Moreover, how does the Ottoman Empire change its policy going forward? It's not just gonna sit around and passively have things done to it.
What if Muhammad Ali Pasha took the Great Powers terms of the 1840 Convention of London, with rule over southern Syria?
- Thread starter raharris1973
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raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Yep - it will try things to revive and rejuvenate itself.
However, just looked at from a one on one point of view, before factoring in European intervention, I don't see the Ottomans building up the military institutional acumen to claw back any contested territory from the Egyptian Khedival regime while Muhammad Ali are alive and running things. The Ottomans won't be able to match the Egyptians until at least Ibrahim's successor, who was inclined to undo reforms and cut spending on the military and industry.
What is there to do that it didn't try and have the will to do OTL? It's not like the Ottoman Empire sat around after the war. They had the Tanzimat Period, which only went so far and that was with access to Egypt's wealth and resources. But the Sublime Porte was well aware that they had nearly lost Egypt and had been pushed back in Europe for over a century, so it's not like their "victory" saw them resting on their laurels.
If the Ottomans lost Egypt, then who knows if it'll survive without European intervention in the next crisis. The Ottoman navy defected to Muhammad Ali during the war, after all, the Balkans were restive, and they'd be losing a fair bit of revenue from Egypt, especially from its cotton industry, which in turn would make expensive reforms to the military, navy, and infrastructure even less feasible (plus there's also the cost of putting down rebellions).
Stopping the Russians from getting the Straits could push Britain into Team Central (and Egypt into Team Entente).
And also will make it easier for Russia to annex parts of the empire. If Britain and France get so worried they might as well back Egypt as a good counter to the Russians, which the Egyptians will definitely use to their advantage.