrians had, but if Israel goes almost all the way to Damascus they will have many more Syrian POWs than OTL.

Another possible butterfly - if Israel on both sides of the canal over >95% of length, may see them say it goes to the UN not Egypt, and Israel gets to use it or it doen't reopen.
 
Top