What if Mussolini joined the allies in Wolrd War 2?

While I agree that the full-East approach was the easiest, a good starting point would be using a 1939 map, however. This one has the present-day borders.

38da05cb2798a9339c031dc075f49170--travel-gallery-wall-gallery-wall-art.jpg


Trieste and environs make a "slight" difference. I estimate a 2 week tactical movement delay.
 
Am I the only one here who doubts that France or Italy would actually fall? Was Germany really the invincible war-machine we make it out to be in 1939/40?

No, quite a few reading here think the same. It's one reason why I argue for focusing on the French & leaving the Italian Front minimally defended. Adding offensives in the South only disperses the Germans pointlessly
 

Deleted member 1487

Yes, the Julian Alps were covered on the Yugoslavian frontier
Wow two whole bunkers! I kid, but remember that the Germans did break through the Maginot line in several places, which I guarantee was a tough prospect than the fortifications on the Yugoslav-Italian border.

Edit:
BTW interesting info:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpine_Wall
The work, which was carried out in secrecy using Italian labor, was a significant economic burden, resulting in 208 opere with 647 machine guns and fifty artillery pieces. Construction continued until 1942; a report by General Vittorio Ambrosio on 3 October 1942 recorded that 1,475 bunkers had been completed and 450 more were under construction. The forts were armed with a mixture of new weaponry and older equipment from World War I. Provisions were made to deal with the use of poison gas. Much of the armour was obtained from Germany in compensation for Italian military ventures on behalf of the Axis.
Doesn't sound like it was all that complete in 1940, especially without German armor without the Italians actually being in the Axis.

2nd edit:
from Italian wikipedia:
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vallo_Alpino_del_Littorio
Building on the former Austrian border, became the German border after the ' annexation of Austria to Germany March 13, 1938, began in 1939 as a result of the mistrust that Mussolini showed towards the Germany of Hitler.
Not only that, but most of the fortification was built against France and was limited due to the expense.

This new defense of Italian borders was actually a project on the edge of the country's industrial and economic capacities. In fact, over the years the works suffered significant slowdowns due to the lack of funds, but also of raw materials .

The economic shortcomings often forced the use of inadequate materials: the use of steel was rare due to the difficulty in finding raw materials, due in part to the sanctions imposed on Italy for its invasion of Ethiopia and partly to the autarchy imposed by the fascist regime that created production and retrieval difficulties. To cope with the shortage of raw materials, Adolf Hitler sent huge quantities of goods to Italy. The steel that arrived, which was used for cannons and generally for weapons, was melted again in order to obtain beams and armored loopholes for use in fortified works. Also the coal that was used to feed the blast furnaces of the iron and steel industries responsible for the production of armor, armored doors and for the production of concrete was sent from Germany. [21]
Basically without German raw materials the fortifications weren't getting built, especially the ones that covered the German border from 1938 on.

Plus the Yugoslav border was the least fortified of the bunch:
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vallo_alpino_orientale
Unlike the works of the Western Alpine Wall and the Alpine Wall in South Tyrol , here the works are more modest in size and mostly armed with only machine guns.
Well there goes the worry about AT guns.

And small wonder their 47mm AT guns were of small use against T-34 and KV-1 tanks on the Steppes.
Or Matildas. In general in 1940 the Italians did not really do well in flat open terrain against even the much weaker and vulnerable British Cruiser tanks either.

But Alpini fighting from forts in the Alps against 1940 German gear? Whole different outcome.
Looking at Panzer IV armor, the 47mm Italian AT gun (without gun shield) would need to be closer than 500m to actually penetrate it's frontal armor at it's weakest point, but even at 100m couldn't deal with the strongest part of the frontal armor. Same for H series Panzer III, which was introduced in 1940.
In the Austria-Italian Alps yes the attacker is going to suffer badly. Along the Italian-Yugoslav border though? Well 1917 suggests otherwise, as did much of Italian performance in 1940 on any front.

The other poster mentioned the mountaineering skills of the Alpini, not "the great Italian mountaineering abilities". Either you are reading too quickly, or.
He said Alpini AND 15 infantry divisions equipped for mountain warfare while preparing for war in that terrain against that opponent.
See?:
Italy had five Alpini divisions, and they were the absolute elites of the Italian army (and among the absolute best mountaineer units at the time). On top of that, 1939 OTL saw the constitution of fifteen mountaineer infantry divisions, which were basically standard infantry but with equipment more fitting to fight and move on the mountains. This is the war the Italian army had been preparing for, against the enemy it had been preparing for, and - most importantly - where it had been preparing for.

