What if Mussolini didn't join Hitler during WW2 And stayed Neutral?

I'll throw my two cents in from a position of not exactly being well read on interwar Italy:

It's not a very likely scenario to begin with. Italy resented the Entente for not granting her the land that had been promised to her, and Mussolini's imperialistic demeanour and definite antidemocratic tendencies would have made him a very unlikely Ally.
But nevertheless.

Italy would have probably been invaded by Germany. The Italian military, even backed by the Allies, would have probably not been able to face off against the Wehrmacht early in the war.
With basically every other country looking down on Italy military-wise, it's likely the Allies would not have bothered putting much effort into defending Italy anyway.
The French and British might have sent a token force, and maybe with their help Italy might have resisted occupation in the south.

Overall I'm picturing a situation similar to occupied France, with a German puppet-state in the north and a defeated, independent country in the south. This is also remarkably similar to what actually happened. Maybe it would have happened faster.
In OTL, anyway, Germany basically overtook northern Italy when Mussolini fell, while southern Italy defected to the Allies.
In the alternate timeline, this would probably only happen earlier.
 
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