What if: multiple Meiji-type events in East Asia

Thande

Donor
Okay, we're well used to the idea of a 'Meiji restoration' type event happening in different East Asian countries rather than Japan. It's code for 'modernisation, opening up, limited Westernisation, catching up to the West'. OTL, it happened in Japan but nowhere else to any serious extent - and Japan was the only local power that could not only compete in the Age of Imperialism but stand equal with the Europeans, and eventually push them out altogether (temporarily).

Now we've seen many timelines in which similar events happen in Korea or China or event Vietnam, whatever, in the 1860s but not in Japan. However, my question is this: what would happen if, say, both Japan and Korea were opened up and modernised at about the same time? Or both Japan and China? (Although that's a bit more obvious, as it's unlikely Japan could seriously compete with a well-organised and modernised China).

Do we see attempts at building local solidarity against the West, like a less propagandary version of the old East Asian Co-prosperity Sphere (and genuinely somewhat equal) or do these modernised Asian powers continue fighting each other, in wars which will inevitably become more bloody than OTL Japan's against a weak China and Korea? And how does this affect European trade, exploration and colonisation of the region?
 
I think that maybe Korea could manage this, and probably China. Thailand is an interesting possibility I stumbled over, but I don't think it could happen. Maybe a mercantile independent Vietnamese kingdom... Or a surviving Mughal rump state that pulls a Meiji. Or even Tibet... Or one of China's warlord states... Or an independent Ceylon... What about an earlier independent Manchuria? Or... I'm out of ideas.
 

Thande

Donor
I think that maybe Korea could manage this, and probably China. Thailand is an interesting possibility I stumbled over, but I don't think it could happen. Maybe a mercantile independent Vietnamese kingdom... Or a surviving Mughal rump state that pulls a Meiji. Or even Tibet... Or one of China's warlord states... Or an independent Ceylon... What about an earlier independent Manchuria? Or... I'm out of ideas.

Those are all good ideas, but the point is not to consider each of them in the abstract, but how would they all affect each other if several Eastern countries were Meiji'd. Usually TLs like this focus on just one and wank it, at the expense of its neighbours (like Japan in OTL). What if Japan and Korea modernise at the same time and end up as rivals of approximately similar power?
 
That's a good point. Out of the list, I think that the weaker ones will soon succumb to the stronger, until only the best are left. Personally I think China was too corrupt for a while to have a Meiji that doesn't take decades. Korea and Japan have my votes. A TL like that would be pretty interesting... Especially when the time comes for either of the Meiji'd states to push Europeans out of the area.
 
With a Meiji'd Korea does the US take interest and invest heavily in the new Korea to push US interests in the region through economic
and political subversion? I wonder how would the Europeans and Russia feel about a large and powerful Korea? I could the US that had just come out of its Civil War jumping into the new Asian market very quickly.
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
The problem is that, AFAIK, it's pretty much a consensus among historians that Japan's quick modernization was due mainly to the forces that built up during the Edo period and were a direct result of the Sakoku. To cite just two of the most telling effects Japan was, in 1854, relatively unaffected by Western exploitation and fairly wealthy to boot.

How, without some sort of equivalent isolation, are you going to prevent centuries of exploitation leading up to your "Meijis" in the 19thc? And then, what would China, Korea, or Thailand, by 1850, have to "Meiji" with?

Or are you suggesting that Qing China and Japan team up to take over Europe in the early 1600's? That might be interesting.

Also, wasn't the Taiping Rebellion an attempt by the Chinese to modernise much like the Japanese were doing?
 
Also, wasn't the Taiping Rebellion an attempt by the Chinese to modernise much like the Japanese were doing?

The Taiping rebellion was by someone that thought he was the son of God and he wanted to create his own kingdom in China. It was religous and was headed by someone with mental problems and the guy was really crazy and I mean really insane.
 
It would be too late in this TL. By the begining of the 20th century the Asian balance of power has shifted from China to Japan, which is historically unprecedented. Japan was on its way to dominate the region. China and Korea were far too weak at this point to change their destinies.

For China to have a "Meiji Reformation", you'll have to go back at least the late 1700s when the Qing Empire still had things under control. If the Qianlong Emperor had been more open minded with MacCartney's mission and reciprocated with a Chinese embassy to Britain, then perhaps witnessing the Napoleonic Wars first hand would convince the Chinese to modernize.
 
Hmm.

I think China does pose a problem; it's too big if the states are on an equal footing. But that wouldn't be the case; while the coastline might do as well as Japan, the inland areas won't for a long time.

Whether or not they cooperate depends onhow they Meji. Earlier adaption of Western technology, as in PB, may lead to continued great power struggles between the powers.

In fact, it's not clear that this wasn't what was gonna happen before the Sino-Japanese War.

I think they'd play out great power games, but there'd still be huge effects. Let's limit this to East Asia; Southeast Asia is still under European influence, although Thailand does an even better job staying independent.

I wonder if you see a more racist world. I mean, clearly technology is easy to acquire, so why didn't Africans do it?
 
China modernising is a over rated AH concept.
Its not that Japan was interested in modernising and China not, its just that China wasn't very good at it. It too brought in westnerers to help develop its industry, bought modern ships, etc...
I'd agree the size is a big point in its failure. Too large a area to modernise and too big a target for foreigners.
You'd need to balkanise China a bit then maybe some areas can do alright.

Korea's problem is its trapped between Russia and China (and later Japan). Perhaps if we see a British (or someone else, just British are most likely) vassalisation of the country then it may be able to develop more.
 
What if Korea gets left alone for a while?

Say China and Russia do actually come to blows in the early 19th century for some reason.

That gives Korea kind of an in-between moment for a couple decades, possibly being enough to bring amount a Meiji type event as they watch China/Russia clash north of them. At the same time the pressure in Japan hasn't really changed, but when they go through their modernization Korea is right there or just ahead of them.

Meanwhile China and Russia have spent a few decades in off an on war along their border, meaning they should have greater forces there. Japan is faced with a strategic problem: if they attack Korea they may weaken themselves enough that Russia can seize Korea from them. Likewise ATL China may be in somewhat better shape having risen to the challenge of engaging the Russians (or they could be falling apart faster).

Perhaps a Japanese-Korean alliance aimed at fighting off Russia & grabbing the good parts of China for both countries?

Or do Japan and Korea squabble until the Russians move in?
 
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