What if Mussolini joined the allies in Wolrd War 2?

Italy interfering with Anschluss after Britain and France have given the go ahead probably means that Mussolini is castigated as a war mongerer by all the right thinking people of Europe. Later, after all the evils of the Nazi regime have been put on public display, ITTL it's fascists that get to be insufferable about being "prematurely anti-Nazi" instead of communists.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Would Mussolini's regime still survive after WW2 if he decided to join the Allies?
Probably. Franco's did and he was neutral. Italy would be seen as "good" fascists since even they turned on the Nazis and sided with the Allies. It also, unfortunately, gives a lot of ammo to the "fascists are not the same thing as Nazis" line of argument
 
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Probably. Franco's did and he was neutral. Italy would be seen as "good" fascists since even they turned on the Nazis and sided with the Allies. It also, unfortunately, gives a lot of ammo to the "fascists are not the same thing as Nazis" love of argument

Mainly because in TTL it would be true.
 
Germany invades Italy in 1940, to secure their southern flank, and installs a collaborationist puppet regime, resulting in Mussolini fleeing to Libya to continue the fight alongside the Free French. After the end of the war, Fascist Italy becomes a powerful ally in the fight against Communism. When Mussolini dies in this timeline, how he is remembered will be sharply divided. To the Europeans, he would be a flawed man, but a hero in the war against Nazism. To his victims (mainly the Ethiopians since I don't see him invading Yugoslavia in this timeline, unless it remained an Axis ally which is unlikely due to the OTL coup), he would be remembered as a butcher. Fascism becomes more widely accepted than in our timeline.

Two questions

In the Nazi occupation of Italy in this timeline, who could be the best candidate to lead a Nazi puppet government?

When Mussolini dies in this timeline, could Fascist Italy survive his death or would it transition back to democracy ala Spain?
 

Usagi

Gone Fishin'
In the Nazi occupation of Italy in this timeline, who could be the best candidate to lead a Nazi puppet government?

When Mussolini dies in this timeline, could Fascist Italy survive his death or would it transition back to democracy ala Spain?

The first one i have no idea, the second one really depends on the situation at the time, like we have to remember decolonization, which OTL were the reasons why numerous totalitarian, specifically the fascist portuguese government in the 70s, were toppled. It also depends if the monarchy is still around, i feel like if Mussolini and the Fascist Party gain a lot of respect and honor after the war, they could probably abolish the Monarchy in secret.
 

Marc

Donor
Germany invades Italy in 1940, to secure their southern flank, and installs a collaborationist puppet regime, resulting in Mussolini fleeing to Libya to continue the fight alongside the Free French. After the end of the war, Fascist Italy becomes a powerful ally in the fight against Communism. When Mussolini dies in this timeline, how he is remembered will be sharply divided. To the Europeans, he would be a flawed man, but a hero in the war against Nazism. To his victims (mainly the Ethiopians since I don't see him invading Yugoslavia in this timeline, unless it remained an Axis ally which is unlikely due to the OTL coup), he would be remembered as a butcher. Fascism becomes more widely accepted than in our timeline.

Two questions

In the Nazi occupation of Italy in this timeline, who could be the best candidate to lead a Nazi puppet government?

When Mussolini dies in this timeline, could Fascist Italy survive his death or would it transition back to democracy ala Spain?

As others have noted, it's not a walk in the park for the Wehrmacht - particularly if they are war at the same time with France and the British.
Second the Germans are not well thought of in Italy, which is an understatement. They would have to treat it as a very hostile conquest - think numerous garrisons, the nightmare patrolling the coast
Taking all of Italy is likely logistically impossible for the Germans; obviously Sardinia is a island too far; even trying to take Sicily with no naval forces in the Med is probably hopeless.
Austria becomes in play for the Allies if they decided not to attack.
 

Marc

Donor
I'll add another complication to the mix. What happens to the Kingdom of Yugoslavia? In real history Hitler invades in 1941 with not minor Italian support (along with other client states such as Hungary).
Italy would soak up a lot of German military power, if they don't invade, the entire Adriatic coast is a happy hunting ground for the Allies.
 
Does Germany have to invade Italy?

Can't they just sit back on defense and wait for Italy to make their move? If any comes at all.

Western front goes same with France falling...Then I guess we get straight up Germany vs Russia
 
Spoiler ahead! Though of an Italian novel...

