What if Napoleon stayed in Elba?

In April 1814, with a European coalition occupying Paris, Napoleon Bonaparte was forced to abdicate the French throne. He was sent into exile on Elba, a small Mediterranean island located 260 km (160 miles) south of France and 10 km (6 miles) west of the Italian coastline.

Napoleon signed his abdication on April 6, 1814, at the Palace of Fontainebleau, on the understanding that suitable provisions would be made for him and his family. Negotiations were entered into between Armand de Caulaincourt, supported by Marshals Ney and MacDonald, on behalf of Napoleon, and the Russian representative, Karl Nesselrode, on behalf of the coalition.

The Treaty of Fontainebleau was signed by the representatives of Russia, Prussia and Austria on April 11, and by Napoleon’s representatives two days later. Napoleon was allowed to retain his title of Emperor and was given sovereignty over Elba. His wife Marie Louise was given the Duchies of Parma, Placentia and Guastalla. Napoleon was to receive an income of 2 million francs a year, and members of the Bonaparte family were promised pensions. These were to be paid by the French government, which would soon be in the hands of Bourbon King Louis XVIII. Napoleon was also allowed to bring 870 men to the island with him from France. The army was made up of 566 from the elite Garde impériale (both infantry and cavalry) and the remaining 300 were from a small battalion of Grenadiers.

Napoleon busied himself as best he could in his miniature kingdom, some 100 km (60 miles) in circumference, population 12,000. He established his palace and other residences, designed a new flag, reorganized the island’s administration, extended roads, improved fortifications, and issued a stream of directives regarding agriculture and other matters. Elba was returned to the Grand Duchy of Tuscany after the Congress of Vienna.

Now let's say that Napoleon never thought about leaving the island and decides he wants to stay and rule Elba for the rest of his days. What would happen to the Bonaparte family and the world if Napoleon did this?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The Bourbons refused to pay the money due to Napoleon by the treaty, IIRC, so Napoleon's position was untenable in the long run. He couldn't remain on Elba indefinitely, even if he had wanted to.
 
The Bourbons refused to pay the money due to Napoleon by the treaty, IIRC, so Napoleon's position was untenable in the long run. He couldn't remain on Elba indefinitely, even if he had wanted to.


Suppose the Bourbons had paid up, and Boney had stayed put. How would European history have gone?
 
If Napoleon stays on Elba, the Polish-Saxon Crisis would have almost certainly escalated into a war with Prussia and Russia on one side, and Austria, Britain, and France on the other. My money would be on Prussia and Russia winning this war, either side winning means that the map of Europe will look different.
 
If Napoleon stays on Elba, the Polish-Saxon Crisis would have almost certainly escalated into a war with Prussia and Russia on one side, and Austria, Britain, and France on the other. My money would be on Prussia and Russia winning this war, either side winning means that the map of Europe will look different.
If the Russo-Prussian Alliance does win, then aside from the map (Prussia getting Saxony, Russia getting all of Poland), how does this change the course of European history? Or conversely, if the Austro-British-French Alliance is more likely to win, how does that change things?
 
If Napoleon stays on Elba, the Polish-Saxon Crisis would have almost certainly escalated into a war with Prussia and Russia on one side, and Austria, Britain, and France on the other. My money would be on Prussia and Russia winning this war, either side winning means that the map of Europe will look different.
Russian heartland is severely devasted by Napoleon's invasion and Prussia barely survived last few years as rump state. There is only one way Russo-Prussian alliance could win-Napoleon escaped from Elbe, but later than IOTL when war already started, takes over France again, thus France changes sides.
 
If Napoleon stays on Elba, the Polish-Saxon Crisis would have almost certainly escalated into a war with Prussia and Russia on one side, and Austria, Britain, and France on the other. My money would be on Prussia and Russia winning this war, either side winning means that the map of Europe will look different.
what happens if Russia+Prussia wins? What happens if Austria+Britain+France wins?
 
