What if Mussolini never came to power?

What if Mussolini never came to power? What would happen to Italy? How would this change their History, the course of WW2, and the entire world?
 
Italy has problems and remains relatively weak. No Abyssinian adventure. The Nazis do not have Italian Fascism as a successful model. (So for instance does Hitler attempt the Munich putsch, which was patterned after the March on Rome?) Neither do other right-wing extremists such as the Spanish Falange, the Irish Blue Shirts, the British Black Shirts, the Brazilian Green Shirts (Integralists)...

If Hitler comes to power - Italy will be hostile. Weak, but hostile. Italy will oppose Germany over the Anschluss of Austria, and then over Sudtirol, but be reluctant to Do Anything. If the TL proceeds as OTL, with a war in 1939... Italy will be pro-Allied neutral, freeing the French Navy to operate in the Atlantic and additional French troops to fight in the north. Though very likely Italy will have much smaller Navy.

The pacification of Libya will drag on longer, probably, with a less ruthless Italy; or Italy may give up on Libya circa 1920.
 
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Well for one thing - those trains wont be running on time ;)

I suspect that another fascist may take power - it was all the rage.

But possibly the Italians stay on the Entente side which means that they are going to oppose any unification between Germany and Austria.
 
He was wounded in WW I when "... amortar bomb that exploded during a training exercise on February 22, 1917, killed four of Mussolini’s fellow soldiers. He escaped alive, but spent six months in the hospital, where 44 fragments of shell were removed from his body..." And then Violet Gibson attempted to assassinate him in 1926 with a Lebel revolver (assume it was Model 1892 using 8 mm French Ordnance ammunition of 192 J energy). She hit him in the nose and pistol misfired on attempted second shot. She was released to UK officials and spent the rest of her life in an asylum, along with James Joyce's daughter.
 
How strong is the Italian Left in this period? Would a prolonged period of weak Governments post war give the Italian Communists room to maneuver their way to a position of power?
 
Well for one thing - those trains wont be running on time ;)

I suspect that another fascist may take power - it was all the rage.

But possibly the Italians stay on the Entente side which means that they are going to oppose any unification between Germany and Austria.

No, without Benny to unify every regional leaders and succeeding in getting the support of the landowner and industrialist the PFI is not that great menace and it's much probable that Giolliti attempt to 'addomesticate it' will succeed...otherwise D'Annunzio will be named overall leader of the Fascisti, but unlike Mussolini the Vate is not a political animal and it's seen as a revolutionary so the King and the goverment will see him as more dangerous; it can create a serious rift in the Savoy royal family as the cousin of the King was a great friend and admirer of D'Annunzio and one supporter of the far-right (and during OTL march on Rome it was feared that he can lead a coup againt VEIII and take the throne).

How strong is the Italian Left in this period? Would a prolonged period of weak Governments post war give the Italian Communists room to maneuver their way to a position of power?

After the Biennio Rosso, the left window to have a change to a succesfull revolution were effectively closed; by now it's divided and much more weaker...worse the Socialisti Unitari are ready to enter a goverment with the Liberals; if the goverment is succesfull in approving the OTL electoral law it will mean more stronger goverment in the future.

If Hitler comes to power - Italy will be hostile. Weak, but hostile. Italy will oppose Germany over the Anschluss of Austria, and then over Sudtirol, but be reluctant to Do Anything. If the TL proceeds as OTL, with a war in 1939... Italy will be pro-Allied neutral, freeing the French Navy to operate in the Atlantic and additional French troops to fight in the north. Though very likely Italy will have much smaller Navy.

If Hilter come to power Italy will probably follow British and French lead regarding any move so it's very possible that an Anshluss will happen even earlier...on the other hand a unified Stresa Front can give Paris and London the assurance needed to confront Nazi Germany. In any case even a pro-allied Italy greatly complicate German effort, in primis no trusted italian laborers and later there will be the need to at least cover the south front (just in case) and anything there can't be used for the invasion of France.
Regarding the Navy (and the rest of the armed forces) they will probably be, more or less, of the same size of OTL.
No war in Abyssinia and following sanctions and autarchy, no partecipation on the Spanish civil war (and this mean that Franco and co. will lose) and in general less mismanagement due to the fascist, mean that Italy is slighlty better economically than OTL


The pacification of Libya will drag on longer, probably, with a less ruthless Italy; or Italy may give up on Libya circa 1920.

