What if Mussolini invaded Yugoslavia instead of Greece in 1940?

Italian irredentism was a major factor in the success of Mussolini's popularity as leader. And one of Italy's most disputed areas was the Dalmatian Coast in the Balkan region. While Italy was given the city of Zara, the rest of the region was given the newly-formed Yugoslavia. The fact that Italy was denied this accession of territory was essential for the rise of Benito Mussolini. Il Duce's ego was enormous, believing himself to be someone fit to create a new Roman Empire. But the Italian army was pitiful, especially in comparison to the other Great Powers. They were ill-equipped, was lacking in military talent and only Mussolini was confident that Italian troops would be exceptional. But even he expressed to Hitler that Italy wouldn't be ready for war until 1942. Nevertheless, Italy entered World War II on the side of Germany in 1940. The Italian Army only had entered conflict with Libyan rebels, Ethiopia, and Albania. The reason why those were such easy victories was the Italian superiority over their targets, but it wasn't a grand accomplishment. They sent in volunteers in the Spanish Civil War to aid Franco's army, but they were woefully outperformed by the power of the German divisions sent in the same conflict. And while Germany enjoyed successful victories throughout 1939-40, Mussolini was determined to have a campaign of his own. But he was fatally overconfident in his choice: Greece. The Italian invasion of Greece is considered to be one of the worst mistakes made in World War II. Only did the Greek armies benefit from their geography, but they were better-equipped and more organized than the Italians. Worse yet, the Greek prime minister even modeled his government on Mussolini's reign in Italy. With this invasion, the Italians opened another front for the Allies to fight in and in odds that were heavily against Mussolini. Eventually, Germany had to send divisions to Greece, where again, they easily outperformed the Italians. Hitler had originally planned to invade the Soviet Union on May 15th, 1941 but British firepower in Greece forced him to delay Barbarossa by 6 weeks. And we know how the Germans suffered through the Russian winter. In short, not only the Greek campaign costly and detrimental, but it was meaningless.

But what if Mussolini had directed his aims on Yugoslavia instead? The newly-formed country had the disputed land that Italians vehemently claimed as their own, particularly the Dalmatian coast. Not only that, but the Yugoslavian Army was even worse than the Italian Army, suffering from the same poor equipment but also plagued with ethnic tensions. Yugoslavia did not have the same geographical advantage as Greece and it was not ready for conflict. The Slavic nation was also against the idea of their government siding with the Nazis. What if Mussolini is convinced by his generals to attack Yugoslavia instead? What if Hitler found out about plans to invade Greece and pressure the Italians from conducting it? What overall effect would this have in the war? Would the Germans benefit from an earlier date of Barbarossa than OTL? Would the Italians succeed against the Yugoslavian army, or will it again require German aid? Will Greece remain neutral and prevent either faction from having military access or will it side with the Italians later on? Will the Axis Powers have a greater advantage in WW2 and possibly win, or will the Allies still gain the upper hand and defeat Germany and Italy?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Things to be considered :
  • at that time Hitler and his entourage were busy with planning for Barbarossa, they did not want war on the Balkan, but were keen on keeping it as quit as possible ("Weak belly" of europe, possible theatre of attack by the wallies)
  • Germany at that time heavily exploited the country in economical terms, something it wouldn't want to be interupted by a war and ... by a Mussolini now controlling it.
  • Germany (Hitler) wanted Jugoslavia rather as an (puppet)ally, than a war-zone
These you should, IMHO, somehow adress.
 
Things to be considered :
  • at that time Hitler and his entourage were busy with planning for Barbarossa, they did not want war on the Balkan, but were keen on keeping it as quit as possible ("Weak belly" of europe, possible theatre of attack by the wallies)
  • Germany at that time heavily exploited the country in economical terms, something it wouldn't want to be interupted by a war and ... by a Mussolini now controlling it.
  • Germany (Hitler) wanted Jugoslavia rather as an (puppet)ally, than a war-zone
These you should, IMHO, somehow adress.
Thank you, I will address these.

1. It's not likely that Hitler will let Mussolini have influence over ALL of Yugoslavia. Slovenia would likely be ceded to Germany. Vojvodina would go to Hungary. Macedonia would go to Bulgaria. What's left will be Axis puppet states of Croatia and Serbia, which is the likely case. The resources would still be utilized for German purposes. The entire region of Yugoslavia will then be aligned to the Axis Powers.

2. Italy's war with Yugoslavia wouldn't take a severely long time. Granted, both countries had weak militaries, but Italy had a quantity advantage. And the Yugoslavian army was, as I said, plagued with ethnic problems. It's not too certain how long an Italian war with Yugoslavia would be, but it would take FAR less long than when Mussolini invaded Greece.

