What if Neil Kinnock had won the 1992 UK election and defeated John Major and the Conservatives? Let's say that the result is this(I got this using Electoral Calculus)
1992 UK election results
Neil Kinnock-Labour: 337+108 39.2%
John Major-Conservative: 264-112 37.6%
Paddy Ashdown-LibDem: 24+2 17.3%
651 seats
326 seats for majority
That result would be in line with the polling, which showed a close race but Labour getting a slight edge. How could this be achieved? I'm not a buyer of the theory that the Sheffield Rally or events in the campaign were the main contributors to Labour's shock defeat. Perhaps if Labour hadn't had Smith's 'shadow budget' and had better handled the tax issue they might have won. What do you think? If Labour had won, how would they do in government? 1992 may have been a poisoned chalice election with the recession and Black Wednesday. How would Labour handle those challenges? How would Labour handle the Maastricht Treaty? Would they be the ones to face a Eurosceptic rebellion in their ranks? What would they do in government? What would be the longer term effects of a Labour government in the 1990s that is not yet New Labour instead of the conservatives? On that subject, what would happen to New Labour? how would Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's careers go? On the Conservative side, what would happen to the party after the 1992 defeat? Major's gone, who would replace him? Ken Clarke? Lamont? Heseltine? Would the party still be Eurosceptic without its experience in the 1990s or would it go differently on that issue? Most likely, the party would be in better health with the 1992 defeat instead of having the election they were supposed to lose and then suffering the landslide 1997 defeat. Would the Tories win the 1997 election? If so, how would they do leading the UK into the 21st century? Would the Tories go to war in Iraq? Would they be saddled with the financial crisis or not? How would a Labour victory in 1992 effect British politics in the long term? What if?
1992 UK election results
Neil Kinnock-Labour: 337+108 39.2%
John Major-Conservative: 264-112 37.6%
Paddy Ashdown-LibDem: 24+2 17.3%
651 seats
326 seats for majority
That result would be in line with the polling, which showed a close race but Labour getting a slight edge. How could this be achieved? I'm not a buyer of the theory that the Sheffield Rally or events in the campaign were the main contributors to Labour's shock defeat. Perhaps if Labour hadn't had Smith's 'shadow budget' and had better handled the tax issue they might have won. What do you think? If Labour had won, how would they do in government? 1992 may have been a poisoned chalice election with the recession and Black Wednesday. How would Labour handle those challenges? How would Labour handle the Maastricht Treaty? Would they be the ones to face a Eurosceptic rebellion in their ranks? What would they do in government? What would be the longer term effects of a Labour government in the 1990s that is not yet New Labour instead of the conservatives? On that subject, what would happen to New Labour? how would Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's careers go? On the Conservative side, what would happen to the party after the 1992 defeat? Major's gone, who would replace him? Ken Clarke? Lamont? Heseltine? Would the party still be Eurosceptic without its experience in the 1990s or would it go differently on that issue? Most likely, the party would be in better health with the 1992 defeat instead of having the election they were supposed to lose and then suffering the landslide 1997 defeat. Would the Tories win the 1997 election? If so, how would they do leading the UK into the 21st century? Would the Tories go to war in Iraq? Would they be saddled with the financial crisis or not? How would a Labour victory in 1992 effect British politics in the long term? What if?