No, Libya will end as OTL, atrocities and ruthleness included...it's not that it was very different from what done in South Italy against the phenomenon of banditismo
 
I'm really doubting that Hitler gets anywhere without the example of Mussolini to make his whole enterprise seem much more plausible.
 
The name & the Italian model did not. But there were a number of proto Facist movements underway. Mussolini was drawing from widespread social and political trends when he formed his movement.

Yes, but he definitely had an influence on it. Some Right Wing movement was likely but it wouldn't have formed in the same fashion or functioned the same. It could well have evolved into some kind of neo-monarchism or straight military dictatorship without even a party to have even the pretense that the people at large matter.
 
Fascism didn't exist before Mussolini.

Gabriele_D%27Annunzio_uniforme_Aeronautica.jpg

I think you hurt D'Annunzio's feelings

Apart from the name 'Fascism' Mussolini invented virtually nothing - hell the idea of 'Fasci' organisations as popular movements in Italy go back to at least the 1890s. What he did do was take an amorphous bundle of ideas pioneered by a bunch of cocaine-snorting veterans led by a poet and turn into an organised and palatable political force.

So Blackshirted national-populists roaming Italy beating up socialists, liberals and strikers will still happen becaue Mussolini didn't invent it, under what name (squadrismo/legionismo/ligismo) is something else and whether they attain power or anything like it is up to alternate leaders and chance.

Looking to other countries like Hungary and Spain, a less organised fascist movement might be successfully manipulated by the old order and end up part of (and sidelined in) an authoritarian alliance under a traditionally conservative strongman
 
Keep in mind the Nazis started as a socialist party, with racial modifications. Absent the Italian model, with its connection to the business classes the Nazis may have remained more of a socialist movement longer & not gained votes from the middle class as quickly.
 
I think you hurt D'Annunzio's feelings

Apart from the name 'Fascism' Mussolini invented virtually nothing - hell the idea of 'Fasci' organisations as popular movements in Italy go back to at least the 1890s. What he did do was take an amorphous bundle of ideas pioneered by a bunch of cocaine-snorting veterans led by a poet and turn into an organised and palatable political force.

So Blackshirted national-populists roaming Italy beating up socialists, liberals and strikers will still happen becaue Mussolini didn't invent it, under what name (squadrismo/legionismo/ligismo) is something else and whether they attain power or anything like it is up to alternate leaders and chance.

Sure they existed before Benny, but he was him that united them, D'Annunzio while having the street creed to do that, it was totally uncapable of sustaining the grueling day to day political work necessary to make the operation a success...just take a look on how his Fiume Regency worked; plus while Benny was considered someone that can be used, the Vate was seen a too revolutionary
 
Not sure how realistic, but a fun TL/aborting of WW2 (or perhaps delaying it) could be achieved from this.

The lack of fascism makes the Nazis less successful as a socialist faction. The Weimar republic falls to the KPD, making Germany a communist country (for good or bad), probably after civil war.
Action Francaise becomes popular in France as Germany becomes even more of a boogeyman. Eventually, war breaks out between the two countries as France invades, giving Britain little reason to join in.

What happens at that point I have no idea.
 
Honesty, I feel Italy has a good possibility of undergoing it own civil war. The Kingdom will tug along for the rest of the 1920s, but everything goes to hell in 1929 and soon we have a civil war between a Industrial Red North vs Catholic and Conservative South. (Both sides would also be a ideological mess as the left would have sindicalists, national sindicalists, communists, social democrats, etc, while the right would have everything from Evolian traditionalists to would be fascists.)

Could always have France become the first Fascist State. It came close to in 1934. So French Fascism by the Far-right leagues.
 
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