What if Kurt von Schleicher stayed chancellor longer

What if Kurt von Schleicher had somehow remained chancellor still the death of President Paul von Hindenburg?
what happens next:
  • In the election to selected the next president Hitler runs wins and becomes president meaning Hitler rise to power was just delayed by a few months
  • Kurt von Schleicher takes power as dictator with posible restoration of German Empire
  • A different option
 
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What if Kurt von Schleicher had somehow remained chancellor still the death of President Paul von Hindenburg?
what happens next:
  • In the election to selected the next president Hitler runs wins and becomes president meaning Hitler rise to power was just delayed by a few months
  • Kurt von Schleicher takes power as dictator with posible restoration of German Empire
  • A different option
Yes, this confusing period in which Germany had several different chancellors in relatively quick succession— I think is rich with possibility and could have potentially played out very differently.

Which means, no World War II, no Holocaust.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Kurt v.Schleicher staying chancellor in January 1933 would necessitate that Hindenburg especially trust him (much ? somewhat?) more than his 'counselling' entourage like his son and not at least v.Papen, perhaps the latter even distrusting (maybe someone tolds the "ol' man" one more time the rather ridiculous figure v.Papen made when forced to leave the US of A during the Great War).

With the trust of Hindenburg still equipped he possibly would be able to push through with the plan he had of a coup d'etat from above :
  • Hindenburg declares a state of emergency
  • With this state of emergency the Reichstag is dissolved WITHOUT any date set for a reelection
  • The goverment rules only by Article 48 of the constitution (if they would feel the need) for as long as this state of emergency is lifted.
At least this part some lawyers specialized in state law rendered as still within the confines of law and constitution (most ... interesting in this respect might be Carl Schmitt. IIRC Schleicher asked and got such an expertise as above from him).
Schleicher also considered in the longer run to change important parts of the the constitution esp. regarding the rights of the Reichstag with the using Article 48, in the extrem even re-introducing the monarchy.
While the first was something also regarded possible and somewhat juridicallly covered by said lawyers from what I got the latter was more of a late evening cognac-fueled fireplace dream.



As this might be the/a variant how Schleicher stays in power and what he might have in mind in the longer run, ... what now ?

With the above enacted (state of emergency) probably the first he might do is constraining all political parties, groups and movements in their means of activity. As due to the dissolution of the Reichstag without a scheduled reelction there is no need for 'political activity', isn't it ?
As this would ofc and especially be administered at the most 'obvious' means of activity :
the political 'fighting formations' (esp. SA/SS and Roter Frontkämpferbund) which will very likely start to ... fight back.​
The Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold despite being the largest in numbers (about 1.5 million - realistical - in late 1932) would IMHO rather stand aloof such fights, as they considerd themself more commited to public peace and a working goverment than ideological fighting (maybe with the exception of its split-off of the Sozialistischer Schutzbund).​
What would ofc (as planned ?) immediatly lead to these organisations being banned. As well as possibly/rather likely their not only ideological leaders - esp. Hitler, Thälmann, Röhm - being taken into 'protective custody'; together with everyone supporting them if theese wouldn't be able to see the writings on the wall and try to leave the country - or simply flee ASAP.

With the Reichswehr rather small compared to theese formations (esp. the SA, about 260.000 in Dec. 1932, the "Reds" up to 100.000, Reichsbanner see above) mentioned and by'n'large still unwilling to be once again embroiled in 'political affairs' as 1919 to 1921 even if it might be in the name of 'Honored Hero Hindenburg' I could see the Stahlhelm, the 2nd largest (about 500.000 men of all age-classes) of the weimeranian paramilitias, become 'engaged' as kinda 'deputy-police' force.
Despite its ... misstep at first at the presidential election in 1932 (wich was largly ascribed to Hugenberg) it was seen - in conservative to militarian circles - the most 'unpolitical' as un-ideological. It was also regarded by the militaries as the most 'trustworthy' also in terms of inofficial addition to the Reichswehrs fighting potential.