Russo-Prussian goals were rather clear-whole Saxony for Prussia and whole Duchy of Warsaw for Russia. Effects of Austro-Franco-British victory are harsher to predict-Prussia either changes sides and left Russia alone or as result of lost war is completly dissoluted and Polish-Saxon state (including former Prussian lands east of Elbe, Duchy of Warsaw, Galizia and maybe parts of Lithuania) under House of Wettin is created to counterbalance Russia
 
Russo-Prussian goals were rather clear-whole Saxony for Prussia and whole Duchy of Warsaw for Russia. Effects of Austro-Franco-British victory are harsher to predict-Prussia either changes sides and left Russia alone or as result of lost war is completly dissoluted and Polish-Saxon state (including former Prussian lands east of Elbe, Duchy of Warsaw, Galizia and maybe parts of Lithuania) under House of Wettin is created to counterbalance Russia
What? Prussia wasn't going to be dissolved win or lose and odds are if it comes to Prussia and Russia have decent odds.
 
What? Prussia wasn't going to be dissolved win or lose and odds are if it comes to Prussia and Russia have decent odds.
Post-Napoleonic wars Prussia was rump state. To serve as counterbalance against Russia and France Prussia need to be strenghtened, OTL it was-by getting Rhineland. How country that just lost a war could be awarded with land by winners? It is nonsense. On the other hand rump Prussia would not be shield against Russia or France-it would be Russian vassal. So in such case there is only one solution-say goodbye to Prussia. Geopolitics left no other option.
 
@Svetonius21 If Prussia was indeed a "rump state" following the War of the Sixth Coalition, and then subsequently was on the losing side of another war, I imagine that would mean the kingdom's subsequent rise over the next half century is butterflied away; that's a pretty big change in its own right. Does this mean the Germanies will effectively be dominated by Austria in TTL's 19thC?
 
@Svetonius21 If Prussia was indeed a "rump state" following the War of the Sixth Coalition, and then subsequently was on the losing side of another war, I imagine that would mean the kingdom's subsequent rise over the next half century is butterflied away; that's a pretty big change in its own right. Does this mean the Germanies will effectively be dominated by Austria in TTL's 19thC?
With Prussia crushed Austria is the most important player but still has Hungarian burden distracting her attention, and in the place of Prussia Hannover and Saxony are upgraded to power status to keep eye on France and Russia.
 
Russian heartland is severely devasted by Napoleon's invasion and Prussia barely survived last few years as rump state. There is only one way Russo-Prussian alliance could win-Napoleon escaped from Elbe, but later than IOTL when war already started, takes over France again, thus France changes sides.

This is more plausible than Napoleon just staying on Elba and actually gives him a shot at staying in power in France in the long run
 
Post-Napoleonic wars Prussia was rump state. To serve as counterbalance against Russia and France Prussia need to be strenghtened, OTL it was-by getting Rhineland. How country that just lost a war could be awarded with land by winners? It is nonsense. On the other hand rump Prussia would not be shield against Russia or France-it would be Russian vassal. So in such case there is only one solution-say goodbye to Prussia. Geopolitics left no other option.
"Rump" Prussia was still larger than Frederick the great's Prussia and was able to to raise an army of decently large size
 
"Rump" Prussia was still larger than Frederick the great's Prussia and was able to to raise an army of decently large size
I think you're right; for example, Blucher had more troops at Waterloo than Wellington did, and Russia had more troops at the Battle of Leipzig than Austria. Now France could still give the Austro-Brit Alliance the edge, but I wonder if they'll manage to raise as many troops to help out their fresh new allies and without Napoleon?
 
"Rump" Prussia was still larger than Frederick the great's Prussia and was able to to raise an army of decently large size
Prussia was British sword on continent against Russia and France, now that "sword" fights against Britain on Russian side, so either they will switch sides before it's to late or they are gone.
 
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