NomadicSky
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In 1948 there was a movement in Newfoundland, there was some oposition but this movement alarmed the British and Canadians into a union with Canada. Suppose though Newfoundland became a US state insted?
What if Newfoundland joined the US?
- Thread starter NomadicSky
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Paul V McNutt
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What is the population of Newfoundland? How many electoral votes would it have? If remember correctly, the Maritime Provinces were the strong supporters of the Conservative Party. Wouldn't that mean Newfoundland would vote Republican.
NomadicSky
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I wouldn't really call Newfoundland a Maritime I think its more of its own unique thing, it has about as many people as Wyoming maybe a little less... so it wouldn't have much of a voice.
About 500,000. So one congressional seat and two senate seats. I could see it becoming a bit of a swing seat because the two parties here in the early days were based upon Protestant (Liberal) and Catholic (Conservative) lines. To this day Newfoundland is an oddity because it is quite economically liberal but very conservative on some issues such as defense, gun control and immigration. Thus I could see it becoming an swing state.
Fedrally it does not really vote on ideology but on personality. It has voted for both the PCs and the Liberals in high numbers due to them supporting us and we have voted against certain PMs and parties because of injustices. It would probably go down to who is president at that time.
I guess that they would probably vote for Ike in 52 and 56, 60 would be a really ugly war between the Protestants and Catholics, 64 for Johnson, 68 would probably be a toss-up, 72 for Nixon, 76 for Carter, 80 and 84 for Reagan. Still this assumes no butterflies and I could see some butterflies involving the bases around Newfoundland during the Cold War.
From a policy prespective I can see many issues with Newfoundland joining the US. First would be the outlying communities issue. In Newfoundland, a huge chunk of money was spent on moving people from isolated communities into bigger settlements. Secondly, I could see Brown vs. Board of Education having a huge impact on Newfoundland. In OTL, our schools were segragated along Protestant and Catholic lines till the late 1990s. If Brown forces integration 40 years earlier, it will get really ugly (though not deep south ugly) pretty quickly.
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I could see the Labrador-Quebec boundary being a HUGE headache under such a scenario. The border was 'settled' very much in Newfoundland's favour in 1927 (Quebec still partially disputed it), but at the time it didn't seem that crucial since (1) both were dominions and (2) there was nothing there of commercial value. If suddenly it seems that Canada will lose Labrador permanently - to the Americans no less - it will want to re-open the issue. Occupation and unilateral annexation of Labrador hardly seem out of the question.
For this and other strategic reasons I don't think Newfoundland ever really had the option of joining the US. Britain and Canada can and would simply veto it.
p.s. the attached map is from a Government of Quebec website. Notice anything a little off?
For this and other strategic reasons I don't think Newfoundland ever really had the option of joining the US. Britain and Canada can and would simply veto it.
p.s. the attached map is from a Government of Quebec website. Notice anything a little off?
For those tho don't know, zone 19-north on that map is actually part of Labrador (according to everyone but Quebec anyhow). All government of Quebec maps make (at least) the same irredentist claim. I also remember there being resistance from Quebec when the province of "Newfoundland" became "Newfoundland and Labrador" officially a few years ago.
Even more ominously this is the logo of Quebec's new northern development strategy!
If Quebec's claim suddenly had the full force of the Dominion of Canada behind it I don't see what Newfoundland could do to stop it.
NomadicSky
Banned
That would be an issue for an independent Newfoundland but not for one attached to the United States.
Wow the whole government of Canada?!
What will this poor meager US State be able to do?
The 1948 refernedum was either for union with Canada or a return to responsible government (independence). The pro-independent faction intended to negotiate a free trade agreement with the US afterwards.
The US had developed air and naval bases in Newfoundland during WWII, and it was believed that if Newfoundland had built upon those ties to the US that its economy would become stronger.
At that point, there was no real discussion that Newfoundland would become part of the United States. We can imagine, though, a series of steps that would have integrated Newfoundland more and more to the United States that might one day cause Newfoundland to enter the union.
I suspect that if Newfoundland did become a state, it would take many years. I suspect if it does not happen by 1958-1963, that it would not happen until the late 1980s or 1990s. The inbetween period was one where the US was involved in the Vietnam War, had much social upheaval, and had many other problems. Not times very enticing for someone to join.