There's an AH novel in Italian in which Italy remains neutral well into the war, and then it is attacked by Germany simply because it is neutral but Allied-friendly.
The Germans never manage to fully occupy Italy, even though they make use of Vichy French (now German-allied), Croatian, Hungarian etc. troops to bolster their numbers. They do cross the Alps, but at a heavy price, then they advance South but get delayed at multiple fortification lines along rivers and the Apennines (reminds us of something...).
In a nice twist, there is an Italian civil war - but Mussolini and his regime remain loyal to the Allies, while it's the King and his old-guard generals that change sides. This doesn't do much good to the Germans.


Not invading Italy means that air bases in Italy can be used for a bomber campaign against Southern Germany, as well as Ploesti.

I'll add that in 1937, Italy was producing 10% of the total world production of bauxite. Yugoslavia 9%. Germany OTOH was producing 2%. Even capturing a 16% from France (not from colonies, thus within german reach) and a 13% from Hungary, that's a big chunk of aluminium - aircraft fuselages - that becomes unavailable to the Axis, unless the Axis come and take it.
 
How about this scenario: Mussolini makes a different calculation in 1940, and decides that the Allies will most likely win in the long run. He tries to send troops to France to help defend against the Germans, but delays caused French mistrust and the quick German advance ensure this has no real effect on the fall of France. However, some French forces evacuate to northern Italy.

The Germans cannot allow the Allies to have airbases in northern Italy, and in the mood of invincibility after France attacks southward. The terrain makes the progress slow, but Italian forces are consistently pushed back.

Britain sees the danger a German-occupied Italy poses to the link to India through Suez (the OTL situation), and transfers forces from Egypt to support the Italians. The end result is a lang, drawn-out fight in Italy, possibly ending in a stalemate somwhere on the peninsula.
 
What if Fascist Italy fought with the Allies against Germany in World War II instead of fighting with the axis? How would this change Italy and Europe?

Hmm.

Won't speak about the ASBs that flutter around, here, because the 'intense' Franco-Italian rivalry in North Africa was no joke, and neither was Anglo-Italian rivalry in east Africa. Ethiopia is still a big problem and geo-political event that makes it difficult for Rome and London. Then there is Spain.

However, if Benny the Moose does hold to his pre-Anschluss policy and does not go cuckoo for cocoa puffs, there is a "slight" chance that he retains "good" relations with Washington. That might help if he stays neutral.

Belligerency has to come as an outgrowth of a German attack on Italy or Italian interests. I see the Balkans as being the theater in that case and Yugoslavia, Hungary and RUMANIA as the causus belli.

Why Benny would go after Ploesti beats me. Italy has not the march reach or the logistics to get out of the peninsula at above brigade strength overland. Sea lift? Maybe support 10 divisions in an overseas colonial setting. So Benny won't be headed for the Balkans against the Germans. That is suicide.

On the other hand, I can see Fatso (Goering) and Hat on Too Tight (Raeder) argue a "Mediterranean Strategy" to the Berlin Maniac. Germany has to pursue one if she wants to beat the UK. Italy is obviously in the way. There is your reason the Italians are fighting Isonzo 2.0.

Can the Alpini hold against the Gebirgsjäger? Not without a lot of help.

From my point of view?

Italian "ranai" (frogmen) are a Murphy send to any ally willing to learn how to do it right. Ditto torpedoes. Nothing says a shorter war in the Pacific like Silurificio (Naples made torpedoes) fish and UDTs who learned how to frogman from the Decima Flottiglia MAS (Decima Flottiglia Motoscafi Armati Siluranti) 10th motorized assault vehicle flotilla.
 
How about this scenario: Mussolini makes a different calculation in 1940, and decides that the Allies will most likely win in the long run.

Ok...

He tries to send troops to France to help defend against the Germans,...

No.
If he thinks the Allies are going to win, then he waits until they are on the point of winning. Only then does he lend a helpful hand.

OTOH; if he's been consistent with this tack since, say, 1937 (hard for him), then it's likely there's no Pact of Steel, and if anything there has been a rapproachment with France. Therefore the French can keep a few divisions less on the Alpine and Tunisian borders. If in addition to that there is some anti-German saber-rattling (say a partial mobilization of the Alpini divisions in the Eastern Alps), it is Germany that must keep some divisions on the Austrian passes.
This alone can change the outcome in 1939.
 

nbcman

Donor
Third Reich. It was handy for testing alternative alliances & strategies. Main defect was bone headed players who did not grasp the core economic/stratigic structure of it. They wanted to push corps of Tiger tanks across Europe.

