What if NAZI Germany didn’t build battleships?
- Thread starter Lambtotheslaughter
- Start date
And if given a couple years heads up the UK can build a lot of escorts
U-boats would have one job as far as those paranoid bastards in Whitehall are concerned
Blockading the UK
The AGNA - Anglo German Naval Agreement - limited Germany to a ''balanced" fleet, that was 30% the size in tonnage as the RN in all classes of ships (and IIRC 40 or 45% in Submarines later rising to 100%) while this worked out very well for Britain this gave tacit permission for Germany to rearm
Britain in 1939 had about 60 odd submarines so Germany while having abandoned the treaty in 1939 could not have had more than that and so it proved
In Sept 1939 Germany had 59 submarines with 50 under construction and it took until mid 42 before they had the 300 required to keep 100 on patrol
In order to have the extra submarines Germany would have to have either not signed or abandoned the AGNA treaty years earlier as it took 3 years of mass production to achieve critical mass on U-boats
Also the AGNA was used by both Britain and particularly Germany as a bargaining tool
So if it did not exist then Britain does not see Hitler as someone with whom they can make deals with and many of the interactions between them are therefore likely to be different
Blockading the UK
The AGNA - Anglo German Naval Agreement - limited Germany to a ''balanced" fleet, that was 30% the size in tonnage as the RN in all classes of ships (and IIRC 40 or 45% in Submarines later rising to 100%) while this worked out very well for Britain this gave tacit permission for Germany to rearm
Britain in 1939 had about 60 odd submarines so Germany while having abandoned the treaty in 1939 could not have had more than that and so it proved
In Sept 1939 Germany had 59 submarines with 50 under construction and it took until mid 42 before they had the 300 required to keep 100 on patrol
In order to have the extra submarines Germany would have to have either not signed or abandoned the AGNA treaty years earlier as it took 3 years of mass production to achieve critical mass on U-boats
Also the AGNA was used by both Britain and particularly Germany as a bargaining tool
So if it did not exist then Britain does not see Hitler as someone with whom they can make deals with and many of the interactions between them are therefore likely to be different
Britain cuts way back on Battleship construction, funnels more resources to escorts, the Regina Marina has a very bad war and the British Far Eastern Fleet has more than dregs and leftovers to face the IJN
Also Uboat crews had among the highest casualty rates in the war. I have heard numbers somewhere between 70-80%. The Germans lost a LOT of trained manpower in those underwater coffins. The casualties were so bad that the NAZIS pulled them from the Atlantic entirely from time to time.
Britain sees Germany mass producing U-Boats, Britain will mass produce ASW weapons.
Here's the thing with a few years more notice on having to need to aquire more escorts the UK has the shipbuilding industry to not have to slow down capital ship procurement or production in fact without needing as many escorts as fast as possible in 1939/40 due to a lot of them having already being built the KGVs might very well deliver considerably earlier on average as will the armored carriers and the first pair of Lions might get finished instead of Vanguard around circa 1942 or early 1943
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Not having to worry about German capital ships essentially gives the RN free reign to more liberally use their capital ships in other theatres.
Britain sees Germany mass producing U-Boats Britain will introduce conscription!
I don’t see how the logic of that follows. But it’s a no brainer that when you see your enemy mass producing submarines, you should focus on anti-submarine weapons.
Before 1939 the German Army was relatively small (38 Infantry Divisions by 1938) and was massively outnumbered by its neighbours
If Britain had the ability to deploy a BEF of 32 Divisions in 1938 (6 Regular and 26 TA Divisions) by the introduction of conscription a couple of years earlier when Germany starts spamming out U-boats and also takes a much firmer line with 'Mister Itler'
And besides - it could do both
mial42
Gone Fishin'
A lot of "just spam U-Boats" talk comes at it from the perspective of hindsight. We know that in 1940 the Nazis will have beat everyone they've fought but the British, have ports in France, no French fleet, and have no way of plausibly striking at Britain except for U-Boats, but nobody knew that in 1939, let alone in 1935. U-Boats make more sense for a war with Britain, but what about France? The USSR? Hell, Italy? The course of WW2 was not at all obvious when the Nazis were planning for it. Battleships are long-lead items; if you need them but don't have them, you're in trouble, whereas you can rapidly build submarines in wartime. Furthermore, submarine technology is improving in leaps and bounds while battleships are relatively settled (thanks to Treaty limits); start building hundreds of submarines in the 1930s and you might have hundreds of obsolete submarines come 1941.
