What if LBJ never said "I Shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President" in March of 1968? Would he have won the Democratic nomination? If he did, would he have beaten Nixon in the General election? If he lost, would he have faired better than Hubert Humphrey in OTL?
What if LBJ chose to seek another term in 1968
- Thread starter dw93
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I know he dropped out for that reason (I think it was the Wisconsin primary that he polled low), I'm just curious about how he would've fared had he stayed in.
OMG I was just thinking about making a thread on this SAME TOPIC!
I'm an LBJ fan, but I think he would've not fared well at all. Nam was too damn unpopular. Plus there were the race riots. I think if he had succeeded in getting an agreement with Vietnam in his secret peace talks in October, he may have been able to win. My concern is his health. Would he survive his term? In OTL, he died in January 1973, which was when the term would've ended, but he drove himself to it. With the stress of four more years, I think it's very likely he dies in the term, and Humphrey becomes President. That would be interesting. If LBJ DOES manage to win in 1968, what happens to Nixon?I largely agree. If he did win the nomination, he would've barely won it, and unless he does succeed in getting his agreement with the Peace talks in October of '68, I think LBJ would lose to Nixon (although I do think an Johnson vs. Nixon campaign in 1968 would've been a sight).OMG I was just thinking about making a thread on this SAME TOPIC!
As to whether he would've survived his term, I don't think he would've unfortunately. He probably would've made it to at the latest 1971 assuming his second full term is similar to Nixon's first term of OTL. I do think that we would've gotten out of Vietnam sooner had LBJ or Humphrey won in 1968.
I would pay good money to see LBJ vs Nixon.
I'd root for LBJ, but I'm biased. Sure, Johnson could be corrupt (see: 1948 Senate election), but he wasn't like Nixon. I can't see LBJ having a Watergate type incident when he's President. Speaking of Watergate, how does LBJ react to the release of the Pentagon Papers? Does Ellsberg still release the Pentagon Papers with LBJ staying in office instead of Nixon? Part of me says he would anyway. But the release of Pentagon Papers following the OTL would destroy LBJ because it showed how much he misled the nation and Congress. Could LBJ be impeached because of it? That would be horrible! However, if LBJ DOES die in 1971, it depends when in the year he dies. The Papers were released in June 1971. If LBJ dies before then, he won't be questioned. If it's AFTER June, he would certainly be questioned about it. However, if he's not in good health, he might get a pass. I wish he would give an honest answer for why he did what he did. Course with the credibility gap, even if he was totally honest, people would not believe him. He would have to prove he was being honest, and I don't know how he would be able to do that. Okay, enough of my rambling. I would pay good money to see LBJ vs Nixon.
Battle of the Magnificent Bastards!
shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
Taxation and Vietnam hindered Johnson's last few years as President, as did race riots and the backlash against the Great Society. I Johnson runs, Nixon would beat him.
OMG I was just thinking about making a thread on this SAME TOPIC!
I thought Johnson basically let himself go after '68, which was why his health was in such a bad state by '73. He didn't care anymore after 1968 as I understand it. The same isn't true here, so he has a good chance of living through his term.
Ahem, note the bolded line:
Also, as an LBJ nerd, I know that all Johnson men tended not to live much past their 60s. Lyndon was 64 when he died in OTL. Even if he took better care of himself, I don't see him living that much longer.
Ahem, note the bolded line:
Also, as an LBJ nerd, I know that all Johnson men tended not to live much past their 60s. Lyndon was 64 when he died in OTL. Even if he took better care of himself, I don't see him living that much longer.
I'm reading the first volume of Caro's LBJ biographies and I think he would have carried through his second term on sheer will, before dying immediately after leaving office. Not too dissimilar to James Polk.
I LOVE the Caro LBJ volumes! That was what made me the LBJ nut I am now.
Heard volume 4 on audio CD (27 CDS!), currently working through Volume 3 (44 CDS!!! )Oh, please. There was very little if anything politically that Lyndon Johnson considered himself above. He was every bit as power-hungry as Nixon if not more so. At least Nixon never stole an election as did Johnson in 1948. And the only reason that Nixon is considered the poster boy for corruption in high places is that Watergate, not authorized by Nixon but condoned after the fact, was clumsy and was caught during its execution. It's a pretty good bet that someone as venal, vain, paranoid and ambitious as Lyndon Johnson allowed/condoned similar undocumented escapades; they simply were more under the radar and not as amateurish.
Given the choice between Johnson and Nixon, I'd take Nixon any day of the week with no regrets.
OMG I was just thinking about making a thread on this SAME TOPIC!
I'm not so sure about LBJ dying. Sure his health was not good and the stress of the job probably would have sent him over the edge. However by the time he died he had lost the will to live and may have a few years left in him if he has a 'purpose' in life being President, instead of wearing away on his ranch in Texas.
He'll probably lose to Nixon.
Regarding his health if he does win, there are reasons to believe he might live longer but also reasons to believe he might die sooner. In OTL, he let himself go after losing the White House and effectively committed suicide via cigarettes and weight gain. If he takes care of himself better, that could extend his lifespan. On the other hand, the Presidency is a notoriously stressful job that ages people really fast. Just look up some pictures of Presidents before and after their terms. That could kill him quicker. My guess is that the two effects cancel one another out and he dies roughly the same time as OTL: either right at the end of his term or shortly after he leaves office.
Regarding his health if he does win, there are reasons to believe he might live longer but also reasons to believe he might die sooner. In OTL, he let himself go after losing the White House and effectively committed suicide via cigarettes and weight gain. If he takes care of himself better, that could extend his lifespan. On the other hand, the Presidency is a notoriously stressful job that ages people really fast. Just look up some pictures of Presidents before and after their terms. That could kill him quicker. My guess is that the two effects cancel one another out and he dies roughly the same time as OTL: either right at the end of his term or shortly after he leaves office.