What if maurikios doesnt get overthrown ?

The late roman emperor Maurikios defended the empire against the slavs and the persians and was able to reconquer much of the balkans but was overthrown by phokas, a general who turned out to be a tyrant who started a new war against the persians. So i wanted to ask what would happen if Maurikios doesnt get overthrown?
 

Philip

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So i wanted to ask what would happen if Maurikios doesnt get overthrown?

Are you supposing that he fixes the problems that led to his deposition? Unless he gets the finances turned around and earns the respect of the army, a revolt is inevitable. If he does manage to accomplish this, he likely dies within a couple of years.

After that, the empire collapses into civil war as his sons cannot govern together. Either the Sassanians sweep over the East, or someone like Heraclius straightens things out.
 
Are you supposing that he fixes the problems that led to his deposition? Unless he gets the finances turned around and earns the respect of the army, a revolt is inevitable. If he does manage to accomplish this, he likely dies within a couple of years.

After that, the empire collapses into civil war as his sons cannot govern together. Either the Sassanians sweep over the East, or someone like Heraclius straightens things out.
But what would happen after that? As the caliphate hasnt formed yet
 
Assuming he can somehow manage to balance the non-existent budget and still keep the military happy?

Honestly, things turn out better for the empire. It splits into east and west upon his death (iirc, Maurice's original idea of splitting the empire into fiefdoms for all of his sons seems to have petered out), because on some level I think Maurice knew the eastern empire could not hope to hold onto the west. Africa was fading in the face of Berber expansion and was nominally independant anyway, and Italy was a weight tied to the empire's leg. Having someone keep tabs on the west/leaving it to its demise while the eastern empire focused on the Sassanians and Slavs was probably the correct option.

As for the Sassanid war; doesn't happen. Despite everyone assuming he was a warmonger, Khosrau seems to have been content with the current state of affairs. Did he want Armenia back? Sure, who wouldn't, but I doubt he would have gone to war over it with Theodosius in charge. In fact, having a friendly junior emperor in charge of Iran's rival would probably be a good thing. Note that Khosrau did not go to war until he had a pretender to put on the throne, and his aims didn't seem to shift into Total War-style conquest until the Roman lines collapsed.

That's not to say you won't have more border wars with the Sassanid Empire down the line, but it'll be just that: more endless border war. The unique circumstances that led to the knock-down brawl in OTL just won't be there.

...For now, at least.
 
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The late roman emperor Maurikios defended the empire against the slavs and the persians and was able to reconquer much of the balkans but was overthrown by phokas, a general who turned out to be a tyrant who started a new war against the persians. So i wanted to ask what would happen if Maurikios doesnt get overthrown?

If he doesn’t die he probably lives 5-10 more years, enough to stabilize the Balkans and rebuild fortifications. He could also start preparing an expedition against the Lombards in southern Italy since he now has secured all the other frontiers. More probably he leaves this task upon his successor.

I don’t think his death would mean the start of a new war against Persia: sure peace wouldn’t last forever but Cosroe has neither the casus belli nor the support of Maurice’s loyalist. Without the civil war between Phokas and Narses/Heraclius plaguing the empire during the Persian conflict, an eventual war between the two empires (assuming we still have this war) would resemble the border conflicts of the VI century, just with Armenia in the hands of Constantinople.

About his successor, I don’t know much about his Theodosius's personality. Could be either an alt-Heraclius or a new “Arcadius”. It’s also possible to see a new division of the empire after Maurice’s death: in this case both Italy and Spain would benefit as a Western Emperor could act to foreign aggressions more quickly and more freely than the Eastern Emperor or the Exarch. A Western Emperor would also get access to the resources of Africa and the Islands (Sardinia and Corsica were subjected to Carthage while Sicily was subjected to Constantinople) while the Exarch of Italy only had access to the resources coming from the small strips of land scattered around Italy. This could also help against local usurpation since the supreme authority of state is not somewhere in Asia/Armenia. The result of this could be the successful defense of Spain and possibly the recovery of land in Southern Italy. In the long run, as long as Africa support the imperial effort in Italy without the need to worry about eastern threats, I could see the reestablishment to Justinian’s borders.
 
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