Let’s say that things play out fairly similarly compared to the OTL until late 1931, by which point most of the damage has been done in the US and things have collapsed globally. Then in late 1931 things diverge with the US deciding to leave the Gold Standard sooner, and then avoiding the Federal Budget of 32-33 which involved both spending cuts and tax increases.
If America does this, I don’t think it is unreasonable to think that the economy begins to stabilize sooner and recovery to begin a year sooner from a slightly better point. Unemployment perhaps peaking in early 1932 at around 23% instead of peaking around late 1932 at 25%, and unemployment down to around 18% by the end of 1932. The next president (probably Roosevelt) doesn’t screw things up too badly and continues expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, enabling a full recovery by 35/36 with unemployment back below 5% by then. To add to this, the contractionary policies from 1937 are avoided and there only ends up being a minor recession at that point rather than a return to insane unemployment.
Perhaps this vague outline is unrealistic. Feel free to come up with a better way or criticize it. However, I would like the US to go through the latest quick turn around possible and keep the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs because I am looking the minimize the impact of a stronger American economy globally, to try and hold political events in the rest of the world similar to the OTL.
With an earlier recovery to the Depression and end of the Depression by the mid 30s, what kind of agenda is Roosevelt (or whoever you think will end up president) to follow? How much does American culture change? Are TVs likely to start making it in people’s homes by the late 30s/early 40? Is Four Terms a possibility for the POTUS? And how will an earlier American recovery effect the rest of the world? Will America be more or less eager to fight wars overseas?
If America does this, I don’t think it is unreasonable to think that the economy begins to stabilize sooner and recovery to begin a year sooner from a slightly better point. Unemployment perhaps peaking in early 1932 at around 23% instead of peaking around late 1932 at 25%, and unemployment down to around 18% by the end of 1932. The next president (probably Roosevelt) doesn’t screw things up too badly and continues expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, enabling a full recovery by 35/36 with unemployment back below 5% by then. To add to this, the contractionary policies from 1937 are avoided and there only ends up being a minor recession at that point rather than a return to insane unemployment.
Perhaps this vague outline is unrealistic. Feel free to come up with a better way or criticize it. However, I would like the US to go through the latest quick turn around possible and keep the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs because I am looking the minimize the impact of a stronger American economy globally, to try and hold political events in the rest of the world similar to the OTL.
With an earlier recovery to the Depression and end of the Depression by the mid 30s, what kind of agenda is Roosevelt (or whoever you think will end up president) to follow? How much does American culture change? Are TVs likely to start making it in people’s homes by the late 30s/early 40? Is Four Terms a possibility for the POTUS? And how will an earlier American recovery effect the rest of the world? Will America be more or less eager to fight wars overseas?