What if Mao died in the middle of the Cultural Revolution?

Mao Zedong started the Cultural Revolution to overturn the leadership and allow himself to regain power in the country. Chaos spread throughout the country and Red Guard groups formed which overthrew local authority. However, Mao himself soon became alarmed by how chaotic the country was and eventually the Red Guards were disbanded.

But what if Mao never got the chance to bring the Cultural Revolution back under control? What if Mao was assassinated at the end of 1967? Who would take control of China and how will they deal with the aftermath?
 

Driftless

Donor
Jiang Qing throws more fuel on the Cultural Revolution fires? That segment of China's history got very wild and paralleled the excesses of the worst of the French Revolution.
 

samcster94

Banned
Jiang Qing throws more fuel on the Cultural Revolution fires? That segment of China's history got very wild and paralleled the excesses of the worst of the French Revolution.
It was like "Night of the Long Knives" if it lasted for a decade, where he and the top bosses was ordering political factions within Maoism to kill each other.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Jiang Qing throws more fuel on the Cultural Revolution fires? That segment of China's history got very wild and paralleled the excesses of the worst of the French Revolution.
Without Mao Jiang is pretty powerless, without mao she has no support from the army or the party apparatus

Lin Biao was at the time designated successor and had control over the army: so he was most likely the person taking over

One big change is that Lin was pro-Soviet whereas Mao was pragmatic enough to make an alliance with Nixon, maybe if Lin stayed in power Brezhnev would have gone to China instead
 
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Without Mao Jiang is pretty powerless, without mao she has no support from the army or the party apparatus

Lin Biao was at the time designated successor and had control over the army: so he was most likely the person taking over

One big change is that Lin was pro-Soviet whereas Mao was pragmatic enough to make an alliance with Nixon, maybe if Lin stayed in power Brezhnev would have gone to China instead

Wasn't 1967 before Lin Biao was made the designated successor? Also, I heard that the PLA had been somewhat controlled by the Red Guards.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Wasn't 1967 before Lin Biao was made the designated successor? Also, I heard that the PLA had been somewhat controlled by the Red Guards.
Lin had being successor since 1966

The PLA literally went out and shot the red guards once Mao gave them the all ahead in 1967-68. The suppression of the Red Guards by the PLA was probably one of the most brutal episodes of the cultural revolution.
 
Lin had being successor since 1966

The PLA literally went out and shot the red guards once Mao gave them the all ahead in 1967-68. The suppression of the Red Guards by the PLA was probably one of the most brutal episodes of the cultural revolution.

Well, that was after Mao had the Red Guards disbanded. With Mao dead before the order was given there would be a lot more Red Guards around. Would the PLA but able to suppress all of the rebellions going on around the country? And would all of the PLA be loyal to Lin?
 

RousseauX

Donor
Well, that was after Mao had the Red Guards disbanded. With Mao dead before the order was given there would be a lot more Red Guards around. Would the PLA but able to suppress all of the rebellions going on around the country?
Yes, the PLA to a large extent -hated- the red guards, because among other things the red guards tended to be more privileged than the average PLA soldier who came from rural backgrounds.

The red guards were not some elite revolutionary force but teenagers in middle and high school. It's as if this is the US and the president told high schoolers to form gangs and attack corporate offices. They had leeway to commit crimes and engage in public disorder because Mao gave them permission to do so and ordered law enforcement and the army to stand aside or even help them between 1966-67. Once someone gave the order for them to be suppressed they will be suppressed.

And would all of the PLA be loyal to Lin?
At this point yes, because Mao had already purged the PLA of people who were a potential opposition to Lin from within the army
 
What would a Lin Biao China look like?
Quite likely, it would as some have noted been more closely tied to Brezhnev and his stagnating USSR.

As Lin was three years younger than Deng Xiaoping, were he not assassinated he would likely have retained power for a substantial period, and without Deng we would likely have seen China remain strongly Communist. Even if Lin judged that economic reforms were needed because of China’s poverty and the ongoing migration to Hong Kong, the country would have been much more closed to outsiders for much longer, with entry likely to be restricted to those whose services in development were essential or those doing business with the country.

It is – perhaps remotely – plausible that with an alliance with China the USSR would have tried a different reform policy that could have seen the CPSU hold onto power for longer, but it stands more plausible that if Lin was more cautious than Deng in economic reform and prevented any social reforms, that Communism might have collapsed in China when it did in the USSR. That opens a whole new set of baskets, most especially China reuniting with Taiwan.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Quite likely, it would as some have noted been more closely tied to Brezhnev and his stagnating USSR.

As Lin was three years younger than Deng Xiaoping, were he not assassinated he would likely have retained power for a substantial period, and without Deng we would likely have seen China remain strongly Communist. Even if Lin judged that economic reforms were needed because of China’s poverty and the ongoing migration to Hong Kong, the country would have been much more closed to outsiders for much longer, with entry likely to be restricted to those whose services in development were essential or those doing business with the country.

It is – perhaps remotely – plausible that with an alliance with China the USSR would have tried a different reform policy that could have seen the CPSU hold onto power for longer, but it stands more plausible that if Lin was more cautious than Deng in economic reform and prevented any social reforms, that Communism might have collapsed in China when it did in the USSR. That opens a whole new set of baskets, most especially China reuniting with Taiwan.
Lin was not healthy compared to Deng though, he had tuberculosis by the 60s. It's quite possible his "natural death" time frame would have being same similar to Mao's
 
What about his prince, spoiled son? Keng Shang didn’t exactly want the opening to the USA, but he couldn’t stand chaos.
 
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