3. The Germans would likely force the Italians to only participate in North Africa and defend the borders of their own country and the Dalmatian Coast. Hitler would be content to have Mussolini have his victory in the Balkans but would have more weight to express that the Italians shouldn't be involved in Barbarossa, considering that the Italians would be a worthless addition in Hitler's strive for the East. Granted, Italian defense of their peninsula and North Africa will surely be surpassed by the might of the Allied Powers, but it's better than no defense at all. By the time the Allies launch a serious offensive into Europe, Germany would have made successful advances into Russia (POSSIBLE victory, but it's not guaranteed).
 
A Jugoslavian War would probably be met with far higher interest by the Italian populace, work on far better logistic as you can start from Italian bases in Istria in addition to Albania, have better claims to press (those of Pavelic's NDH and Albanian irredentism over Kosovo) and would lead to a far better performance by Italian forces. Nothing too wonderful, but definitely ahead of the abysmal Greece showing.
Also, one interesting thing (assuming it roughly starts when the Greek War did) is that with the war literally on the other side of the Adriatic, there might be more interest in moving away/keeping under tighter surveillance the fleet which was at Taranto and struck there by the English.
I'd say you end up with a war similar to OTL's invasion - except with more resistance, as Italy will spearhead and Germany and allies are then forced to react, and join in to preserve their strategic interests in the region as Yugoslavia would be provoked into siding with the Allies; also, Italy will have more weight in the carving up and you might end up with a condominium in both Croatia and Serbia
Now, the next question on the table will be the status of Greece; it might well pull a Yugoslavia and end up siding with the Axis too, maybe even taking a small part in the invasion of Macedonia to grab some land; at any rate, it will be the UK who is forced to choose between relocation on the opposite camp or a swift attempt at invasion.

All in all, I think it'd be a gain for the Axis; you have spent less resources, still cowed the Balkans, Italy is less grudgy and more confident, and the UK is forced to react in a way that won't be as easy (capturing Crete might be easy, but the mainland isn't).
 
The British would have no way to send any force to Jugoslavia and if Greece was not invaded they would have left it alone too. This means all the resources used in the Eastern Med go into capturing Tripoli. I think we get fewer German forces in the Balkans (but only a drop in the eastern front ocean) and a British North Africa.
Question what idiocy does Churchill have to be talked out of in autumn 1941?
Question does Singapore fall?
Question if Mussolini does not have to go cap in hand to Hitler for help can he avoid sending Italian troops to fight in Russia?
 
The Yugoslav army was indeed plagued by ethnic tensions - but if there's anything that could push those tensions into the background, it's a unilateral Italian attack...
Of course, Yugoslavia cannot hope to win, but it won't be a short or easy war. The rest of the Axis may have to join later to prevent it from dragging on and on. Also, Hitler wouldn't be happy at all. He did not want this kind of distraction in the Balkans, and had explicitly warned Mussolini not to attack Yugoslavia in OTL.

Greece would be officially neutral but help Yugoslavia on the side, kind of like how Yugoslavia helped Greece in OTL. Britain would also look for ways to make it as painful and distracting for the Axis as possible.
 
The British would have no way to send any force to Jugoslavia and if Greece was not invaded they would have left it alone too. This means all the resources used in the Eastern Med go into capturing Tripoli. I think we get fewer German forces in the Balkans (but only a drop in the eastern front ocean) and a British North Africa.
Question what idiocy does Churchill have to be talked out of in autumn 1941?
Question does Singapore fall?
Question if Mussolini does not have to go cap in hand to Hitler for help can he avoid sending Italian troops to fight in Russia?
1. Churchill was an intelligent man, but I'm even he would be panicking for a solution to suppress the Axis offensive. My best guess is that more British troops are sent to North Africa, posing more of a challenge for Rommel. The Japanese attack on Singapore will play the same as OTL.

2. Actually, it was Mussolini who wanted to send Italian troops to Barbarossa in order to make up for the disaster in Greece. Hitler did not want Italians in the East because he knew how weak they would be against the Russians, but he had no choice but to it.
 
Not sure. They may have ethnical division but for example Slovenian terrorist group planned assasination of Mussolini in September 1938.
Not sure if Croats wouldn't be more motivited to fight Italians too despite Pavelic collaboration.
 
The Yugoslav army was indeed plagued by ethnic tensions - but if there's anything that could push those tensions into the background, it's a unilateral Italian attack...
Of course, Yugoslavia cannot hope to win, but it won't be a short or easy war. The rest of the Axis may have to join later to prevent it from dragging on and on. Also, Hitler wouldn't be happy at all. He did not want this kind of distraction in the Balkans, and had explicitly warned Mussolini not to attack Yugoslavia in OTL.

