What if Lincoln lost New York

[Yelnoc]

In OTL, Lincoln won New York with a margin of 6-7% of the popular vote. What if Douglas had managed to pull off a surprise victory? This would prevent any one canidate from reaching the required 152 Electoral Votes to win the election. The exact break down would be:

Lincoln: 148
Breckinridge: 72
Douglas: 44
Bell: 39

This means that the election would go to the House. The breakdown of the House was:

Republican: 121
Democrat: 92
American: 5
Anti-Lecompton Democrat: 8
Independant Democratic: 7

Even if the Democrats agree on one canidate and all of the third parties back then, they still would not be able to over ride the Republican majority. However, would this have served to unite or further divide the Democratic Party? Would the rebellion still start the same way? Could this alienate the border states?

I got all of my figures from this EC History site and Wikipedia's 36th Congress.

 

[NKVD]

It depends on the composition of each state delegation. Each state gets one vote, when the election gets to the House, and each state delegation has to decide who they're going to vote for. That would be interesting, considering how California and Oregon have Democratic Congressional delegations. Five of the nine representatives from Lincoln's home state of Illinois are Democratic. It would get fairly ugly. Also, Bell is out, because the House election only includes the top three candidates.

 

[Yelnoc]

It depends on the composition of each state delegation. When an election goes to the House, each state gets one vote. In addition, only the top three would be candidates in the House vote - that's Lincoln, Breckinridge, and Douglas.

Thanks, I didn't know that.

That means that if each delegation votes for the Canidate its constitutients elected, Lincoln would have 17 votes, Breckinridge 13 (assuming Bell's three states went to him) and Douglas 2. There are a few other dynamics to consider. 1) Will Douglas step down to Breckinridge and 2) Will the state electors exactly represent their states? Lincoln only won California from Douglas by .5% of the popular vote, meaning that if the wrong people get chosen Douglas could get that state. If Douglas did bow to Breckinridge (and California went to Breckinridge), that would give him 16 votes to Lincoln's 17.

Regardless of what California does, if Douglas acedes to Breckinridge, could that heal the party split and prevent the south from seceding (at least temporarily) from the Union?

Going with the California question, if the Democrats get California and another state then they could surpass Lincoln by one vote. Lincoln won Illinois by 3.5%, is it possible that the same scenario could happen that happened in California? Or both of those delegations were bribe to vote Democrat?

 

[NKVD]

Thanks, I didn't know that.

That means that if each delegation votes for the Canidate its constitutients elected, Lincoln would have 17 votes, Breckinridge 13 (assuming Bell's three states went to him) and Douglas 2. There are a few other dynamics to consider. 1) Will Douglas step down to Breckinridge and 2) Will the state electors exactly represent their states? Lincoln only won California from Douglas by .5% of the popular vote, meaning that if the wrong people get chosen Douglas could get that state. If Douglas did bow to Breckinridge (and California went to Breckinridge), that would give him 16 votes to Lincoln's 17.

Regardless of what California does, if Douglas acedes to Breckinridge, could that heal the party split and prevent the south from seceding (at least temporarily) from the Union?

Going with the California question, if the Democrats get California and another state then they could surpass Lincoln by one vote. Lincoln won Illinois by 3.5%, is it possible that the same scenario could happen that happened in California? Or both of those delegations were bribe to vote Democrat?

Regardless of whether or not the Democrats can fall behind one candidate, the winner of the House vote needs a two-thirds majority. Several state delegations would have to flip one way or the other, which actually seems very unlikely.

 

[hzn5pk]

Regardless of whether or not the Democrats can fall behind one candidate, the winner of the House vote needs a two-thirds majority. Several state delegations would have to flip one way or the other, which actually seems very unlikely.

Actually, if the vote goes to the House a mojority of the present number of US state blocs is needed. In 1860, there are 33 states, so the winning candidate needs to win at a minimum 17 of the state blocs in the HoR.

The House vote would occur in early Jauary, Jan 8 I believe. This vote would occur after the official counting of the electoral college votes by a joint session of Congress.

If Lincoln was not a clear cut victor in November would SC secede on Dec 20, 1860? All other states seceded after the official counting of the electoral college by Congress on Jan 8. Miss, AL, and Fl were within days of Lincoln becoming the official President elect. Does SC still secede on Dec 20 ITTL?

Another wrinkle for the House vote for presidet is that a minimum 2/3 of the state blocs are needed to conduct the vote in the House. Although highly unlikely, could the South manage a walk out by 12 of the state blocs therefore hanging the election of the next president? What would happen if by the Constitution rules, the next president was not chosen by either the Electoral College or by the House of Reps?

 

[Yelnoc]

Actually, if the vote goes to the House a mojority of the present number of US state blocs is needed. In 1860, there are 33 states, so the winning candidate needs to win at a minimum 17 of the state blocs in the HoR.

