What if Napoleon stayed in Elba?

Prussia was British sword on continent against Russia and France, now that "sword" fights against Britain on Russian side, so either they will switch sides before it's to late or they are gone.
Prussia stopped being Britain's sword after the seven years war and would happily traded them for Russian backing with the right incentive and the Russians could offer the right incentive and is common touted has having the best and largest army at the time, should the Prussians win a war against Austria and Briatin they stand to gain not only Saxony but Hanover and likely the Rhineland they got otl, while they stand to lose maybe Silesia, easily worth the risk.
 
I think you're right; for example, Blucher had more troops at Waterloo than Wellington did, and Russia had more troops at the Battle of Leipzig than Austria. Now France could still give the Austro-Brit Alliance the edge, but I wonder if they'll manage to raise as many troops to help out their fresh new allies and without Napoleon?
France could it's hard to say, who else might get involved? Bavaria? Not sure what condition they are in at the time but they stand to gain a lot from a beaten Austria, perhaps they could be enticed.
Either way it's a much closer fight than he is making it out to be.
 
I think many of you forget that Austria had a state bankrutpcy in 1811 and later a second one in 1816. Even though they got the rich northern italian lands. Austria lost more men than Prussia and British support on land is nearly nonexistent. Britain would never send massive amounts of troops and France was devastated.
Napoleon (!) had problems to recruit fresh troops. How someone can think that France would be capable of fielding a strong army is beyond me. War outside France and "terror blanche" inside is a receipt for an earlier Julirevolution.
 
If Napoleon stays on Elba, the Polish-Saxon Crisis would have almost certainly escalated into a war with Prussia and Russia on one side, and Austria, Britain, and France on the other. My money would be on Prussia and Russia winning this war, either side winning means that the map of Europe will look different.
Why is there automatically a war? prior to Nap's escape/return, France, Austria, Britain had signed a treaty, and Russia ultimately backed down. Why doesn't Russia continue to back down? Ultimately, before and after the 100 days, the balance of power was basically the same.
 
Why is there automatically a war? prior to Nap's escape/return, France, Austria, Britain had signed a treaty, and Russia ultimately backed down. Why doesn't Russia continue to back down? Ultimately, before and after the 100 days, the balance of power was basically the same.
All depends on Alexander's behaviour, if he is desperated to get Poland he would start the war and Prussians would follow-after all he saved Prussia from anihilation in 1807. But more likely he would widthraw his claims. So Congress Poland may never be created and instead 1795 borders are restored.
 
I suspect in case of Russian-Prussian defeat, we will see the Dutch get much more of the Rhineland (maybe all what Prussia got in OTL.). Saxony would keep all its territory, and Poland would be split with 3rd Partition borders.
 
I suspect in case of Russian-Prussian defeat, we will see the Dutch get much more of the Rhineland (maybe all what Prussia got in OTL.).

I don't know. The Dutch were pretty pro-Prussian and pro-Russian (but not enough to get involved in the war). I don't think they would want to anger them by accepting any land, especialy not large parts. Maybe they would play peacemaker and host the place for the peace conference (like with the war of 1812). They would try to remain on the good side of both parties.
 
I don't know. The Dutch were pretty pro-Prussian and pro-Russian (but not enough to get involved in the war). I don't think they would want to anger them by accepting any land, especialy not large parts. Maybe they would play peacemaker and host the place for the peace conference (like with the war of 1812). They would try to remain on the good side of both parties.

The point was that Prussia cared little about that land (they planned to get Saxony instead), and UK needed a strong neighbor to France, with Prussia humiliated strengthen Netherlands would be the only choice left. The Dutch wouldn't be blamed by Prussia or Russia.
 

Perkeo

Banned
ITTL monarchs of German states would be likely enemies of German nationalism and unification-republican revolutionaries would be the ones advocating unification.
With Prussia out of the game and Austria busy with the Hungarian uprising, I'm beginning to actually believe they can win.
 
The point was that Prussia cared little about that land (they planned to get Saxony instead), and UK needed a strong neighbor to France, with Prussia humiliated strengthen Netherlands would be the only choice left. The Dutch wouldn't be blamed by Prussia or Russia.
I don't know. Prussia is certainly going to lose Saxony to Saxony. it is probably going to lose Silesia to Austria. I doubt they would want to dismantle Prussia even further, especialy not by giving land to a country that was not involved and has (besides some parts of Gueldres) no claim to any of it. This is not the 20th century. They are not going to completely dismantle Prussia.

Oh and yes, Prussia is going to blame the Netherlands for it. They might have prefered Saxony over the Rhineland, but the Rhineland was a pretty decent second price. Prussia traditionaly even had some land in the Rhinland, like Gueldres and Cleves. They will not like losing it to a neutral country that pretends to be their friend.
 
Russian heartland is severely devasted by Napoleon's invasion and Prussia barely survived last few years as rump state. There is only one way Russo-Prussian alliance could win-Napoleon escaped from Elbe, but later than IOTL when war already started, takes over France again, thus France changes sides.
This is a gross exaggeration. Russia was the premier land power in Europe and Prussia had recovered from the humiliation of Tilsit quite well. Militarily they would be favored to win a war against Austria and whatever scraps Britain threw her way.
Prussia was British sword on continent against Russia and France, now that "sword" fights against Britain on Russian side, so either they will switch sides before it's to late or they are gone.
Uh, Prussia had been a firm Russian ally for quite some time at this point, that relationship is far more solid than Prussia's one with Britain.

I don't know. Prussia is certainly going to lose Saxony to Saxony. it is probably going to lose Silesia to Austria. I doubt they would want to dismantle Prussia even further, especialy not by giving land to a country that was not involved and has (besides some parts of Gueldres) no claim to any of it. This is not the 20th century. They are not going to completely dismantle Prussia.

Oh and yes, Prussia is going to blame the Netherlands for it. They might have prefered Saxony over the Rhineland, but the Rhineland was a pretty decent second price. Prussia traditionaly even had some land in the Rhinland, like Gueldres and Cleves. They will not like losing it to a neutral country that pretends to be their friend.
Russia and Prussia are likely to win. Austria gaining Silesia is really farfetched.
 
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