The others of the era were poorly designed, or too big for practical grand strategy. The SPI Europa game was a example of the 'too large' school.
Assuming the French player wasn't boneheaded in their setup and allowed the Germans to blitz them in Fall 39, it would be pretty hard for Germany to take out France with 4 British 3-4 infs and a 4-5 armor in northern France by the end of the Fall 39 turn followed by two more 3-4 infs and another 4-5 armor in Winter 39. It leaves the UK defense light in Fall 1939 (1 inf & 1 armor plus two air fleets and 3 fleets) but the three French fleets in Cherbourg can intercept a German attempt to grab a beachhead that turn. By Winter 39, the French, Italian and British navies would be concentrated in the Atlantic (at a minimum 3 French, 4 Italian and 6 British) and Germany would have to get very lucky to land in the UK with all those interception fleets. Italy isn't going to push into Austria but will tie down substantial German forces that the Germans can't afford to divert from their other attacks-and the Germans would need to build more land forces which would stop at least one of the two German fleets from being built in Fall 1939.
 
I'll add another complication to the mix. What happens to the Kingdom of Yugoslavia? In real history Hitler invades in 1941 with not minor Italian support (along with other client states such as Hungary).

Well, assuming the OTL coup in YUgoslavi happens in this timeline, Hitler invades as per usual, but in our timeline, Yugoslavia was partitioned into territory occupied by Germany, Italy, Hungary or the Independent State of Croatia, a German-Italian client state. I'm wondering if in this timeline, with Italy being an enemy nation bordering Yugoslavia, would Hitler keep the Yugoslav nation together, just under Prince Paul?

Does Germany have to invade Italy?

Can't they just sit back on defense and wait for Italy to make their move? If any comes at all.

There's a reason why Churchill called Italy 'Hitler's soft underbelly'. Not securing their southern front would be a colossal mistake, but as has been pointed out, occupying Italy would be a logistical nightmare. But, this is Hitler we're talking about. If he's crazy enough to invade the USSR, I think he's crazy enough to try and occupy Italy.
 
There is quite a difference if Italy is remains neutral in 1940 or joins the allies. If Neutral then I would expect the fall of France to be as OTL. If on the other hand Italy is a co-belligerent with France then there is a possibility hat a proportion of the French forces will retreat into Italy to continue the fight. If Italy is willing to send troops into France to fight with the French then perhaps it is nit to ASB for the south of France from the Atlantic ocean to the massive central and then to the Swiss/Italian border to be held as Free France.
 
Germany invades Italy in 1940, to secure their southern flank, and installs a collaborationist puppet regime, resulting in Mussolini fleeing to Libya to continue the fight alongside the Free French. After the end of the war, Fascist Italy becomes a powerful ally in the fight against Communism. When Mussolini dies in this timeline, how he is remembered will be sharply divided. To the Europeans, he would be a flawed man, but a hero in the war against Nazism. To his victims (mainly the Ethiopians since I don't see him invading Yugoslavia in this timeline, unless it remained an Axis ally which is unlikely due to the OTL coup), he would be remembered as a butcher. Fascism becomes more widely accepted than in our timeline.

Two questions

In the Nazi occupation of Italy in this timeline, who could be the best candidate to lead a Nazi puppet government?

When Mussolini dies in this timeline, could Fascist Italy survive his death or would it transition back to democracy ala Spain?
If Italy does fall, then Hitler's war is mostly done, because it means Germany has been bled dry. It sure as hell doesn't have the means to invade the USSR anymore.
 
Assuming the French player wasn't boneheaded in their setup and allowed the Germans to blitz them in Fall 39, it would be pretty hard for Germany to take out France with 4 British 3-4 infs and a 4-5 armor in northern France by the end of the Fall 39 turn followed by two more 3-4 infs and another 4-5 armor in Winter 39. It leaves the UK defense light in Fall 1939 (1 inf & 1 armor plus two air fleets and 3 fleets) but the three French fleets in Cherbourg can intercept a German attempt to grab a beachhead that turn. By Winter 39, the French, Italian and British navies would be concentrated in the Atlantic (at a minimum 3 French, 4 Italian and 6 British) and Germany would have to get very lucky to land in the UK with all those interception fleets. Italy isn't going to push into Austria but will tie down substantial German forces that the Germans can't afford to divert from their other attacks-and the Germans would need to build more land forces which would stop at least one of the two German fleets from being built in Fall 1939.

The smart German focused on defeating France and picking up the resource points in the west. I seldom took a invasion of Britain or a Mediterranean campaign seriously. Team blacks strength was it's seriously strong land army & I played to that.
 
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