What if Louis XVI was Louis XV's only grandson?

This idea came to me during an earlier discussion on what would have happened had Louis XV died in infancy. Let's say Louis XV is born, and his life essentially takes the path that it did. The point of divergence is that OTL Louis XVIII and Charles X are either never born or they are born female. OTL Louis XVI is the only surviving grandson of Louis XV. How is French history effected by the absence of Louis XVIII and Charles X?
 
This idea came to me during an earlier discussion on what would have happened had Louis XV died in infancy. Let's say Louis XV is born, and his life essentially takes the path that it did. The point of divergence is that OTL Louis XVIII and Charles X are either never born or they are born female. OTL Louis XVI is the only surviving grandson of Louis XV. How is French history effected by the absence of Louis XVIII and Charles X?

Cheerleaders for the exiled Bourbons during the Napoleonic period are not therefore existing

Succession resolves to the Orleans, with the Conde in reserve

It could be messy, especially due to Philippe Egalite and the coalition having to accept him as the rightful king

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I thought Phillipe Egalite died before Louis XVII, and presuming minimal butterflies, wouldn't it be Phillipe's son who was the recognized heir? That is OTL Louis Phillipe I King of the French? I may have the dates slightly wrong, and butterflies can do all sorts of strange things. What I wonder is how the legitimist vs. Orleanist debate would affect the restoration. Although, I'd presume that the issue of who inherits the French throne will be decided by the anti Napoleonic alliance, and that Britain will be no more willing to allow the Pyrenees to disappear than it had been decades earlier, so the ultralegitimist wish that Charles IV of Spain be given the French throne is probably very unlikely. But my suspicion is that there would be divisions within loyalist circles during the Napoleonic period. Presuming that Napoleon doesn't somehow alter his behavior to the extent his fall is prevented, if I have the dates right Napoleon's enemies would probably seek to place Louis Phillipe on the throne, meaning that the July Monarchy begins 15 years earlier than in OTL. I could have a few things wrong here, and butterflies means there's a chance none of this would happen. After all, perhaps Louis XVII isn't born either, in which case Phillipe Egalite takes the throne at least nominally the moment Louis XVI dies.
 
Assuming events go OTL, with Louis XVI being Louis XV's only grandson, then after the death of Louis XVII, the main Bourbon branch is extinct. There are two possible candidates :

-Charles IV of Spain. He is a direct descendant of Louis XIV and the eldest of the Spanish Branch. Utrecht is in his way however, and he probably appears Spanish to the French, thus foreigner. Despite the fact he is the eldest of the Capetians, I don't think he will be the heir of Louis XVII, although he could try to claim the title (given his character, I suspect Charles IV of Spain could be stupid enough to do so...)

-Louis-Philippe d'Orléans, son of Philippe Egalité. OTL, Louis XVII died in 1795 and Philippe Egalité had been beheaded shortly before I think. Louis Philippe is thus the eldest of the Orléans Branch and the first prince of Blood. What he has against him would be the fact he is the son of a Regicide, but despite that dark mark, both Salic Law and Utrecht have him as the heir to the Throne.

Since Charles IV of Spain's candidacy appears very weak and improbable, all I can come up with is Louis Philippe, Duke of Orléans, being declared King of France and Navarre (or King of the French) as Louis XVIII, Philippe VII of Louis Philippe I in 1795 by the French Royalists.
Though Louis Philippe was a revolutionnary at the start, I don't think the French Revolutionnaries would install him as King. Napoleon will also not recognise him as King of France probably. He would thus not become King starting 1814 and Napoleon's fall. Given Louis Philippe's ideas, there might be no Hundread Days.
 
Well, I'm thinking that Britain and France's other enemies would have a kind of veto power over who inherits the French throne, and for that reason there's little chance that the Pyrenees disappear however much the King of Spain considers himself the rightful King of France.
 
Well, I'm thinking that Britain and France's other enemies would have a kind of veto power over who inherits the French throne, and for that reason there's little chance that the Pyrenees disappear however much the King of Spain considers himself the rightful King of France.

