what if Mitsunari had won the battle of Sekigahara

How would Japan have been different if the Tokugawa clan had lost the battle. If the defectors had instead charged Ieyasu at the battle. What would have happened.

One possibility is that, say Mitsunari becomes shogun. After Mitsunari dies his three sons fight each other to become the next shogun. After years of fighting one finally prevails and becomes the shogun of Japan. One of the sons is executed by the one who becomes shogun, but the other escapes and organizes a rebellion to try and overthrow the new shogun. After more fighting the rebellious son is captured, he and any Daimyo loyal to him are executed and new daimyo are appointed to take their places. So one of the sons is now the clear ruler of Japan. He invades Korea, he might succeed or not.
 
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Japan maintains a more open stance to trade and probably does not shut its borders. The red seal ships will increase in number and "Dutch learning" will continue to pervade society in general. I can also see increasing JApanese influence in southeast asia from Burma to the Philippines and elsewhere, probably with earlier colonization of Sakhalin along with Hokkaido and perhaps even into the Aleutians. I doubt they discover Australia but it would not be implausible to have them set up a colony in part of it and/or one of the islands of New Zealand. In an ironic twist maybe they discover Hawaii as their trading ships were heading for Mexico shortly afterwards. These might break away with time and become their own governments. The quality of the government afterwards depends on the quality of his three sons, and at least one of them was semi-competent if memory serves. Look for another attempt to take on Korea, perhaps this time they succeed? Either way I think they take Korea and Taiwan by 1700 with influence in the Philippines, Mexico, Burma, Thailand, Indochina, and modern Indonesia/Malaysia. By 1800 I'm not sure where they stand but they are likely more open to the world and probably notably more modern in a military and economic sense.
 
Thats a interesting thought. That Japan might not have shut themselves off from the world the way they did afterwards. And attempting to take Korea again. What do you think would have happened to the Christians in Japan. Would they have still been persecuted or would Japan slowly become a more Christian nation.
 
Hideyoshi persecuted Christians, so there is a chance Mitsunari would continue. Although with more Dutch learning, they may be more willing to let Protestantism stay and replace Catholicism.
Whether Japan would remain open depends on his successor and how they percieve the accidental arrival of Father Antonio Gonzalez.
 
Western Japan has more trade and better ports, it slowly becomes more Christian with time. Most will be Protestant like the Dutch but there will be Catholics too, especially as Jesuits move into the country. Northern/Eastern Japan will remain poor and there is potential for civil war. I think that as time goes by this will be resolved but perhaps more peacefully, especially as the nation realizes that they are in the midst of land-hungry powers and they can watch China succumb. Japan will also likely try to gain a sphere there as well, probably in northern China. They might take the whole of Manchuria including the Amur River Valley along with the whole of the Bay of Okhosht (spelling?) and Kamchatka Peninsula, leaving no PAcific port for Russia. On the other hand perhaps there is some frozen dot that Japan does not colonize and that Russia can grab. As for what becomes of Alaska I am not sure, the British are likely to try to claim at least some of it but if Japan already has people in the area who knows how far their claims will go.
 
I think there was this exact topic a month or so ago. I'll try to find the link.


No. Only Hideyoshi had the madness to attempt that.

Following by what I said wouldn't the third son who became shogun have a really big sense of arrogance. Since he would have defeated the other two sons. He would probably think he could easily take Korea. But would likely get a nasty surprise.
 
If he becomes quite arrogant, there is a chance he might want to attack Korea. It also depends on how much support he gets. His fellow daimyo may be against it, since they lost so much in the previous invasion of Korea.
 
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