What if Napolean stayed on elba?

I don't think it was really "independent". It was a British possession in all but name, really. Napoleon was only a nominal sovereign of Elba. It would probably be returned to France after a while, or maybe an Italian Kingdom or Republic (Tuscany?). Maybe the Brits would formally annex it and set up base there (it's very close to France).

Edit: Just from the Wikipedia article, it was given to Tuscany after the Congress of Vienna, which happened before Waterloo, so Napoleon was techincally still sovereign when it was given to Tuscany.
 
Wow, that's interesting:). Obviously this means no Hundred Days, and no Waterloo. And, if certain stories are true, no arsenic poisoning;).

I don't know enough about the Congress of Vienna to guess whether a well-behaved Napoleon would be allowed to keep nominal sovereignty over Elba, but clearly escaping and retaking control of France ensured he wouldn't get if back after being re-defeated.

A line of Bonapartes presiding over (officially) independent Elba is an interesting picture. It's not in nearly a strategic position as Malta, but that doesn't mean the British won't decide to keep it; I don't know. I think most likely it would end up in united Italy anyway.

It might mean no later Bonaparte French Imperium. While a collision between France and Prussia may be likely, the actual course of it would clearly be butterflied away.

I wonder how Wellington's (and for that matter Blucher's) reputations would be affected?

I think all this is fairly unlikely given Nappy's personality, but maybe he gets seriously ill or something?
 
I don't think it was really "independent". It was a British possession in all but name, really. Napoleon was only a nominal sovereign of Elba. It would probably be returned to France after a while, or maybe an Italian Kingdom or Republic (Tuscany?). Maybe the Brits would formally annex it and set up base there (it's very close to France).

Edit: Just from the Wikipedia article, it was given to Tuscany after the Congress of Vienna, which happened before Waterloo, so Napoleon was techincally still sovereign when it was given to Tuscany.

???
Elba was part of Granduchy of Tuscany, and thus Austrian in influence.
British had no influence on it.
The only link between them was a trading in sweet wine which is traditionally produced there.

Elba has never been part of france and it is not close to france (not closer than the coast of italy, anyway.)
Are you confusing it with Corsica?
 
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Elba is probably going to be an Austrian or a Tuscan possession. I can see Napoleon's descendants have administration of the island as governors and what not.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
The British were making it as hard as possible of Napoleon during his stay on Elba. There were alot of people that wanted a more....permanent solution. I'll have to look up what changed in the Vienna Accords after Waterloo. IIRC there were additional losses for France.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
One of the things that went wrong with Elba was that the French government of Louis XVIII dragged its feet on paying the stipend to Napoleon agreed to when he surrendered and went to Elba. It then became difficult for Napoleon to pay his court. Seeing that the Congress of Vienna had come to blows over Saxony and sensing the obvious weekness of the Bourbons he left and we have the hundred days.
So if the Bourbons pay out regularly to keep Napoleon pacified on Elba and the Congress of Vienna moves more swiftly to a conclusion Napoleon may stay. His regime apparently made several reforms, including a new flag, white with and orange step emblazoned wih bees which I thought was kind of fun because who has bees on their flag.
As for who had or lost rights to Elba that would be he Lords of Poggio and the the Grand Dukes of Tuscany who shared the island. The Lords of Poggio were quite upset that their domain was given to Napoleon when everyone elses was restored. Plus that I think poggio itself was mediated to Tuscany so they really lost out.
 
The problem that I see in this scenario is: what would keep Napoleon there? Living in an island so near to the continent I really doubt that there wouldn't be all kind of schemes to bring him back to France. Maybe if he gets a disease or becomes invalid he could agree on living his last days peacefully in Elba, but otherwise I doubt he would accept it. He would either try to escape or kill himself (IIRC he thought about commiting suicide in Elba).
 
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