It's worth bearing in mind that France managed to take on pretty much everyone else during the Revolution though, being the first country to introduce mass conscription. If the power-players in France get behind the King of Spain and figure out a levee en masse, they might be able to pull it off.
 
Assuming events go OTL, with Louis XVI being Louis XV's only grandson, then after the death of Louis XVII, the main Bourbon branch is extinct. There are two possible candidates :

-Charles IV of Spain. He is a direct descendant of Louis XIV and the eldest of the Spanish Branch. Utrecht is in his way however, and he probably appears Spanish to the French, thus foreigner. Despite the fact he is the eldest of the Capetians, I don't think he will be the heir of Louis XVII, although he could try to claim the title (given his character, I suspect Charles IV of Spain could be stupid enough to do so...)

-Louis-Philippe d'Orléans, son of Philippe Egalité. OTL, Louis XVII died in 1795 and Philippe Egalité had been beheaded shortly before I think. Louis Philippe is thus the eldest of the Orléans Branch and the first prince of Blood. What he has against him would be the fact he is the son of a Regicide, but despite that dark mark, both Salic Law and Utrecht have him as the heir to the Throne.

Since Charles IV of Spain's candidacy appears very weak and improbable, all I can come up with is Louis Philippe, Duke of Orléans, being declared King of France and Navarre (or King of the French) as Louis XVIII, Philippe VII of Louis Philippe I in 1795 by the French Royalists.
Though Louis Philippe was a revolutionnary at the start, I don't think the French Revolutionnaries would install him as King. Napoleon will also not recognise him as King of France probably. He would thus not become King starting 1814 and Napoleon's fall. Given Louis Philippe's ideas, there might be no Hundread Days.

I'm a bit confused, if Louis Phillipe doesn't take the throne after Napoleon's first exile, when does he take the throne? Is the French monarchy restored at all under your scenario?
 
Glass Onion said:
I'm a bit confused, if Louis Phillipe doesn't take the throne after Napoleon's first exile, when does he take the throne? Is the French monarchy restored at all under your scenario?

The problem lies more with the fact I didn't re-read my message after I wrote it... --"

He would thus not become King starting 1814 and Napoleon's fall.
What I meant to say was : "He would thus not become King until 1814 and Napoleon's fall" or "Louis-Philippe would thus reign starting 1814 and Napoleon's fall".

I was thus implying Louis Philippe would rule France only after the end of the French Revolutionnary Wars and Napoleonic Wars as he is the most likely candidate to the French throne.
 
Let's make things slightly more interesting. Let's say Charles IV is dumb enough to claim the French throne when Louis XVII dies. Again, assuming minimal butterflies, how does Charles IV telling everyone who would listen that he's King of France impact Napoleon's war in Spain? How would Napoleon treat Charles presuming he still invades Spain and topples him from the Spanish throne? Or would Napoleon treat the would be King of France any differently than he did historically?
 
An earlier Restauration

Louis Philippe could also become a constitutional monarch during the Directorate before the political rise of Napoleon (probably in 1796 - 1797). This could butterfly away the rule of Napoleon and thus the horrible losses of the Napoleonic wars and also the rise of nationalism (against Napoleons dominance) in central Europe in the first decades of the 19th century and its negative effects in the later 19th and 20th century. Since Louis Philippe would be the legitimate heir, the anti-french coalition would soon fall apart, with Britain supportung Louis Philippes claim and the more conservative monarchs on the continent the claim of the Spanish Bourbons.
 
VictorLaszlo said:
Louis Philippe could also become a constitutional monarch during the Directorate before the political rise of Napoleon (probably in 1796 - 1797). This could butterfly away the rule of Napoleon and thus the horrible losses of the Napoleonic wars and also the rise of nationalism (against Napoleons dominance) in central Europe in the first decades of the 19th century and its negative effects in the later 19th and 20th century. Since Louis Philippe would be the legitimate heir, the anti-french coalition would soon fall apart, with Britain supportung Louis Philippes claim and the more conservative monarchs on the continent the claim of the Spanish Bourbons.

I'm not sure the Directors would be ready to restore the French Monarchy, even with Louis Philippe as the legitimate King. OTL, they thwarted two attempts of Monarchist Restoration by annuling elections the Royalist had won or were going to won in 1795 and 1796.
Yet, seeing how corrupt the Directors were, I can't say it's not impossible...
 
