I don’t think that any historical proposal was ever out fourth, so this is very hypothetical.
Let’s say Nicholas realized the extent that Russia was falling apart in late 1916, seeing their exhaustion the breakdown of their society and infrastructure, the sheer economic cost, the probability of defeat, and the probability of the end of their dynasty. Karl has just taken the thrown and sends out a peace offer immediately. Russia and Austria begin negotiations and more or less decide that on a status quo ante bellum, but in order to give the public a perception of victory they allow each other to continue their wars on other fronts. They bring Germany in on this and the Germany ultimately decides that as Turnip Winter begins this is their best option.
So Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia agree to throw their allies under the bus in around Christmas, and agree to return to their prewar borders.
Russia can continue to pursue its war against the Ottoman Empire and take whatever it can. Russia tells Germany and Austria that they can do what they want with France, Italy, Belgium, Serbia, and Romania if they win. Germany could try citing the Armenian Genocide as a reason to stop supporting the OE; I don’t know if Russia can come up with an excuse. Note: Russia is not going to war with its old allies and Germany/AH are not going to war with the Ottoman Empire.
Trade is able to resume between Russia and the CP at the start of 1917.
What is the fallout here?
Let’s say Nicholas realized the extent that Russia was falling apart in late 1916, seeing their exhaustion the breakdown of their society and infrastructure, the sheer economic cost, the probability of defeat, and the probability of the end of their dynasty. Karl has just taken the thrown and sends out a peace offer immediately. Russia and Austria begin negotiations and more or less decide that on a status quo ante bellum, but in order to give the public a perception of victory they allow each other to continue their wars on other fronts. They bring Germany in on this and the Germany ultimately decides that as Turnip Winter begins this is their best option.
So Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia agree to throw their allies under the bus in around Christmas, and agree to return to their prewar borders.
Russia can continue to pursue its war against the Ottoman Empire and take whatever it can. Russia tells Germany and Austria that they can do what they want with France, Italy, Belgium, Serbia, and Romania if they win. Germany could try citing the Armenian Genocide as a reason to stop supporting the OE; I don’t know if Russia can come up with an excuse. Note: Russia is not going to war with its old allies and Germany/AH are not going to war with the Ottoman Empire.
Trade is able to resume between Russia and the CP at the start of 1917.
What is the fallout here?