Greece would be officially neutral but help Yugoslavia on the side, kind of like how Yugoslavia helped Greece in OTL. Britain would also look for ways to make it as painful and distracting for the Axis as possible.
Sure, The Yugoslav army will be resilient, but Italian pride should be enough to compensate. Mussolini was sufficiently jealous of Hitler's conquests and wanted similar success for Italy, and Mussolini was not one to play second-fiddle to a man who admired him, at not yet at least. I'm not sure Greece would provide aid for Yugoslavia. The Greek prime minister admired Mussolini and long as Italy respected its neutrality, Greece would remain out of the war, or at least not fight against the Axis. An Italian invasion of Yugoslavia may upset Hitler, but I'm sure he would be much more upset if he discovered plans of Mussolini's invasion of Greece before it took place. Yes, German intervention should quicken the war sufficiently, but in the end, the purpose of the war is to restore Italian pride, like when Mussolini invaded Ethiopia.
Not sure. They may have ethnical division but for example Slovenian terrorist group planned assasination of Mussolini in September 1938.
Not sure if Croats wouldn't be more motivited to fight Italians too despite Pavelic collaboration.
The Yugoslav army would seek to unite against the Italians, but their army was still weaker. However, the partisans should be able to do sufficient damage and the Italians should have trouble keeping it down, unless the Germans intervened.
I always liked this TL. Sadly, only part 1 was completed, but that covers the entirety of the invasion of Yugoslavia.
Fascinating. Just comes to show what old treasure can reveal.
 
My best guess is that more British troops are sent to North Africa, posing more of a challenge for Rommel.

This means all the resources used in the Eastern Med go into capturing Tripoli. I think we get fewer German forces in the Balkans (but only a drop in the eastern front ocean) and a British North Africa.

Assuming this happens when the Greek War happened OTL, the Italians are currently holding out at Sidi Barrani, after doing an ill-advised advance a hundred kilometers or so into Egypt. More challenge for Rommel is for sure, but that will happen later on - we can expect an even faster fall of Libya to the British, followed by the coming of the Afrika Korps and subsequent stabilization, much like OTL because it's too important, for German interests, that it doesn't become open a staging ground for attacks on the European mainland.
 
Sure, The Yugoslav army will be resilient, but Italian pride should be enough to compensate. Mussolini was sufficiently jealous of Hitler's conquests and wanted similar success for Italy, and Mussolini was not one to play second-fiddle to a man who admired him, at not yet at least. I'm not sure Greece would provide aid for Yugoslavia. The Greek prime minister admired Mussolini and long as Italy respected its neutrality, Greece would remain out of the war, or at least not fight against the Axis. An Italian invasion of Yugoslavia may upset Hitler, but I'm sure he would be much more upset if he discovered plans of Mussolini's invasion of Greece before it took place. Yes, German intervention should quicken the war sufficiently, but in the end, the purpose of the war is to restore Italian pride, like when Mussolini invaded Ethiopia.

Greece can't be expected to side with Italy, and I think it won't even be acting "properly" neutral. The Metaxas-George II regime was actually pro-British, fully in line with traditional Greek policy; and not pro-Italian or pro-German in any particular way.
Metaxas may have vaguely admired Mussolini, but he did not allow it to influence his foreign policy...and even if Metaxas' ideas radically changed, he would simply be removed by King George, who held the ultimate power. So I imagine Greece will officially insist that it's neutral and loudly protest any insinuations to the contrary - while a steady flow of war materials and "volunteers" from Greece and Britain keeps streaming across the Greek-Yugoslav border.
 
Greece can't be expected to side with Italy, and I think it won't even be acting "properly" neutral. The Metaxas-George II regime was actually pro-British, fully in line with traditional Greek policy; and not pro-Italian or pro-German in any particular way.
Metaxas may have vaguely admired Mussolini, but he did not allow it to influence his foreign policy...and even if Metaxas' ideas radically changed, he would simply be removed by King George, who held the ultimate power. So I imagine Greece will officially insist that it's neutral and loudly protest any insinuations to the contrary - while a steady flow of war materials and "volunteers" from Greece and Britain keeps streaming across the Greek-Yugoslav border.
But there's no evidence that Greeks would be interested in aiding Yugoslavia or allow the British to cross through their territory.
 
But there's no evidence that Greeks would be interested in aiding Yugoslavia or allow the British to cross through their territory.

On the contrary - there's no reason to assume Greece will not be aiding Yugoslavia, as much as it can without actually declaring war on the Axis; considering the Greek leadership's consistently loyal attitude to Britain and the ties between Greece and Yugoslavia. Not to mention how seeing a hungry-looking Greater Albania (or, for that matter, Greater Bulgaria) established in their neighborhood is the one thing Greece will really not be interested in - even if the Greeks didn't consider British friendship so extremely important, they would have probably sent some covert aid to Yugoslavia for that reason alone.
 
On the contrary - there's no reason to assume Greece will not be aiding Yugoslavia, as much as it can without actually declaring war on the Axis; considering the Greek leadership's consistently loyal attitude to Britain and the ties between Greece and Yugoslavia. Not to mention how seeing a hungry-looking Greater Albania (or, for that matter, Greater Bulgaria) established in their neighborhood is the one thing Greece will really not be interested in - even if the Greeks didn't consider British friendship so extremely important, they would have probably sent some covert aid to Yugoslavia for that reason alone.
Fair enough.
 
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