The House vote would occur in early Jauary, Jan 8 I believe. This vote would occur after the official counting of the electoral college votes by a joint session of Congress.

If Lincoln was not a clear cut victor in November would SC secede on Dec 20, 1860? All other states seceded after the official counting of the electoral college by Congress on Jan 8. Miss, AL, and Fl were within days of Lincoln becoming the official President elect. Does SC still secede on Dec 20 ITTL?

Another wrinkle for the House vote for presidet is that a minimum 2/3 of the state blocs are needed to conduct the vote in the House. Although highly unlikely, could the South manage a walk out by 12 of the state blocs therefore hanging the election of the next president? What would happen if by the Constitution rules, the next president was not chosen by either the Electoral College or by the House of Reps?

Well, Lincoln had 17 states even with the loss of New York so assuming they all remain loyal he's got the presidency.

You're right, South Carolina might wait to secede until the 8th.

As to the delegates walking out, there were eleven southern states plus three border states. So if one of those border states could be persuaded to join them then the election would be hung. What would happen next?

 

[hzn5pk]

The walkout would be highly unlikely.

You would get the first seven of South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Miss., LA, and Texas.

It will be more difficult to get NC, Virginia, TN, and Arkansas along with one of MO, KN, or Maryland.

But if there is solidarity in the South to avoid a Republican president it may just happen.

The Constitution does not cover the wht if 2/3 of the state blocs are not present to vote in the House after the electoral votes are counted.

Would it then go to the Supreme Court to decide how to contnue procedurally? Would a comission be formed from all of the states to decide on how to act? Would Congress just make some rules up? I would say that a commision would be made up to determine the next proceedings. The committee might even reach a compromise that would avoid the states seceding. This could take the rest of January and half of February.

Lincoln will become president he has too much support. If a compomise is not met which by this time the North is through with compromises, SC and the first seven will secede just that it will be at a later date say Feb 15 or so.

There is now only a few weeks between the first seven states leaving and Lincoln's innaguration, less time under the lame duck Buchanan and the surrender of Texas garrison under Twiggs may not occur. As tempers rise thouh, eventually one side will ignite the war as OTTL. The question will be where and when that happens and if the other four join the first seven afterwards.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

The likelihood of Douglas or Breckenridge bowing out in favor of the other is effectively nil.

If Douglas has a choice he'll either support Bell, which forces Breckenridge's supporters to also support Bell or ensure Lincoln winning, or Douglas will back Lincoln instead.

Certainly if the South walks out to stop a decision or secedes outright if it appears a Democrat winning is possible, let alone likely, it will look make them look extremely bad, possibly convincing one or two states(Tennessee? North Carolina?) to remain in the Union.

 

[Yelnoc]

Alrighty then.

Say Douglas decides to support Bell, giving Bell a total of 5 votes. After further discussion, the hardcore seven walk out of the negotiations, leaving Breckinridge's other supporters (Arkansas, North Carolina, Maryland, Deleware) to their own devices. I assume that Maryland and Deleware would support Bell; I think North Carolina would too, though I don't know about Arkansas.

Assuming that Lincoln is still elected by his 17 vote majority and those seven stil secede, how will all of Bell's states (minus New York) react?

This map shows the above scenario with the seccionists in Green (and SC's Cyan), safely Union states blue, and Bell's states (border states) in Yellow.

 

[GreatScottMarty]

I think it still goes relatively close to our TL

N. Missouri and St. Louis go Union, Partisan fighting in the south.

Arkansas: I know nothing about it but I could imagine they would go neutral like Kentucky in OTL.

Maryland: will not be allowed to secede and Union troops will be sent in as well as Habeas Corpus will be suspended.

Virginia: This is the big question? I think this depends upon what the politicians say.

Delaware stays in

Kentucky, Tennessee, and NC go CSA

 

[Yelnoc]

It depends on the composition of each state delegation. Each state gets one vote, when the election gets to the House, and each state delegation has to decide who they're going to vote for. That would be interesting, considering how California and Oregon have Democratic Congressional delegations. Five of the nine representatives from Lincoln's home state of Illinois are Democratic. It would get fairly ugly. Also, Bell is out, because the House election only includes the top three candidates.

It looks like I should have read this more closely. With Bell out, would his supporters go to Douglas or Breckinridge?

Also, can anyone tell if there is a site that lists all of the state delegations in 1860?

 

[NKVD]

It looks like I should have read this more closely. With Bell out, would his supporters go to Douglas or Breckinridge?

Also, can anyone tell if there is a site that lists all of the state delegations in 1860?

The Wikipedia article you linked to lists the state delegations. I think Bell's supporters would go to Breckinridge.

 

[Mikey]

The Southern states do have one more option: the vice presidency. If they can deny the House of Representatives the 2/3rds quorum, they're not necessarily bargaining with a full Constitutional crisis. If the Senate, by normal majority vote with a quorum in place, elects a Vice President, there is a President to be sworn in on March 4th.

