What if Mexico had won the Mexican American war instead of the United States
- Thread starter HistoryLovingCat
- Start date
Tallest Skil
Banned
They couldn't have without European intervention.
There would be border skirmishes for decades afterward, that's for sure.
There would be border skirmishes for decades afterward, that's for sure.
Well maybe an early enough POD making Mexico stronger then delaying the war all without scaring the US out of fighting them might be plausible, i haven't brushed up on my Mexican history recently.
However the United States did fight the British for similar reasons so maybe having Mexico strong enough to win isn't going to stop the war from coming.
but regardless, This may actually keep slavery alive for a bit longer or possibly avert the civil war. the various conflicts over free state/slave state will cease to be an internal problem and become an international one.
However the United States did fight the British for similar reasons so maybe having Mexico strong enough to win isn't going to stop the war from coming.
but regardless, This may actually keep slavery alive for a bit longer or possibly avert the civil war. the various conflicts over free state/slave state will cease to be an internal problem and become an international one.
In OTL, General Winfield Scott and his staff joined Commodore David Conner on a ship to observe Vera Cruz. As one of those staff officers, George Meade, recorded, they drew fire from the Mexican Fort of San Juan de Ulua. Had those shots hit, Scott and Conner, leaders of the Army and Navy forces present would probably died. So would all of Scott’s general officers and several members of Scott’s staff – Meade, Robert E Lee, Joseph Johnston, and PGT Beauregard. With this decapitation of US forces, at the very least the Vera Cruz landings could have been delayed and they might not have made it out of the lowlands before fever season crippled the army. Even if they had, without Scott’s abilities as leader and Lee’s abilities scouting, the US forces could very well have lost the campaign.
Delta Force
Banned
It would also kill off an entire generation of American senior officers. You just listed off a who's who of major ACW officers, so the ACW could end up even more drawn out as it would be fought by amateurs.
There are perhaps two reasons why we succeeded:
Santa Ana was in charge and was despised by many Mexicans. The major city of Puebla did not much up much of a fight since they were anti-Santa Ana. Had they fought as they did against France in 1863, Cinco de May, we might have been stalled long enough to have a major supply problem, particularly with excellent Mexican irregular cavalry on our lines of supply.
Santa Ana was in charge at Monterey and Cerro Gordo. Either should have been Mexican victories but Santa Ana was basically completely inept as a general but apparently quite good as a politician.
The Texas Revolt would be but a footnote in Mexican history as one of half a dozen or so regional revolts against Mexico in the 1830s. But once again Santa Ana snatched absolute defeat from absolute victory at San Jacinto. He had very competant generals and commanders at each of his prominant defeat but he did not want them getting credit instead of himself.
Santa Ana was in charge and was despised by many Mexicans. The major city of Puebla did not much up much of a fight since they were anti-Santa Ana. Had they fought as they did against France in 1863, Cinco de May, we might have been stalled long enough to have a major supply problem, particularly with excellent Mexican irregular cavalry on our lines of supply.
Santa Ana was in charge at Monterey and Cerro Gordo. Either should have been Mexican victories but Santa Ana was basically completely inept as a general but apparently quite good as a politician.
The Texas Revolt would be but a footnote in Mexican history as one of half a dozen or so regional revolts against Mexico in the 1830s. But once again Santa Ana snatched absolute defeat from absolute victory at San Jacinto. He had very competant generals and commanders at each of his prominant defeat but he did not want them getting credit instead of himself.
Snake Featherston
Banned
This is a very difficult POD to achieve, as Mexico's armies invariably lost all the battles, even when reasonable strategic factors should have favored them. Buena Vista is the classic example of a battle Mexico should have won. Then there's the factor of Santa Anna.....
Why hasnt anyone ever used it? It seems like an absolutely perfect beginning for an ameriscrew.
Grimbald
Monthly Donor
This war was going to last until the US won. Mexican victories could have delayed the outcome but not changed it.
Could Mexican victories softened the peace? Maybe, but to do so the victories would have to be in California. Winning on Mexican soil does not change the US occupation of California and Arizona. Perhaps the dollars "paid" Mexico could have been increased.
Mexico had zero ability to project power.
Could Mexican victories softened the peace? Maybe, but to do so the victories would have to be in California. Winning on Mexican soil does not change the US occupation of California and Arizona. Perhaps the dollars "paid" Mexico could have been increased.
Mexico had zero ability to project power.
