What if the Labour Party had won a majority in the 2002 NZ election(link)? Polling at the time showed that Labour was at or above 50% of the vote, which even in a proportional MMP system would mean a majority of seats. However, a volatile campaign led to Labour in the end only getting 41.26% of the vote and 52 seats, though Labour still managed to form a government easily on those numbers. To this day, no party has won an outright majority in New Zealand elections since 1993(aka under MMP), though the National Party in 2011 and 2014 came close(and even this year they won a majority of seats in one Newshub poll).
Here's some polling data as evidence:
What if Labour had won an overall majority? The book Voter's Veto identifies three main events in the campaign that changed the course of the race to deny Labour and Helen Clark a majority; the 'Paintergate' scandal when Prime Minister Clark was accused of fraud for having claimed to have painted a painting she actually just signed, the 'Corngate' scandal in which the government was accused of covering up the release of GM corn into NZ, and the 'worm' debate-which was won by United Future leader Peter Dunne based on a strong showing by him in the worm which showed the reactions of undecided voters during the debate, and United Future surged from the very low to high single digits. Voter's Veto identifies 'Paintergate' and 'the worm' as the most important causes of Labour's failure to win a majority, saying that 'It was not the Campbell interview(Corngate) but Paintergate and the worm that did the most damage to Labour. Paintergate hit Clark where she was strongest-her trustworthiness and competence-not fatally, but seriously nonetheless. The worm provided voters to the right of Labour with an alternative that was more consistent with their policy preferences.' I eliminated Paintergate and the worm-but kept Corngate-to create alternate 2002 results.
2002 NZ election
Helen Clark-Labour: 61+12 48.58%
Bill English-National: 28-11 22.58%
Winston Peters-NZ First: 11+6 8.43%
Richard Prebble-ACT: 9_ 7.05%
Rod Donald/Jeanette Fitzsimons-Green: 8+1 6.74%
Jim Anderton-Progressive: 2+2 1.67%
Peter Dunne-United Future: 1_ 1.19%
Laila Harre(lost seat)-Alliance: 0-10 1.17%
120 seats
61 for majority
What would be the effects of these results on NZ politics? How would Helen Clark's premiership go differently? What would a majority government under MMP be like? What would be the effect on the National Party? What would be the long-term effects? What if?
Here's some polling data as evidence:
What if Labour had won an overall majority? The book Voter's Veto identifies three main events in the campaign that changed the course of the race to deny Labour and Helen Clark a majority; the 'Paintergate' scandal when Prime Minister Clark was accused of fraud for having claimed to have painted a painting she actually just signed, the 'Corngate' scandal in which the government was accused of covering up the release of GM corn into NZ, and the 'worm' debate-which was won by United Future leader Peter Dunne based on a strong showing by him in the worm which showed the reactions of undecided voters during the debate, and United Future surged from the very low to high single digits. Voter's Veto identifies 'Paintergate' and 'the worm' as the most important causes of Labour's failure to win a majority, saying that 'It was not the Campbell interview(Corngate) but Paintergate and the worm that did the most damage to Labour. Paintergate hit Clark where she was strongest-her trustworthiness and competence-not fatally, but seriously nonetheless. The worm provided voters to the right of Labour with an alternative that was more consistent with their policy preferences.' I eliminated Paintergate and the worm-but kept Corngate-to create alternate 2002 results.
2002 NZ election
Helen Clark-Labour: 61+12 48.58%
Bill English-National: 28-11 22.58%
Winston Peters-NZ First: 11+6 8.43%
Richard Prebble-ACT: 9_ 7.05%
Rod Donald/Jeanette Fitzsimons-Green: 8+1 6.74%
Jim Anderton-Progressive: 2+2 1.67%
Peter Dunne-United Future: 1_ 1.19%
Laila Harre(lost seat)-Alliance: 0-10 1.17%
120 seats
61 for majority
What would be the effects of these results on NZ politics? How would Helen Clark's premiership go differently? What would a majority government under MMP be like? What would be the effect on the National Party? What would be the long-term effects? What if?