I believe that the old Senate - with a large Democratic majority - would be the ones to make the choice, and they could elect Breckenridge's VP, Joseph Lane. With that completed they could storm out of the House, run out the clock, and inaugurate Lane.

 

[Yelnoc]

The Wikipedia article you linked to lists the state delegations. I think Bell's supporters would go to Breckinridge.

Yeah, for a while I didn't realize what you meant by delegations.

How about this scenario?

-Douglas wins New York; the election goes to the house
-Bell endorses Breckinridge. 162 votes are needed to win
-After the first round, Lincoln has 15, Breckinridge 87, and Douglas 36
-Douglas realizes that he can't win and drops out, endorsing Lincoln
-The second ballot gives Lincoln 152 and Breckinridge 90
-The third ballot shows no change (each ballot is held the next day, so that one was on the 10th)

Once it becomes obvious that the deadlock will remain, I assume that the seven will walk out. Would they necessarily secede, or would there be time for another ballot? If there was time, then would the remaining Southern Democrats just abstain their votes or would enough come off the fence to vote for Lincoln.

Assuming that they walk out and Lincoln still isn't elected then those seven would probably secede. Which states do you think would immediately join them, if any?

 

[Yelnoc]

The Southern states do have one more option: the vice presidency. If they can deny the House of Representatives the 2/3rds quorum, they're not necessarily bargaining with a full Constitutional crisis. If the Senate, by normal majority vote with a quorum in place, elects a Vice President, there is a President to be sworn in on March 4th.

I believe that the old Senate - with a large Democratic majority - would be the ones to make the choice, and they could elect Breckenridge's VP, Joseph Lane. With that completed they could storm out of the House, run out the clock, and inaugurate Lane.

That's right, I hadn't realized that. If Lane became President, who do you think would be his VP? How would the Republicans react to that?

 

[Mikey]

That's right, I hadn't realized that. If Lane became President, who do you think would be his VP? How would the Republicans react to that?

Nobody. There was no procedure to replace a vacancy in the vice presidency until the 20th century. In the event Lane died, he would have been replaced by the president pro tempore of the Senate, but tie votes were unbreakable.

Although it's possible that Lane would interpret his role merely as Acting President, and also retain the powers of the vice presidency. It's also not entirely clear if the House's ability to elect a president is permanently voided on March 4th. How the Supreme Court would rule there is really anyone's guess.

 

[Yelnoc]

Nobody. There was no procedure to replace a vacancy in the vice presidency until the 20th century. In the event Lane died, he would have been replaced by the president pro tempore of the Senate, but tie votes were unbreakable.

Although it's possible that Lane would interpret his role merely as Acting President, and also retain the powers of the vice presidency. It's also not entirely clear if the House's ability to elect a president is permanently voided on March 4th. How the Supreme Court would rule there is really anyone's guess.

I just did a little number crunching, and it looks like if you break down the house into Hamlin and Lane supporters, Hamlin actual has the majority, 35 to 31. That's because Douglas endorsed the Lincoln ticket (in this scenario), so all of the not-southerndems supported Hamlin (excluding Jesse Bright of Indiana who was a confederate sympathizer). So it looks like that strategy wouldn't work for the SoDems unless I missed something.

 

[Mikey]

I just did a little number crunching, and it looks like if you break down the house into Hamlin and Lane supporters, Hamlin actual has the majority, 35 to 31. That's because Douglas endorsed the Lincoln ticket (in this scenario), so all of the not-southerndems supported Hamlin (excluding Jesse Bright of Indiana who was a confederate sympathizer). So it looks like that strategy wouldn't work for the SoDems unless I missed something.

Hmm - here's another option: would it be possible for the Democrats to reach a compromise around Herschel Vespasian Johnson? If Breckenridge/Lane had their electors vote for Breckenridge/Johnson, he would be able to be in the top two and thus be allowed in the Senate vote. Assuming Douglas Democrats would support him, his future as a Confederate senator suggests that he would be amenable to the Southern front.

 

[Yelnoc]

Hmm - here's another option: would it be possible for the Democrats to reach a compromise around Herschel Vespasian Johnson? If Breckenridge/Lane had their electors vote for Breckenridge/Johnson, he would be able to be in the top two and thus be allowed in the Senate vote. Assuming Douglas Democrats would support him, his future as a Confederate senator suggests that he would be amenable to the Southern front.

That is a very interesting idea. A canidate with the support of the entire Democratic Party would win the Senate. Thanks very much.

 

[Yelnoc]

So I did some more math for a Breckinridge Johnson ticket. It turns out that, assuming all of the Republicans remain loyal to Lincoln/Hamlin, both houses will remain locked.

House
Lincoln: 115
Breckinridge: 123
two-thirds majority: 162

Senate
Hamlin: 26
Johnson: 40
two-thirds majority: 44

However, this concept is by far my favorite. I am trying to think of ways that I could get four Republicans to turn coat.