American settlers would simply ignore the borders and stream on into California. Mexico would have a big problem with illegial Anglo immigrants. Kind of poetic if you ask me.
Actually, Europe was betting the Mexicans would win since they had a much larger standing army at the time. Back then, the US military had a small and battle-hardened regular army (decades of fighting Indians will do that to you) supported by the militias of the States. If you recall the War of 1812, and how the militia behaved during it, it's no wonder the British didn't think the USA could pull it off.
Actually, Europe was betting the Mexicans would win since they had a much larger standing army at the time. Back then, the US military had a small and battle-hardened regular army (decades of fighting Indians will do that to you) supported by the militias of the States. If you recall the War of 1812, and how the militia behaved during it, it's no wonder the British didn't think the USA could pull it off.
Snake Featherston
Banned
Because it would mean having to do a lot of research into the US Army of the time in terms of the new leaders and would be a very involved timeline focusing on a period of US history which is a relative historical gap. As well as doing intensive research into the Antebellum US military and how it practically operated.
Well, irregardless of how it happened, the American defeat would be a rebuttal of the Manifest Destiny; And maybe they'll try again ten years later. An American Civil War will surely be hastened due to the fact the war goals were never achieved, and the slavers will attempt to expand it into the remaining territories.
Mexico, if it managed to unite against the invaders, will disunite again on petty differences until the equivalent of ATL's Reforma rolls in. I think the Conservadores might win this time around, but Mexico would be severely weakened.
Another possibility would be if the U.S. annexes all of Mexico. Yes, Mexico lost the war, but it will surely win the peace in the long run, with the insane amount of Mexican and Indigenous uprisings the US will have on its hands. Remember that Mexico's modern northwestern states were inhabited by a lot of indigenous warlike tribes that didn't liked at all Porfirio Díaz when he seized their lands. Though, in this case, both Mexico and the U.S. will screw themselves so badly that both countries will be shattered to hell and back.
Anyway, I've been thinking on making a Collaborative TL of this.
Mexico, if it managed to unite against the invaders, will disunite again on petty differences until the equivalent of ATL's Reforma rolls in. I think the Conservadores might win this time around, but Mexico would be severely weakened.
Another possibility would be if the U.S. annexes all of Mexico. Yes, Mexico lost the war, but it will surely win the peace in the long run, with the insane amount of Mexican and Indigenous uprisings the US will have on its hands. Remember that Mexico's modern northwestern states were inhabited by a lot of indigenous warlike tribes that didn't liked at all Porfirio Díaz when he seized their lands. Though, in this case, both Mexico and the U.S. will screw themselves so badly that both countries will be shattered to hell and back.
Anyway, I've been thinking on making a Collaborative TL of this.
Mexico's defeat was not totally inevitable in that war. In some ways, it was more developed and powerful than the United States.
Grey Wolf
Donor
The US isn't going to carry on regardless until it wins:
1) Taylor basically sat still for a long time, more interested in his political correspondence with Washington than in actually pursuing the war
2) US army units were called up for a set period and then expected to go home again
3) Without the landing at Vera Cruz it is going to be up to Taylor to push from the North
As a note, Mexico probably CANNOT do anything about the Northernmost territories where Kearny, the Mormons etc are all in play, and Mexican or pro-Mexican forces are restricted to a tiny garrison in California
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
1) Taylor basically sat still for a long time, more interested in his political correspondence with Washington than in actually pursuing the war
2) US army units were called up for a set period and then expected to go home again
3) Without the landing at Vera Cruz it is going to be up to Taylor to push from the North
As a note, Mexico probably CANNOT do anything about the Northernmost territories where Kearny, the Mormons etc are all in play, and Mexican or pro-Mexican forces are restricted to a tiny garrison in California
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Find a reason to keep the US army on the coast longer or have the Mexicans try to hold them there. The Yellowjack will do the rest of the work for you in defeating the Americans.
Scott desperately wanted to get away from the coast before the sickly season wiped out his army.
Scott desperately wanted to get away from the coast before the sickly season wiped out his army.
Which is one of the reasons Europeans expected Mexico to win. Just the delay from losing US top command will multiply US disease casualties. Without Scott's leadership and Lee's scouting, US forces probably don't make it to Mexico City before withdrawing due to casualties. The US still gets the Mexican Territory it did in OTL, since the US is already sitting on it, but there's no treaty where the US purchases northern Mexico.