Indeed, while the very short Italian offensive (the fight lasted two to three days depending on the sectors) was indifferent at best, the part that did work relatively well was the one where Alpini troops had been committed.
You do know that the Alpini faced fewer French troops than the non-Alpini, right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France#Fourth_Army
 
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BTW for all that talk about the great Italian mountaineering abilities, can you remind me about how well they did in the mountains against the French in 1940?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France

Defense is a lot easier than offense. Defending the mountains is much, much easier than attacking through them. We aren't talking about the Germans defending their mountains, which they can do easily, but attacking through them. That is an entirely different beast.
 

Deleted member 1487

Defense is a lot easier than offense. Defending the mountains is much, much easier than attacking through them. We aren't talking about the Germans defending their mountains, which they can do easily, but attacking through them. That is an entirely different beast.
If they go through the parts that are actually mountains sure. Which is why I and just about everyone else I think agrees that an attack would have to come out of Slovenia around the Caporetto area as in WW1 because the terrain is simply much more conducive to an offensive. And given the record of Italian defensive ability in 1940 with their pre-war army, the odds aren't good, especially given their chronic lack of equipment (budget blown on the Spanish Civil War and fortifications against France as well as the embargo by the Allies after invading Ethopia), dependency on Germany IOTL for steel, coal, and oil from 1936 on which would only change ITTL after they actually entered the war on the side of the Allies i.e. too late to really help them, and lack of combat experience against a modern opponent.
 
I did.

Also for Balbo, I would mainly imagine him mainly staying loyal to the Regime instead of being like Wang Jingwei. Since well Balbo was particularly Anti-German and opposed Anti-Semitism. And even if he

Wang Jingwei?

Ever hear of this guy?

No-one can assert with certainty that Balbo's "anti-tedescismo" (anti-Germanism) would hold up if he felt it was in Italy's interests to collaborate. As for being loyal to the regime? If it had the Moose in it, I have my doubts.
 
If they go through the parts that are actually mountains sure. Which is why I and just about everyone else I think agrees that an attack would have to come out of Slovenia around the Caporetto area as in WW1 because the terrain is simply much more conducive to an offensive. And given the record of Italian defensive ability in 1940 with their pre-war army, the odds aren't good, especially given their chronic lack of equipment (budget blown on the Spanish Civil War and fortifications against France as well as the embargo by the Allies after invading Ethopia), dependency on Germany IOTL for steel, coal, and oil from 1936 on which would only change ITTL after they actually entered the war on the side of the Allies i.e. too late to really help them, and lack of combat experience against a modern opponent.

The problem is that there is no way to get to Rome except through the mountains IIRC or the sea and there are a lot of other cities like that. So either the Germans go through the mountains to take Rome or somehow get past the RM, RN and the MF(Hah!!!). The problem with trying to take Italy and avoiding the mountains is that Italy is mostly mountains.
 
He said Alpini AND 15 infantry divisions equipped for mountain warfare while preparing for war in that terrain against that opponent.
See?:

Yes, I see that he correctly points out that the mountain infantry (not "mountaineer infantry") divisions were ordinary infantry divisions, just having mountain equipment (and, I add, that amounted to pack animals carrying disassemblable light howitzers, in place of horse-drawn limbered artillery). Claiming that he's vaunting the mountaineering skills of those stretches your credibility very thin.



You do know that the Alpini faced fewer French troops than the non-Alpini, right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France#Fourth_Army

And? The great German Übermenschen defeated Poland in a month, but nobody happens to remember what were the force ratios, right?
 

Deleted member 1487

The problem is that there is no way to get to Rome except through the mountains IIRC or the sea and there are a lot of other cities like that. So either the Germans go through the mountains to take Rome or somehow get past the RM, RN and the MF(Hah!!!). The problem with trying to take Italy and avoiding the mountains is that Italy is mostly mountains.
Ok? They go through the easiest part of the Alps on the Yugoslav border, open up the pass through Austria by taking the positions from behind (since the construction only started in 1938 and with German raw materials that shouldn't be hard to do) and advance down the boot from the north. This probably also sucks in the British forces, as the BoB may well not happen ITTL if Italy is in the war, and that opens up all sorts of craziness in Italy and the Balkans.
 