Oh, ... and ... this would NOT mean much of an invilvement of the Hugenberg DNVP in govermental affairs. As already hinted at :
Hugenberg was at that time one of the most 'unwanted' within the govermental/civil-service - regardles how right-wing - establishment.​
With whatever political enterprised he started was always rendered too late or too small with what offered or far too demanding.​
His reprehensible behavior during the presidential election was far from forgotten as he was seen as the 'mastermind' responsible for the Stahlhelm candidates.​
The Stahlhelm was by far Hugenbergs or the DNVPs puppy. The organisation as a whole, its members and its leadership saw themself as standing above politics though 'right-wing' and pro-militarian. ... and would welcome to be engaged by an itself as such framing 'unpolitical' goverment.
However, in the longer run in a reversal of OTL SA-members might search 'cover' within the Stahlhelm and 'selected' members and/or parts of might be incorporated.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Some further thoughts :

Schleicher would IMHO not outright forbid the political parties as such. They were just too obvious and effective a means of controlling and watching whatever political developments there might be. He would rather search their support in controlling the 'masses' and keep them quiet.
We even might see a return of Gregor Strasser to get the NSDAP under a collaborating leadership. Strasser would still be able to muster the majority of the party establishment and functionaries, the otherwise 'silent majority' compared to the oh so loud and prominent arch-Nazis and arch-antisemitic-racists as Streicher, Goebbels, Esser. These blokes might try to keep something running but they would likely fail as they tried and failed - aside Strasser - after 1923.
Streicher also had already befor build some - though rather clandestine - connection with trade unioners as the more 'unpolitical' branch of marxism. And with him implementing something like the Reinhardt-programs for job creation (the financial means he had already secured in late 1932, Reinhardt just 'hopped' on a train already steamed up) he might also be able to catch on the more centrist parts of the SPD for supporting him in the beginning - lets say until ... summer 1933 ?
 
By late 1932, the German economy had begun to recover; thus the decline in NSDAP vote in the second 1932 election. The NSDAP was also effectively broke, with Brownshirts begging for money on street corners. Schleicher had initiated a large public works program which by summer 1933 would be relieving unemployment further. A third election then would probably return a majority of non-NSDAP/Communist Reichstag deputies, allowing the formation of a proper ministry, which would continue until Hindenburg dies in August 1934. (That's if the SDP, DNVP, and Zentrum can agree to share power.)

The question is whether Hitler can hang on through this period. The Party and especially the Brownshirts were swarming with radicals calling for direct action. The Nazis have been "at the gates of power" for about a year but to no effect. Now the Brown tide is ebbing. Would Röhm perhaps try for power on his own? If he does, or Hitler does, most likely the Reichswehr puts down the rebellion, and the Nazis are discredited. If the putsch succeeds, though...

If no putsch - then Hindenburg dies, and there is a presidential election. Hitler will be the front-runner, as in 1932, but fading rather than rising. Who else would run? Thalmann for the Communists again. Wilhelm Marx for the SPD? But ISTM the SPD has baggage at this time. Not Schleicher, IMO. Would there be a compromise candidate that everyone but the KPD and NSDAP could back? In 1932, even the SPD backed Hindenburg in preference to Hitler. Von Lettow-Vorbeck has been suggested. Would he even have been interested? IMO if the SPD and DNVP can agree on someone, that candidate would beat HItler.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
By late 1932, the German economy had begun to recover; thus the decline in NSDAP vote in the second 1932 election. ...
IMHO the wrong "reasoning". It was NOT the not yet by contemporaries - especially the larger populce aside maybe some very few hopefull economy cracks - actually unregistered just beginning by us late-born reconstructed economical recovery taht caused the declin of the NASDAP but ...
... The Nazis have been "at the gates of power" for about a year but to no effect. Now the Brown tide is ebbing. ...

due to Hitlers stubborn unwillingness to make any compromise.
Hitler didn't want to go through the already open "gates of power" if not rose-leaves strawn on a red carpet under his boots.
That actually costed the electorial support.
And despite "condemning" Gregor Strasser to look for some compromise (mainly because Hitler wasn't involved ?) in the end (of January 1933) he made quite some compromises with aside him only two further NSDAP ministers : Frick for Minister for domestic affairs and Göring as Minister without portfolio. ... not much of a "power" faction within cabinet ...