That's not even getting in to the political implications of this, but in short, once the British (the only plausible target for U-Boat spam) find out, they will not be happy. And the Nazis were dependent on British support against France, or at least acquiescence, in their vulnerable 1933-1938 period. I'm not convinced the British would just start spamming ASW ships, since they also don't know they'll be fighting Germany or when in the 1930s, and they have other commitments, but they'd certainly start paying more attention.
I also don't think the military effects would necessarily be a plus for the Reich. Bismarck and Tirpitz (which are presumably what are getting removed; the Panzerschiffe date back to Weimar) tied up a LOT of RN resources at an important point in the war, and Tirpitz in particular proved an extremely effective fleet in being. U-Boats have serious diminishing returns; a few U-Boats with highly motivated and lucky crews will be doing the bulk of the damage, with the rest falling off rapidly, and the Allies can put more resources into ASW then the Nazis can in to submarines.
In short, it's:
1) Not plausible based on what the Reich knew at the time they were planning their navy, as opposed to hindsight
2) Going to piss of the British when the Reich really needs British acceptance
3) Probably won't help the Nazi war effort very much
That's not even getting in to the political implications of this, but in short, once the British (the only plausible target for U-Boat spam) find out, they will not be happy. And the Nazis were dependent on British support against France, or at least acquiescence, in their vulnerable 1933-1938 period. I'm not convinced the British would just start spamming ASW ships, since they also don't know they'll be fighting Germany or when in the 1930s, and they have other commitments, but they'd certainly start paying more attention.
I also don't think the military effects would necessarily be a plus for the Reich. Bismarck and Tirpitz (which are presumably what are getting removed; the Panzerschiffe date back to Weimar) tied up a LOT of RN resources at an important point in the war, and Tirpitz in particular proved an extremely effective fleet in being. U-Boats have serious diminishing returns; a few U-Boats with highly motivated and lucky crews will be doing the bulk of the damage, with the rest falling off rapidly, and the Allies can put more resources into ASW then the Nazis can in to submarines.
In short, it's:
1) Not plausible based on what the Reich knew at the time they were planning their navy, as opposed to hindsight
2) Going to piss of the British when the Reich really needs British acceptance
3) Probably won't help the Nazi war effort very much
Exactly.
Given the RAF was formed due to a handful of raids in WW1 - how do we expect the UK would react to a massive increase in uboats?
Expect coastal command to get a subtle increase in aircraft - this alone would make things much harder for U-boats in 1939-40
Like with fighter pilot aerial victory's a great % of the sinking was done by a small % of commanders and crews and I suspect that adding a large number of crews simply increases the number of greener crews and would increase losses.
The Battle for example would make for a great 'cheap to operate' coastal command MPA around the UK until enough twin and later 4 engine bombers and given the Shadow scheme aircraft construction could be adapted to produce suitable planes in relatively large numbers
Was going to say something about costal command. They rarely get mentioned in these threads. That could put all sorts of crimps on bomber command.
I suspect they’d still build some, the R class is desperately out of date and the unmodernized QE are as well. But they might choke it down a bit. Or hell, by starting construction on these escorts early, they won’t be panicking and freezing construction midwar.
Oh no... not Bomber Command! anyways...
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They need something battleshippy for the Japanese. And battleships are long lead items. It is not as simple as the RN abandoning battleships for ASW, but there are things that can be done.
Wow, I was about to make a obligatory "Britain magically makes 20/20 hindsight moves after every german deviation from OTL" joke, but you beat me to it. With something especially hilarious, even.
The Brits wouldn't need 20/20 hindsight to spam something prior Flower Class Corvettes if they see Germany spamming U-boats. Who are they going to use them on? The USSR?
The poster I quoted proposed Britain introducing Conscription in 1936 to invade germany with over 30 divisions in 1938.