What if Mussolini joined the allies in Wolrd War 2?

If Italy does fall, then Hitler's war is mostly done, because it means Germany has been bled dry. It sure as hell doesn't have the means to invade the USSR anymore.

Even if not bled dry, any large scale Mediterranean campaign delays the main event in the east by a fatal amount. If Rome is open to a coup de main it's worth taking, but any sustained effort in the south has too little gain in the early years. If the USSR is knocked out that can be revisited.
 
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There's a reason why Churchill called Italy 'Hitler's soft underbelly'. Not securing their southern front would be a colossal mistake, but as has been pointed out, occupying Italy would be a logistical nightmare. But, this is Hitler we're talking about. If he's crazy enough to invade the USSR, I think he's crazy enough to try and occupy Italy.

As per RTL, "Smiling Albert" is likely to find a way to handle the logistical nightmare and get 'er done. Let me be honest; despite the second citation's whitewash impression that one reads. I personally think Kesselring, according, to the record we have of him, was something of a monster and a war criminal^1, but I, for one, cannot say that he was incompetent when it came to nuts and bolts staff-work or management skills with his "allies" or subordinates.

^1 Forces he commanded are alleged to have committed at least 9,000 murders of Italian citizens during the German occupation of Italy. If Yamashita was responsible for his troops in Malaysia and the Philippine Islands in some way, a much better case the British made for accusing Kesselring exists, for there was no doubt that the German troops in Italy were under Kesselring's positive control.
 

Usagi

Gone Fishin'
I'll add another complication to the mix. What happens to the Kingdom of Yugoslavia? In real history Hitler invades in 1941 with not minor Italian support (along with other client states such as Hungary).
Italy would soak up a lot of German military power, if they don't invade, the entire Adriatic coast is a happy hunting ground for the Allies.
well Hitler would be too busy fighting the Italians to actually commit to a war with Yugoslavia.
 

nbcman

Donor
The smart German focused on defeating France and picking up the resource points in the west. I seldom took a invasion of Britain or a Mediterranean campaign seriously. Team blacks strength was it's seriously strong land army & I played to that.
Even if the German does a standard gambit of hoovering up the western minors (Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, and Lux) for BRPs by the end of 1939, they will have BRP issues in 1940 because of the increased casualties plus the need to pay for a lot more offensives. They do have a strong army but a strong French-British defense with an Italian distraction makes it likely that France would fall later than Spring / Summer 40, requires the Germans to defeat the Italians by the end of 1940, and probably fatally weakens a 1941 Barbarossa in Summer 41 if they can't purchase all their units or get enough of their forces SRed to the east.
 
Am I the only one here who doubts that France or Italy would actually fall? Was Germany really the invincible war-machine we make it out to be in 1939/40?
 
Even if not bled dry, any large scale Mediterranean campaign delays the main event in the east by a fatal amount. If Rome is open to a couple be main it's worth taking, but any sustained effort in the south has too little gain in the early years. If the USSR is knocked out that can be revisited.
Until the Alps are cracked, panzers are right out - it's just impossible to drive a tank through them, there's no flamethrower large enough to burn them down, and unlike the Ardennes the Alps are heavily fortified, despite being considered absolutely horrid to invade through to begin with - Italy had been preparing for a round 2 for years, after all. That leaves the whole matter as infantry charging through killbox-ized valleys, with bunkers dug inside mountainsides and not exactly easy to bomb, and artillery being king - if you can get it into position.

In short, it's a lot closer to WW1 than Germany would be comfortable with. And even when (or if?) the Alps are cracked (which is a huge problem, because a lot of the industrial areas are now vulnerable), there's the Po, and then the Appennines all the way through to Rome with no interruption. It's a mess. I stand by my "bled dry" analysis.

Am I the only one here who doubts that France or Italy would actually fall? Was Germany really the invincible war-machine we make it out to be in 1939/40?
You're not - I just concede that it is entirely possible, given the sorry state of the Italian army at the onset of this war. But the Alps are just too big, too immobile, and too fortified to do a Sedan through them - even more, in this occasion, as continued hostility would see the Alpine Wall being completed, especially if Mussolini has to concede Austria in 1938. If Germany gets through the Alps, the Po, and the Appennines, then Italy falls, but Germany itself follows soon thereafter, with such a slaughter.
 
I'm somewhat surprised by the suggestions of Italian troops sent to France for the 1940 campaign. I find it rather likely that any Italy, and in particular a Mussolini-led Italy, would want to carry out a war in the Eastern Alps - the scenario for which the Regio Esercito was built.
Now, obviously there is much less hope for the Italian units to break through to the Austrian wider valleys beyond the Alps proper, than for the German ones to do the reverse. However, that's not necessary. If Italy attacks at the same time as the Germans advance into Belgium, not only there will be less French units in the Western Alps and in Tunisia; but also the Germans have to either have deployed already, or else redeploy in all haste, at least a dozen divisions to hold the Austrian border. These can be second-rate and even third-rate infantry divisions, but they are still not serving as garrisons in Poland or as hole-fillers in France.
 

