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alternatehistory.com
In OTL, Lincoln won New York with a margin of 6-7% of the popular vote. What if Douglas had managed to pull off a surprise victory? This would prevent any one canidate from reaching the required 152 Electoral Votes to win the election. The exact break down would be:
Even if the Democrats agree on one canidate and all of the third parties back then, they still would not be able to over ride the Republican majority. However, would this have served to unite or further divide the Democratic Party? Would the rebellion still start the same way? Could this alienate the border states?
I got all of my figures from this EC History site and Wikipedia's 36th Congress.