... If no putsch - then Hindenburg dies, and there is a presidential election. Hitler will be the front-runner, as in 1932, but fading rather than rising. Who else would run? Thalmann for the Communists again. ...
Who would Hitler have been running against for Reichspraesident? I'm not so sure he would've won...
... only that Hitler as well as Thälmann and/or Torgeler would be either imprisoned - erhmm :taking into "custody" or dwell in maybe questionable safety in some foreign country at the time Hindenburg will die.


With Schleicher staying in power question would be : when ? does he enact his plan as described above ?
Regardless the several theories, conspirational or other attempts of explanation who actually was responsible for it to happen ... IMHO the Reichstagsbrand on 27th February would still happen.
A "Reichstags Fire decree" by Hindenburg being IMHO also a certain for his palladine Schleicher. Likely followed by Nazis as well as communists and the members of their aforemention "fighing formations" being put into custody.
Shortly after that Hindenburg might declare - on request of Schleicher - a "full" state of emergency and hand over the "all executive power" to Schleicher, similar to how Ebert did with Seeckt in 1923. ... only this time with no inbuilt limitation what would lead to the furtehr course of actions I've described already above.
 
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IMHO the wrong "reasoning". It was NOT the not yet by contemporaries - especially the larger populce aside maybe some very few hopefull economy cracks - actually unregistered just beginning by us late-born reconstructed economical recovery taht caused the declin of the NASDAP but ...
This is completely incoherent.
due to Hitlers stubborn unwillingness to make any compromise.
Hitler didn't want to go through the already open "gates of power" if not rose-leaves strawn on a red carpet under his boots.
He wanted to be Chancellor, not a supporting member of a coalition. For the leader of by far the biggest party, this was not an unreasonable position.
...in the end (of January 1933) [Hitler] made quite some compromises with aside him only two further NSDAP ministers : Frick for Minister for domestic affairs and Göring as Minister without portfolio. ... not much of a "power" faction within cabinet ...
He was Chancellor, and Göring was also Minister of the Interior for Prussia, with control of police forces throughout the "state" of Prussia, which was about half of Germany. The Nazis used Hitler and Göring's powers to crack down on the SDP and KPD even before the Reichstag Fire; also, I believe, to provide state resources to the NSDAP.
... only that Hitler as well as Thälmann and/or Torgeler would be either imprisoned - erhmm :taking into "custody" or dwell in maybe questionable safety in some foreign country at the time Hindenburg will die.
Would Schleicher actually be able to arrest Hitler? Or Thalmann? If Hitler was arrested, would that provoke a general rising by the SA?
Regardless the several theories, conspirational or other attempts of explanation who actually was responsible for it to happen ... IMHO the Reichstagsbrand on 27th February would still happen.
IMO Van der Lubbe was telling the truth, and he said he was moved to act at that time by "fascist rule", i.e. Hitler's being Chancellor. So if no Chancellor Hitler, no Fire.
 
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NoMommsen

Donor
This is completely incoherent.
Incoherent to what ?
The further rising numbers of jobless ?​
The growing gap between the majorities incomes and costs of living ?​
The further diminishing of social benefit payments ?​