In any case, prior to that Newfoundland would likely remain part of the British Commonwealth. I doubt Canada would seek to reclaim part of Labrador while that was the case no matter how cosy Newfoundland got with the US. If Newfoundland does enter the US later on, I also doubt Canada would revive the border issue. I think it's a curiosity of the times, not something that would cause an international incident.
In any case, as an independent country, neither Canada nor Britain could "veto" them joining the US.
The US had developed air and naval bases in Newfoundland during WWII, and it was believed that if Newfoundland had built upon those ties to the US that its economy would become stronger.
At that point, there was no real discussion that Newfoundland would become part of the United States. We can imagine, though, a series of steps that would have integrated Newfoundland more and more to the United States that might one day cause Newfoundland to enter the union.
I suspect that if Newfoundland did become a state, it would take many years. I suspect if it does not happen by 1958-1963, that it would not happen until the late 1980s or 1990s. The inbetween period was one where the US was involved in the Vietnam War, had much social upheaval, and had many other problems. Not times very enticing for someone to join.
In any case, prior to that Newfoundland would likely remain part of the British Commonwealth. I doubt Canada would seek to reclaim part of Labrador while that was the case no matter how cosy Newfoundland got with the US. If Newfoundland does enter the US later on, I also doubt Canada would revive the border issue. I think it's a curiosity of the times, not something that would cause an international incident.
In any case, as an independent country, neither Canada nor Britain could "veto" them joining the US.
There's an unavoidable gap between when Newfoundland decides to join the US (instead of Canada) and when it can negotiate actual entry into the union.
Oh, definitely. In OTL, due to the base at Goose Bay in Labrador, the local CBC station there was operated by the US Armed Forces Radio and Television Service (AFRTS, now the American Forces Network or AFN for short). Who knows, maybe in TTL we could have a Falklands-like situation where AFN is essentially the main broadcaster in Newfoundland (well, apart from the inevitable NPR and PBS member stations, which could be operated by the State of Newfoundland as an outgrowth of VONF - not to mention the wild cards that are VOAR and VOWR, as well as VOCM being its own network, which thus butterflies the Stirlings' media assets away). To make it more accepting to Newfoundlanders, some of the Command Info spots could be replaced with local advertising when transmitted FTA (the replaced CI spots would be accessible to a military audience only). That would be an interesting TL to write.
But while it's a U.S. Territory rather than a state, its borders will be no less sacrosanct.
Well, it should be.
If Newfoundland is going to be a US territory, here's an idea. Say the Commission of Government lasts for a couple more years as a transitional government until a new Constitution is drawn up. Not wanting to rock the boat too much, Newfoundland's Westminster-style parliamentary democracy is retained (arguing that parliamentary democracies fit the criterion of having a republican form of government); in practice, what Newfoundland ends up becoming is a semi-presidential of the premier-presidential type (using Soberg Shugart's terminology as outlined in this paper). Newfoundland's new Constitution, interestingly, has some echoes of the West German Basic Law and the Japanese Constitution, as they would all be drawn around the same time. In addition, Newfoundland would define itself as a Commonwealth à la OTL Puerto Rico.
That would one idea to try.
You know, as ridiclous as all this is, it's probably the most reasonable scenario I can think of for someone who really desperately wants a Can Am war. Write it as more or less a slightly bigger Falklands 20 years early (and tie it in with the Missile Crisis I would think) and it becomes at least less than laughable, if still largely ASB.
A freeze in Canadian American relations for a decade or so in the middle of the Cold War would also have some very interesting ramifications... I can definitely imagine a Canada much more tied to Europe than the America's, and a Europe a lot more interested in neutrality than American protection from the Soviets...
PS: Sigh, now I'm almost tempted to write this as some kind of nationalist European Canada wank thing.
A freeze in Canadian American relations for a decade or so in the middle of the Cold War would also have some very interesting ramifications... I can definitely imagine a Canada much more tied to Europe than the America's, and a Europe a lot more interested in neutrality than American protection from the Soviets...
PS: Sigh, now I'm almost tempted to write this as some kind of nationalist European Canada wank thing.
NomadicSky
Banned
A Canada tied more to Europe... That means the avro arrow survives and gets updated, also that European nations would probably buy them.