Deleted member 1487

Yes, I see that he correctly points out that the mountain infantry (not "mountaineer infantry") divisions were ordinary infantry divisions, just having mountain equipment (and, I add, that amounted to pack animals carrying disassemblable light howitzers, in place of horse-drawn limbered artillery). Claiming that he's vaunting the mountaineering skills of those stretches your credibility very thin.
Speaking of someone stretching their credibility thin, you ignored this part:
This is the war the Italian army had been preparing for, against the enemy it had been preparing for, and - most importantly - where it had been preparing for.
Which says that they had been preparing to fight defensively in the mountains, which means more than simply having special equipment for it, it also means having special, though not Alpini levels, of training to do so. Of course given some research into the actual preparations Italy did they were FAR from ready to fight in 1939 or '40.

And? The great German Übermenschen defeated Poland in a month, but nobody happens to remember what were the force ratios, right?
Has anyone actually said the Poles weren't outnumbered, outgunned, and faced a more technologically advance foe? And what the fuck does your comment have to do with what I said? The Alpini faced less resistance than the non-Alpini troops ipso facto they advanced further. Not that hard to comprehend.
 
If they go through the parts that are actually mountains sure. Which is why I and just about everyone else I think agrees that an attack would have to come out of Slovenia around the Caporetto area as in WW1 because the terrain is simply much more conducive to an offensive.

Once you have passed the border at the Trate Pass (800 meters) and advanced for 75 kms along the narrow Idrijca valley to Kobarid, after a few more kilometers you are in this:

stupizza.jpg


Note this is a part where the valley broadens a little, that's why there's the village of Stupizza. Observe how farther ahead the bottom of the valley barely can contain the road (in a tunnel), the torrent floor, and, not visible now, but existing at the time a (narrow-gauge) railroad. In places, the valley bottom is about 50 meters across, with steep wooded and rocky hillsides either side.

From Caporetto, this is the fastest and best route towards the italian plains.

As mentioned, I do think the Germans would break through - eventually. Calling this place "not mountains" can be done by someone who hasn't visited it - I have.
 
Ok? They go through the easiest part of the Alps on the Yugoslav border, open up the pass through Austria by taking the positions from behind (since the construction only started in 1938 and with German raw materials that shouldn't be hard to do) and advance down the boot from the north. This probably also sucks in the British forces, as the BoB may well not happen ITTL if Italy is in the war, and that opens up all sorts of craziness in Italy and the Balkans.

Yeah, but they aren't likely to take Rome and give GB a foothold in Europe itself that won't be easily pushed out. So it sucks in British troops? Fine, they aren't needed in NA anyways and Italy is more important than NA anyways. Besides it will suck in even more German troops and Germany has only so many troops.
 
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Even if Italy doesn’t send net forces to France, can’t they trade French mountaineer forces for mobile Italian units?

Also freeing up some stuff in North Africa and changing the air war.
 
kobarid-from-the-kolovrat.jpg


And this is Kobarid, Caporetto, another part of the "not mountain" region. The valley bottom is larger here, though at the time it was more wooded. In places it is about 400 meters across.

I would also recommend streetviewing Google Maps in the valley North of Idrija, another place the German comfortable advance from Yugoslavia has to pass through. Nice scenic views of the narrow valley.
 
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Driftless

Donor
If Italy joins the Allies and there is no North Africa Campaign, here are a few knock-ons:
1. More British military might may be directed to upgrading the defense of Singapore. Studies had been done in the mid-thirties, recommendations made and approved, but that got knocked to flinders by 1940 events in Europe.
2. Gen Richard O'Connor doesn't get captured.
3. Does Monty become MONTY! ?
4. What happens to Wavell, Auchinleck, Gott, Stirling ?​
 

nbcman

Donor
If they go through the parts that are actually mountains sure. Which is why I and just about everyone else I think agrees that an attack would have to come out of Slovenia around the Caporetto area as in WW1 because the terrain is simply much more conducive to an offensive. And given the record of Italian defensive ability in 1940 with their pre-war army, the odds aren't good, especially given their chronic lack of equipment (budget blown on the Spanish Civil War and fortifications against France as well as the embargo by the Allies after invading Ethopia), dependency on Germany IOTL for steel, coal, and oil from 1936 on which would only change ITTL after they actually entered the war on the side of the Allies i.e. too late to really help them, and lack of combat experience against a modern opponent.
If the Italians were friendly enough to join the war on the Allied side, the Ethiopian embargo would have been lifted prior to the start of the war and the Italians could get more steel, coal and oil from the French / UK than the Germans could ever supply. So the equipment side for Italy will not be as bad as OTL - however, their training / organization will most likely be as bad as OTL.
 
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