These were the reasons that caused to a great extend the election success of the NSDAP in the July election and these factors were perceived still further worsening until the November election by the majority of the electorate. ... and not some 'artificial' economical indicies or ratings or whatever.
Therefore it must have been something else what caused the electorate to turn away from Hitler and NOT whatever claimed economical recovery invisible to the overwhelming majority of contemporaries.
He wanted to be Chancellor, not a supporting member of a coalition. For the leader of by far the biggest party, this was not an unreasonable position.
Maybe he had some point in claiming chancelorship by his electoral victory. ... only that electorial success didn't count much at this time of the development of the political life of the Weimar Republik.
... as well as with Hindenburg and the govermental establishment/civil service.
... and also not for Hitler.
He wanted not only Chancelorship but also the right to appoint ALL of the goverment aka all ministries of the Reich including even the Reichswehr with men of his choice aka Nazis.
He also wanted ALL power in Prussia aka the position of the overall "Reichskommissar" for Prussia who then appointed the single "Kommissars" for finance, internal affairs, economy etc. ... not a single Kommissar of internal affairs submitted (at least officially and administratively, Göring first had to "win over" his powers from the civil servants in place - not a too easy and quicl task)to the Reichkommissar for the whole who even after 30th January 1933 was still von Papen.
Hitler also demanded the unquestioned support of the Reichspresident in issuing order under the pretext of Article 48 as Hitler perceived it Hindenburg had done to Brüning and von Papen so far what was simply not true. Brüning as well as von Papen had to deliver quite some arguing by the then rendered experts of the civil service in their respective fields (agriculture, finance, industry, economy, etc.) to get their decrees signed by the old man. Brünings memoirs as well as the rembrances of the leader of the presidential bureau Otto Meißner are telling in that respect.

And Hitler was unwilling and unable to negotiate at all or even think of some kind of compromise. The "negotiations" in that respect in OTL consited of a few preliminarey indirect contacts between Schleicher and v.Papen with Göring and Strasserr IIRC and one single meeting with Hindenburg lasting not even half an hour in which Hitler simply "demanded" ... full stop.
He was Chancellor, and Göring was also Minister of the Interior for Prussia, with control of police forces throughout the "state" of Prussia, which was about half of Germany. The Nazis used Hitler and Göring's powers to crack down on the SDP and KPD even before the Reichstag Fire; also, I believe, to provide state resources to the NSDAP.
And compared to what he demanded in summer 1932 - see above - he got truly only few.
It should also not be forgotten that the by everyone as such perceived most powerfull post - leader of the Reichswehr aka Reichswehrminister Blomberg - was selected and inaugurated even befor Hitler and without Hitler's say in it.
... despite the claimed "closeness" of his Chief of staff Reichenau to the NSDAP.

Hmmm, if ... your "looting theory" would have some substance at all then why for heavens sake did Hitler and Göring have to arrabge for the "secret" meeting with economists on 20th February (almost) forcing them to ... erhmm ... "donate" 3 million plus RM for the NSDAP ?

Would Schleicher actually be able to arrest Hitler? Or Thalmann? If Hitler was arrested, would that provoke a general rising by the SA?
YES. Pls read all of my posts.
IMO Van der Lubbe was telling the truth, and he said he was moved to act at that time by "fascist rule", i.e. Hitler's being Chancellor. So if no Chancellor Hitler, no Fire.
Ofc. you are entitled to have your own opinion and belief about van der Lubbe. But your interpretation and selected acceptance of sources of the events around the Reichstags fire are somewhat ... simplicistic.
Van der Lubbe had a revolutionary communist prehistory including being even too radical for the "mainstream" communists in the Netherlands. He also traveld Germany at least in transit already before 1933.
And as it seems he was invited to Berlin by germans at least known to his then internationalist communist group . There he lobbied within german communist groups for an 'direct action'. Soemthing he did already in the Netherlands but noone listened to him there. ... as reported by german communists and GDR funktionaries after the war

However, if not Marinus van der Lubbe ... then just jump on another of the many explanation attempts of who actually was responsible for the fire : the Nazis themself.
Or in the mentioned scenario : Schleicher let's some strawman/men fire up the Reichstag or something else.

IMHO there are quite some chances for this fire to happen in the spring of 1933 even ITTL.

As said, your equation :
no Chancelorship of Hitler​
=> no fire of the Reichstag​
=> no emergency decrees and follow ups​
is IMHO just too simple to fit even on OTL.
 
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