Deleted member 1487

You're not - I just concede that it is entirely possible, given the sorry state of the Italian army at the onset of this war. But the Alps are just too big, too immobile, and too fortified to do a Sedan through them - even more, in this occasion, as continued hostility would see the Alpine Wall being completed, especially if Mussolini has to concede Austria in 1938. If Germany gets through the Alps, the Po, and the Appennines, then Italy falls, but Germany itself follows soon thereafter, with such a slaughter.
Depends. If he can force Yugoslavia to at least allow for transit if not even get them in an alliance, then there is the Caporetto route:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Caporetto
With the number of mountain divisions Germany had (a full corps as of 1938), paratroopers, and light divisions coupled with a much superior air force it wouldn't be that difficult to breach that part of the Alps. Not like it hadn't been done before in worse offensive circumstances.
 
Germany could likely back Yugoslavia and/or in false flag incident incite them against Italy? and to lesser extent enlist Greece and Turkey against Italy also?
 
Not that early, fighting in the mountains is not quick. If Italy joins the Allies , Germany is likely fighting the French and British in the Italian Alps along with the Italian Army.
And the Moose had directed that Maginot style hardpoints be built along all the passes, and did some of the first 'Dragons Teeth' to restrict
zuW7opC_d.jpg
movement elsewhere
 
Depends. If he can force Yugoslavia to at least allow for transit if not even get them in an alliance, then there is the Caporetto route:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Caporetto
With the number of mountain divisions Germany had (a full corps as of 1938), paratroopers, and light divisions coupled with a much superior air force it wouldn't be that difficult to breach that part of the Alps. Not like it hadn't been done before in worse offensive circumstances.
Caporetto also relied on an extremely dense chemical bombing on the sleeping trenches, aided by exceptional wind conditions. Germany in WW2 has neither.

Also, what I'm seeing looking around is two mountain divisions before the Anschluss and one more formed out of Austria troops afterwards, with more to come from 1940 onward; in the same period, Italy had five Alpini divisions, and they were the absolute elites of the Italian army (and among the absolute best mountaineer units at the time). On top of that, 1939 OTL saw the constitution of fifteen mountaineer infantry divisions, which were basically standard infantry but with equipment more fitting to fight and move on the mountains. This is the war the Italian army had been preparing for, against the enemy it had been preparing for, and - most importantly - where it had been preparing for. It's a lot of advantages, and Germany has to care about France at the same time.
 

Deleted member 1487

Caporetto also relied on an extremely dense chemical bombing on the sleeping trenches, aided by exceptional wind conditions. Germany in WW2 has neither.
Germany does have chemical weapons, but yes, can't use them. That said they didn't need to rely on them with much more modern weapons like incendiary bombs, rockets, smoke cover, dive bombers, tanks, etc.
As it was only about 500-600 Italians were killed by gas and the mortar and mine explosions did more to disrupt the Italian positions. The gas was only useful for clearing a single valley, which in WW2 wasn't exactly hard given the technology of day vs. WW1. They still had to use conventional means in 1917 to clear the high ground. And that's assuming the Italians even have WW1 level fortifications built up over years of trench warfare along the Slovenian border, which seems doubtful.

Also, what I'm seeing looking around is two mountain divisions before the Anschluss and one more formed out of Austria troops afterwards, with more to come from 1940 onward; in the same period, Italy had five Alpini divisions, and they were the absolute elites of the Italian army (and among the absolute best mountaineer units at the time). On top of that, 1939 OTL saw the constitution of fifteen mountaineer infantry divisions, which were basically standard infantry but with equipment more fitting to fight and move on the mountains. This is the war the Italian army had been preparing for, against the enemy it had been preparing for, and - most importantly - where it had been preparing for. It's a lot of advantages, and Germany has to care about France at the same time.
The Alpini are also needed to cover the Franco-Italian border if/when France is defeated on the continent. I doubt all 5 could be spared to cover the border with Yugoslavia, especially if they join or at least allow the Germans to move through unexpectedly. Besides, remember how the Alpini did against the Soviets in 1942 after years of combat experience?

BTW for all that talk about the great Italian mountaineering abilities, can you remind me about how well they did in the mountains against the French in 1940?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France

Also given that we're talking about an invasion of Italy after France falls, I'm not sure why the Germans would have to worry about the French at that time.
 
And the Moose had directed that Maginot style hardpoints be built along all the passes, and did some of the first 'Dragons Teeth' to restrict
zuW7opC_d.jpg
movement elsewhere

Yeah, that does look bad. In any case, the Italian Army might have been very poor but a boy scout troop with slingshots can hold out in the Italian Alps at least long enough for UK troops to arrive as reinforcements. The Alps are no joke.
 