Well, considering that an early absence of Louis XVIII and Charles X might cause too many butterflies among the Bourbon family, I'll sugest a different POD, and make them the sons of Charles die during the exile (let's assume they get some disease as happened in 1712). Now, assuming that everything until 1814 goes more or less like IOTL, considering the mess that would be the French succession going back to the Spanish Bourbons or the Orleans, could the Great Powers accept a different arrangement? I thought about three possibilities:

a) The daughter of Louis XVI, Marie Therese, IOTL married Louis Antoine, Duke of Angoulême, son of Charles X and a heir to the French throne. Could after all the mess of Revolution and Napoleonic Rule just skip the Salic Law and accept the ITTL husband of Marie Therese as the new king, as a way of "revenge" the death of Louis XVI?

b) Considering that there is no clear Capetian successor, could the Habsburgs accept Napoleon II as the successor of his father, considering that his mother was a Habsburg herself?

c) Would it be possible that the Great Powers accept the formation of a French Parliament that would choose through an election the new king and the new dynasty of France?
 
its also possible that on the advice of his government, |French insistence and the allies...Britain in particular, that Charles IV may be persuaded to abdicate his rights in France to a one of his sons, not in immediate line of ascension to the throne of Spain....Don Carlos would more than be happy to fill those shoes I would think. Those claims would most importantly be solidified if he were married to an alt tl descendant of the female versions of Louis Stanislas and Charles.

All Spain knows and most importantly his ministers know that Europe does not want the Pyrenees to disappear. There are also diplomatic repercussions....Spain may remain firmly in the Anti French coalitions as well or at least neutral and not allied to Imperial France.
 
Louis Philippe could also become a constitutional monarch during the Directorate before the political rise of Napoleon (probably in 1796 - 1797). This could butterfly away the rule of Napoleon and thus the horrible losses of the Napoleonic wars and also the rise of nationalism (against Napoleons dominance) in central Europe in the first decades of the 19th century and its negative effects in the later 19th and 20th century. Since Louis Philippe would be the legitimate heir, the anti-french coalition would soon fall apart, with Britain supportung Louis Philippes claim and the more conservative monarchs on the continent the claim of the Spanish Bourbons.

This is a possibility, and I would say probably the only eventuality that would result in him gaining the throne this early.

I would stand by my assertion that the solution employed during the Spanish succession War would almost certainly be adopted once again with Charles abdicating his rights to a junior son. Indeed, if there are no male siblings to Louis XVi, the Spanish Bourbons would no doubt have planned for just this eventuality, the extinction of the French line. One would think that a female analog of Louis Stanislas would be a preferable mate for Charles IV instead of the witch from Parma, to solidify the claim.
 
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Well, considering that an early absence of Louis XVIII and Charles X might cause too many butterflies among the Bourbon family, I'll sugest a different POD, and make them the sons of Charles die during the exile (let's assume they get some disease as happened in 1712). Now, assuming that everything until 1814 goes more or less like IOTL, considering the mess that would be the French succession going back to the Spanish Bourbons or the Orleans, could the Great Powers accept a different arrangement? I thought about three possibilities:

a) The daughter of Louis XVI, Marie Therese, IOTL married Louis Antoine, Duke of Angoulême, son of Charles X and a heir to the French throne. Could after all the mess of Revolution and Napoleonic Rule just skip the Salic Law and accept the ITTL husband of Marie Therese as the new king, as a way of "revenge" the death of Louis XVI?

b) Considering that there is no clear Capetian successor, could the Habsburgs accept Napoleon II as the successor of his father, considering that his mother was a Habsburg herself?

c) Would it be possible that the Great Powers accept the formation of a French Parliament that would choose through an election the new king and the new dynasty of France?

doesn't this just leaves things as \ OTL just a move to the Orleans only when Charles is overthrown... with the restoration, if you have Louis Xvii available he will return to the throne and be succeeded by Charles even if he has no heirs, though if his own son's are dead, one would think he would try to find some...
 
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