Definitely not. Balbo was very opposed to the Italo-German Alliance and the Axis, he also opposed Anti-Semitism. So unlikely, he would become a Nazi Puppet. He would stay loyal to Mussolini.

The most likely candidates would be Roberto Farinacci and Giovanni Preziosi, they were Extremely Anti-Semitic and Slavishly Pro-German.

Did you read what I wrote about Smiling Albert?

BTW, Balbo loyal to the Moose? Maybe? YMMV. Mine does.
 
The Alpini are also needed to cover the Franco-Italian border if/when France is defeated on the continent. I doubt all 5 could be spared to cover the border with Yugoslavia, especially if they join or at least allow the Germans to move through unexpectedly. Besides, remember how the Alpini did against the Soviets in 1942 after years of combat experience?
Well enough, for divisions deployed outside their preferred terrain, undersupplied by strained logistics, and in the end surrounded by the collapse of allied troops on their flanks. They even managed to break out of the encirclement and retreat (with absolutely appalling losses, of course).

BTW for all that talk about the great Italian mountaineering abilities, can you remind me about how well they did in the mountains against the French in 1940?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France
That happens, when you're told to charge through mountains you have no plan nor equipment to charge through, with a week or two of preparation.

Also given that we're talking about an invasion of Italy after France falls, I'm not sure why the Germans would have to worry about the French at that time.
Point taken.
 
The Caporetto gap is fine in WWI. In 1939, however, it was deep in Italian territory, the border having been moved rather farther East. A Germany that has defeated France first, then Yugoslavia, could still force the pass at Medvedje Brdo, then advance for some 75 kms in the narrow Idrijca valley, thus reaching the upper Isonzo valley, and Caporetto (Kobarid). Not so easy and quick, and the Italians would see them coming.

That said, personally I believe that if the French-British-Italian-Yugoslavian alliance is crazy enough to let the Germans take them out one by one, the Germans can force the Eastern Alpine passes and valleys, in summer. The butcher bill will be high, but with a combination of small paratroop drops, sustained air superiority, and sheer firepower, I think they can.

That done, they are still very very far from Rome.

And as pointed above, if Mussolini has chosen the French side of the fence, then the obvious move is to deploy most of his strength in the Western Alps. Even if he doesn't attack, it's entirely likely the Germans flounder somewhere in France, because of the altered balances of forces. If he does attack while the Germans are committing to their Western offensive, I think Germany gets what they deserve straight away. Not by any Allied lightning advance, but simply because the Germans are stopped - and staying put, for them, is defeat.
 
And that's assuming the Italians even have WW1 level fortifications built up over years of trench warfare along the Slovenian border, which seems doubtful.
...
Besides, remember how the Alpini did against the Soviets in 1942 after years of combat experience?

.

Yes, the Julian Alps were covered on the Yugoslavian frontier
Dsc08203.jpg

Oss_est11.jpg

And small wonder their 47mm AT guns were of small use against T-34 and KV-1 tanks on the Steppes.

But Alpini fighting from forts in the Alps against 1940 German gear? Whole different outcome.
 
The Caporetto gap is fine in WWI. In 1939, however, it was deep in Italian territory, the border having been moved rather farther East. A Germany that has defeated France first, then Yugoslavia, could still force the pass at Medvedje Brdo, then advance for some 75 kms in the narrow Idrijca valley, thus reaching the upper Isonzo valley, and Caporetto (Kobarid). Not so easy and quick, and the Italians would see them coming.

That said, personally I believe that if the French-British-Italian-Yugoslavian alliance is crazy enough to let the Germans take them out one by one, the Germans can force the Eastern Alpine passes and valleys, in summer. The butcher bill will be high, but with a combination of small paratroop drops, sustained air superiority, and sheer firepower, I think they can.

That done, they are still very very far from Rome.

And as pointed above, if Mussolini has chosen the French side of the fence, then the obvious move is to deploy most of his strength in the Western Alps. Even if he doesn't attack, it's entirely likely the Germans flounder somewhere in France, because of the altered balances of forces. If he does attack while the Germans are committing to their Western offensive, I think Germany gets what they deserve straight away. Not by any Allied lightning advance, but simply because the Germans are stopped - and staying put, for them, is defeat.

upload_2019-7-25_10-29-36.png


You don't think like an amateur (WW I German general staff.). You look at your terrain densities and side step a bit. It is doable.
 
BTW for all that talk about the great Italian mountaineering abilities, can you remind me about how well they did in the mountains against the French in 1940?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France

The other poster mentioned the mountaineering skills of the Alpini, not "the great Italian mountaineering abilities". Either you are reading too quickly, or.

Indeed, while the very short Italian offensive (the fight lasted two to three days depending on the sectors) was indifferent at best, the part that did work relatively well was the one where Alpini troops had been committed.
 
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